Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Equitable Growth, Finance & Institutions Insight

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Taking Stock, March 2023: Harnessing the Potential of the Services Sector or Growth

(Washington DC, 2023-03-14) World Bank

The services sector has been a critical contributor to economic growth in Vietnam but its performance lags comparators The services sector has been the economy’s largest sector for the past decade. Looking ahead, services could play a crucial role in supporting Vietnam to sustain productivity growth and achieve its ambition to become a high-income economy by 2045. However, the performance of Vietnam’s services sector lags peer countries. Small scale of firms, restrictions to services trade, low technological adoption and few inter-sectoral linkages affect productivity. Based on the preliminary analysis presented in this report, the four broad policy directions can be identified. First, Vietnam could further reduce restrictions to services trade and foreign investment. Second, Vietnam should encourage further adoption of digital technologies within firms to spur innovation. Third, focus should be on strengthening workers skills especially basic digital skills and the capabilities of firms and managers. Lastly, Vietnam should leverage services to promote further growth of other sectors, especially manufacturing.
Rwanda Economic Update, February 2023: Making the most of Nature Based Tourism in Rwanda

(Washington, DC, 2023-02) World Bank

The Rwandan economy continued to achieve strong growth in 2022 in the face of weakening external demand and restrictive monetary policies required to control inflation. Rising food prices particularly affected the poor, who devote a large share of their spending to food and appear to have faced higher food inflation than richer households did. Growth is expected to decline somewhat in 2023 and then to recover closer to historical rates over the medium term. Tourism is a major source of Rwanda’s foreign exchange earnings and tends to generate a higher proportion of formal sector jobs than other sectors and could make a substantial contribution to growth. Within tourism, strengthening the provision of nature-based tourism, which accounts for eight percent of leisure and conference visitors in Rwanda would also help protect biodiversity and advance Rwanda’s efforts to adapt to climate change. Nature-based tourism faces significant challenges, including potential limits on expansion of revenues from one of the primary international attractions - gorilla trekking, degradation of the natural assets that underpin the sector, risks presented by infectious diseases, habitat change and overexploitation, and the impact of climate change on tourism demand. Key measures to promote nature-based tourism will need to include expanding the network of protected areas and improving management of the natural assets within and outside protected areas and diversifying the nature-based tourism’s offering while complementing efforts to diversify tourism activities. Efforts are required to enhance revenue sharing mechanisms to increase incentives for local communities to conserve natural assets and unlock new opportunities and community-led enterprises that generate revenue from tourism and sustainable management of natural resources, including forests. This is essential to address poverty, to mitigate poaching threats, other illegal activities, and reduce unsustainable exploitation of resources. It is also imperative to secure private sector participation in financing and operation of facilities by introducing innovative financing methods to secure the necessary investment, strengthening capacity and management of tourism facilities and services, and removing subsidies that contribute to environmental degradation.
Malaysia Economic Monitor, February 2023: Expanding Malaysia’s Digital Frontier

(Washington, DC, 2023-02) World Bank

Global growth has slowed markedly, edging closer to falling into recession. Meanwhile, growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, excluding China rebounded, diverging from the global trend, as mobility restrictions were removed. Malaysia’s growth during the quarter was also the highest relative to other regional countries. Like its regional peers, the Malaysian economy bucked the global trend and recorded a strong growth in Q3 2022. Malaysia’s strong performance in Q3 2022 - and for 2022 overall - was in part due likely to the withdrawals from the employee’s provident fund (EPF) which contributed to higher private consumption in Malaysia than in other countries. In addition, improved labor market conditions, other government policy measures such as the increase in the minimum wage and cash assistance programs such as Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia provided additional support. On the supply side, all economic sectors expanded during the period.
Indonesia Economic Prospects : Trade for Growth and Economic Transformation

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-12) World Bank

The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global trade and supply chains, exacerbating the rise in global commodity and food prices. Persistently high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth brings fears of stagflation that could endure for several years. Amidst this environment, the US Federal Reserve and other advanced economy central banks sharply tightened monetary policy to curb inflation. This has translated into tighter external financing conditions and financial stress for some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as capital outflows have intensified. Despite global slowdown, Indonesia has experienced strong growth in 2022 thanks to commodity windfalls and a reopening of the economy. Indonesia’s external vulnerability has been low to moderate as strong exports have supported the external balance although tighter global finances have put some pressure on the capital account. Indonesia is projected to have a robust growth over the next three years though with significant downside risks emanating from the global economic environment. To address current macrofiscal policy challenges, the report highlights three policy and institutional areas that may warrant attention going forward. The first is about continuing with the implementation of tax reforms to broaden the tax base and improve compliance of business tax collection. The second is related to public spending where the authorities could over time move towards a rules-based pricing model for energy to contain subsidy pressures. The third is improving targeting and expanding coverage of existing social assistance and social insurance programs. This means filling coverage gaps, developing a system that provides a guaranteed minimum protection across the lifecycle, and strengthening delivery systems.
Timor-Leste Economic Report, December 2022: Honoring the Past, Securing the Future

(Washington, DC, 2022-12) World Bank

The global economy continues to face steep challenges, but Timor-Leste’s economy is slowly recovering. Nevertheless, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Consumer price inflation reached 7.9 percent yoy in August 2022, one of the highest in the East Asia Pacific region. The real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated by about 10 percent since the first quarter of 2021. Enhancing productive capabilities through structural reforms and improving quality of public spending hold the key for accelerating and sustaining economic development. Extending the life of petroleum fund through fiscal consolidation is essential to delay the fiscal cliff and ensure the perpetuation of government spending to support economic growth. Despite receding impact of the pandemic, the level of government spending has not returned to the pre-COVID 19 levels.
Rwanda Economic Update, September 2022: Boosting Exports Through Technology, Innovation, and Trade in Services

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) World Bank Group

Rwanda’s economy staged a strong recovery in 2021. Inflationary pressures are mounting, leading the National Bank of Rwanda to tighten monetary policy. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to moderate in 2022-24, weighed down by the war in Ukraine. Fiscal consolidation and spending efficiencies will be introduced with the FY22-23 budget to preserve space for growth-enhancing investment. Rwandan firms’ participation in international trade has increased dramatically. Econometric analysis shows that obtaining International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certification, adoption of e-commerce and access to credit are significantly co-related to a Rwandan firm’s participation in exports. Innovation is significantly related to exports, although the relationship varies by sector and type of innovation. Rwanda is facing a skills deficit that, if not remedied, will constrain potential growth for high-skill services exports. Rwanda’s efforts to achieve international cooperation on services trade policies have been mixed. Rwanda should address its skills shortage by recognizing qualifications of regional professionals and abolishing work-permit regimes for all eligible regional professionals. However, the attraction of regional services providers should be accompanied by aggressive measures to help expand the number of Rwandan professionals.
Taking Stock, August 2022 : Educate to Grow

(Washington, DC, 2022-08) World Bank

As the two-year Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis appears to wane, new economic shocks have cast shadows over the global economy heightening uncertainty about the short-to-medium path to recovery. The supply shock associated with the war in Ukraine is expected to blunt the promising economic recovery around the world and has raised the specter of stagflation in advanced countries, leading to tightening conditions in global financial markets. Measures undertaken by China to control the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 are also impacting its growth and the performance of global value chains. Additional risks threaten the recovery prospects of the global economy. New COVID-19 variants continue to be a severe risk, and as people around the world grow weary of pandemic-measures, this ‘fatigue’ could hamper attempts at controlling the spread. Vietnam’s economy is rebounding after two bruising years but faces domestic challenges and an unfavorable external environment in the short-to-medium-term. High vaccination rates facilitated the re-opening of the Vietnamese economy after the lockdowns of Q3-2021. Chapter 1 of this Taking Stock report reviews the recent developments in Vietnam’s economy and assesses its short-to-medium term prospects. It examines the country’s growth performance, its external balance, and monetary and fiscal policy responses during the first half of 2022. Chapter 2 reviews the performance in tertiary education access and outcomes.
Liberia Economic Update: Investing in Human Capital for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) World Bank Group

This is the third edition of the Liberia Economic Update (LEU), a series of annual reports that assesses recent economic developments in Liberia and assists the government and its development partners in identifying emerging issues and addressing persistent challenges. It presents a broad overview of Liberia’s macroeconomic context, assesses the macro-fiscal and growth outlook over the short and medium terms, and sheds light on the state of human capital in Liberia. The rebound in global and domestic activity and higher prices of Liberia’s main exports helped improve the country’s economic performance in 2021. The government’s fiscal position improved in 2021 due to strong revenue growth and tight expenditure management. The appreciation of the Liberian dollar, coupled with prudent fiscal and monetary policies, helped stem inflation in 2021. Liberia’s current account deficit widened despite stronger export growth. As domestic activity picked up, increased exports were offset by the surge in imports. Liberia’s medium-term outlook is positive but subject to significant downside risks and uncertainties. The positive outlook is underpinned by significant tailwinds for mining, the government’s planned scale-up of public investment, and the implementation of structural reforms in key sectors, including agriculture and energy. On the downside, there are risks and uncertainties related to the path of the pandemic at home and abroad, the war in Ukraine, and the upcoming general elections in 2023.
Philippines Economic Update, June 2022: Strengthening the Digital Economy to Boost Domestic Recovery

(Washington, DC, 2022-06) World Bank

Digitalization represents a key driver for long-term economic growth. While the use of digital technology has accelerated during the pandemic, the Philippines has not fully leveraged its expected benefits. There has been progress in expanding digital connectivity, but challenges remain. The explosive digitalization during the pandemic requires policies to keep up with the pace of development of the digital economy.
Offshore Wind Roadmap for the Philippines

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-18) World Bank

This roadmap provides strategic analysis of the offshore wind development potential in the Philippines, considering the opportunities and challenges under different, hypothetical growth scenarios. The goal is to provide evidence to support the Government of the Philippines in establishing policy, regulations, processes, and infrastructure to enable successful growth of this new industry. The roadmap was initiated by the World Bank country team in the Philippines under the umbrella of the World Bank Group’s (WBG’s) Offshore Wind Development Program—which aims to accelerate offshore wind development in emerging markets—and was funded by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) in partnership with the International Finance Corporation (IFC).