Sector/Thematic Studies

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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Overcoming Poverty and Inequality in the Philippines: Past, Present, and Prospects for the Future

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

In the past three decades, the Philippines has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty. Driven by high growth rates and structural transformation, the poverty rate fell by two-thirds, from 49.2 percent in 1985 to 16.7 percent in 2018. By 2018, the middle class had expanded to nearly 12 million people and the economically secure population had risen to 44 million. This report is intended to inform public debate and policymaking on inequality in the Philippines. It synthesizes core findings from background analyses of the patterns of inequality and poverty and provides policy pointers. The analysis uses a wealth of data from a variety of sources (detailed in Appendix A). In what follows, section two discusses the poverty and inequality impacts of COVID-19. Section three analyzes what has been driving poverty and inequality over the past three decades. Section four discusses the structural causes of current inequality; and section five examines how they affect recovery patterns. The last section discusses how policy can promote equality and inclusive recovery.
Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2021: Staying Afloat

(World Bank, Kuala Lumpur, 2021-12-22) World Bank

Following the surge in COVID-19 infections in Q3 2021, Malaysia is gradually emerging from the worst wave of the pandemic. As a result, the Malaysian economy is expected to be on a recovery path next year. In the near-term, it is key to ensure that targeted support measures remain in place. The Malaysia Economic Monitor (MEM) consists of two parts. Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses on a selected special topic that is key to Malaysia’s medium-term development prospects and to the achievement of shared prosperity.
Philippines Economic Update, December 2021: Regaining Lost Ground, Revitalizing the Filipino Workforce

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-06) World Bank

The economic rebound gained momentum in the third quarter of 2021 despite another COVID-19 wave. The Philippines has, so far, faced its worst infection wave in September when the 7-day daily average reached about 21,000 cases due to the Delta variant. In response, the authorities reimposed stringent mobility restrictions in Metro Manila and other key metropolitan areas. Nonetheless, compared with previous waves, domestic activity has been less sensitive to infections. Public containment measures constrained overall mobility less, while households and firms have learned to cope with infections and diminished mobility. As a result, the growth momentum was not severely hampered, and the third quarter growth surprised on the upside, exceeding market expectations. The economy expanded by 4.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2021, rebounding from a 10.1 percent contraction over the same period in 2020. Although partially driven by base effects, the growth expansion also reflected an increase in economic activity despite the implementation of several lockdowns. Growth was supported by the industry sector, driven by double-digit growth in manufacturing and robust public construction activity. The services sector posted a more moderate expansion as some key services were subdued by mobility restriction measures. The agriculture sector contracted as farm and livestock outputs were impacted by typhoons and ongoing outbreak of African Swine Fever. Meanwhile, domestic demand improved, supported by a resurgence in public construction spending. Private consumption picked up but still tempered by elevated inflation and unemployment, mobility restrictions, and low consumer confidence. Public consumption growth eased, in part due to the base effects from the swift disbursement of fiscal support a year ago. The global economic recovery strengthened exports, although services trade remained weak. The fiscal stance remains supportive of economic recovery, but the policy space is narrowing. Public spending accelerated from 23.6 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 24.6 percent of GDP in the same period in 2021, in line with the recovery in public investment and ongoing fiscal support. Infrastructure outlays increased from 3.5 percent of GDP to 4.7 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2021, a result of the government’s push on investment spending as part of its recovery program. Meanwhile, public revenues fell from 16.8 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 16.3 percent of GDP over the same period in 2021. Tax revenues rebounded due to strong tax and customs collections, but non-tax revenue contracted following the significant dividend remittances to the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) in the beginning of the pandemic. The fiscal deficit widened from 6.9 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2020 to 8.3 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2021. The wider fiscal deficit has resulted in higher financing needs, which have been met by increased public borrowing. Public debt increased from 54.6 percent of GDP at end-2020 to 63.1 percent of GDP at end-September 2021.
Graduating from a Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Indonesia: Results of a Household Survey of Prosperous-Independent Graduates of the Family Hope Program in 2020

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) Syamsulhakim, Ekki ; Khadijah, Nurzanty

The Family Hope Program (Program Keluarga Harapan - PKH), a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program launched in 2007, has become one of the country’s flagship social protection programs, targeting the poorest families in Indonesia to reduce their expenditure burden and improve their wellbeing through education, health, and social welfare services. In the last 13 years, PKH has expanded to 10 million beneficiary families across all districts/cities in Indonesia. Studies have provided evidence of PKH’s desirable impacts, which include usage of health services, education participation, and stunting reduction (Cahyadi, et al., 2020; Alatas, 2011). However, there is still limited evidence on how families who have already left the program are doing, particularly in regard to their socio-economic status, employment and livelihood activities, program complementarities, and sustainability of the previously incentivized behavior.
Malaysia Country Gender Note 2021

(World Bank, Kuala Lumpur, 2021-08) World Bank

The Malaysia Country Gender Diagnostic Note will serve as a guide to identify the priority areas for the World Bank country office in Malaysia to address the gender equality challenges in meeting the country’s aspirations and next stage of development, particularly in the areas of inclusive growth and sustainability. This diagnostic builds on the first review that was completed in 2018, and aims to understand the changes from 2017 to 2020, especially with regards to the impact of the pandemic on gender issues. This note has strived to obtain the most current data. Where 2019 to 2020 micro-data is not available, this diagnostic is based on data and analysis drawn from published reports using data obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The diagnostic commences with a review of Malaysia’s performance in gender indicators in global indices, and documents areas of progress and areas where Malaysia is lagging in comparison to Southeast Asian (SEA) neighbors and selected countries in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, as well as aspirational high-income nations. The diagnostic follows the framework of the 2012 World Development Report on Gender Equality and Development, and focuses on three priority areas: human endowments, voice and agency, and economic opportunities. This note also considers the changes in Government and national policies, and on pertinent emerging issues. Malaysia scores poorly in gender-related indicators, although it performs fairly well on a number of human development indicators in international indices. Since the previous Gender Diagnostic Note 2018, Malaysia’s performance in the global gender indices has not changed significantly. For example, in the Women, Business and Law Report 2021, Malaysia maintained its score at 50 and comes in the bottom 20th percentile. When compared to regional comparators and aspirational high-income economies, Malaysia is underperforming.
Digital Vietnam: The Path to Tomorrow

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08) World Bank

The report reviews the recent developments in the Vietnamese economy and discusses the economy’s short- to medium-term prospects, highlighting domestic and external risks associated to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. A special emphasis is on what Vietnam needs to do to realize its objective of becoming one of the most advanced digital economies in the world while maximizing the benefits from this transformation.
Beyond Unicorns: Harnessing Digital Technologies for Inclusion in Indonesia

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-07-28) World Bank

Similar to many other countries around the world, the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has hit Indonesia hard. Latest estimates suggest that about 5.1 million people—equivalent to 2.4 percent of the working-age population—have lost their jobs, while an additional 24 million have had to work reduced hours due to the pandemic. As many as 50 percent of workers have experienced a reduction in earnings. The impact on living standards has been devastating, with more than 2.2 million Indonesians estimated to have been pushed into COVID-19-induced poverty in 2020. One unexpected silver lining from the crisis, however, has been the turbo-charged adoption of digital technologies. Businesses, both large and small, have flocked to digital technologies to try to ensure the continuity of their operations. School closures have forced students and teachers to adapt and explore digitally enabled remote learning options, including the adoption of a variety of EdTech solutions. HealthTech apps enabling remote consultations and the delivery of medicine have seen unprecedented growth in adoption rates. Confined at home due to mobility restrictions, Indonesians have switched to the internet for their entertainment and social needs, driving sharp growth in the usage of digital media (music and video streaming) and communications applications. With this pandemic-induced flight to digital expected to be permanent to a large extent, there is excitement about an even greater acceleration in what was already the fastest growing digital economy in Southeast Asia. But at the same time questions have also emerged about the possibility of the differential access to and adoption of digital technologies compounding existing inequalities. For a country that considers achieving balanced development one of its key priorities, this is an important new challenge.
Archipelagic Economies: Spatial Economic Development in the Pacific

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-12) Utz, Robert J. ; Utz, Robert J.

This study explores the far-reaching economic consequences emerging from the archipelagic nature of most Pacific Island countries (PICs). The dispersion of populations across thousands of miles of ocean and hundreds of islands magnifies the economic disadvantages arising from the remoteness and small size that characterize the PICs as a whole. At the same time, population dispersion creates extraordinary challenges related to public service delivery, connectivity, migration and urbanization, and the equity and inclusiveness of economic development. This study focuses on these challenges in pursuit of two main objectives: deepening the understanding of socio-economic conditions on the PICs’ outer islands and the drivers of migration from outer islands to main islands; and reviewing the policy and investment options for fostering the socio-economic development of outer islands populations. This overview summarizes the main findings in five parts. First, the authors present the objectives and outline of the full report. This is followed by a section which explains how the PICs’ external and internal geography are key determinants of socio-economic development outcomes and spatial inequalities. The third part presents data on spatial inequality with respect to a range of socio-economic indicators, public services, connectivity, and migration. In the fourth part, the authors discuss interactions between geographic dispersion and key political economy issues that shape spatial economic policy decisions and outcomes. The report concludes with a summary of policy options for dealing with the development challenges arising from geographic dispersion.
Myanmar Economic Monitor, July 2021: Progress Threatened; Resilience Tested

(World Bank, Myanmar, 2021-07) World Bank

In February 2021 the military assumed power in Myanmar, setting back the country’s democratic transition, and immediately impacting an economy that had already been weakened by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While the initial economic impacts of the coup were extremely severe, in May and June there were early signs that constraints were easing in some areas. Mobility at retail and transport venues improved after the Thingyan holiday in April, and there were reports that factory workers, bank staff, and some public servants had returned to work. Several international apparel buyers resumed placing new orders with garment manufacturers, and logistics bottlenecks eased. Amid substantial uncertainty around the magnitude and duration of recent economic shocks, there are large risks associated with these projections. Relatively severe economic impacts already appear to have persisted for longer than what was assumed even in March, when the authors projected a 10 percent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY21. The third wave of COVID-19 will have substantial additional economic impacts in the September quarter, although the magnitude of these impacts will depend on how the outbreak evolves. Since February the environment for doing business has worsened considerably, impacting productivity across the economy as scarce resources are allocated toward dealing with supply-side constraints. Lost months of education at school and university are of critical concern, including because of the longer-term implications for the accumulation of human capital and productive capacity. With these fundamental drivers of long-term growth at risk, there are already early signs of increased dependence on extractive and or illicit activities, and a return to the inward-looking policies that have characterized much of Myanmar’s history.
Thailand Economic Monitor, July 2021: The Road to Recovery

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07) World Bank

Successive waves of COVID-19 disrupted the Thai economy in the first half of 2021, but their impact was mitigated by recovering global demand and substantial fiscal support. After a second wave of COVID-19 infections began in late 2020, the government strengthened public health and social distancing measures to contain the renewed spread of the virus. The shock of the second wave caused the economy to contract by -2.6 percent, year-on-year (yoy), in Q1 2021, following a 6.1 percent drop in GDP in 2020 which was one of the steepest contractions among Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states. While private investment and manufacturing production recovered to near pre-COVID levels in the first quarter of 2021, weakness in the services and agricultural sector persisted. A third wave of infections that emerged in April 2021 has proven especially severe, and the number of cases surged to over 3,000 per day in May-June 2021. Strict containment measures have reduced mobility and negatively affected consumption and business sentiment. Activity in the tourism sector has remained negligible, and the outlook is clouded by the ongoing impact of COVID-19 across the region, the emergence of new variants, and slow progress on vaccination. However, rebounding goods exports have provided substantial support to the Thai economy, driven by recovering global demand for automotive parts, electronics, machinery, and agricultural products. Cash transfers, public health initiatives, economic recovery programs and other forms of fiscal support have helped shore up private demand while supporting consumption among vulnerable households and attenuating the impact of the crisis on poverty. Going forward, government will need to invest in strengthening the social protection system. Prior to the pandemic social assistance benefits were not very generous and often inadequate to protect the poor. The largest social assistance programs were categorically targeted, and only recently is poverty targeting becoming more prominent. In the years to come it should be a priority to ensure that vulnerable beneficiaries receive adequate support and given the limited fiscal space would also require significant investments in effective targeting. The crisis also further underscores the need to ensure that the social protection system covers the large informal sector in Thailand at all times, not only during crises.