Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Assistive Technologies for Children with Disabilities in Inclusive and Special Schools in Indonesia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-25) Hata, Anna ; Wang, Han ; Yuwono, Joko ; Nomura, Shinsaku

This empirical study of the Indonesian context aims to rigorously examine availability and usage of AT for children with disabilities. It reviews key challenges and support needed in both inclusive and special schools, focusing on teachers in primary and secondary education in Ministry of Education, Culture, Research and Technology (MoECRT). Key questions included: 1) What is the availability and use of AT for students with disabilities in schools in Indonesia? 2) In what ways can teachers, schools, and local and national stakeholders work together to promote equitable and quality learning through AT for children with disabilities? To answer these questions, this study employed a mixed method to enhance the validity and quality of evidence based analysis of AT for children with disabilities in Indonesia, including a national level teacher survey with over 2,000 teachers who participated voluntarily, focus group discussions with teachers, school principals and policy makers as well as an international review of practices on AT for children with disabilities to address the lack of previous studies in Indonesia.
Timor-Leste Economic Report, July 2023: Ways to Harvest Prosperity

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-25) World Bank

Timor-Leste’s economy continued its recovery in 2022, expanding by 3.9 percent, fueled by public consumption and investment. Private investment rose from an exceptionally low level while net exports continued to be a drag on growth. Headline inflation soared in March 2023 at 9.6 percent, spurred by significant increases in food and non-food prices. High inflation is part of a global trend driven by prices of tradable goods. Within Timor-Leste, the government’s policy of enforcing higher excise taxes on tobacco products, implementing import taxes, and applying excises to sugar and sugary beverages, partially drove the inflationary trend. To advance a reform agenda, the new government may want to consider institutionalizing fiscal consolidation through robust fiscal rules. Both revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization efforts should not only be maintained but also enhanced. Given that significant increases in public spending have had a limited impact on Timor-Leste’s medium-term economic growth, it is possible to sustain growth levels with a reduced budget.
Manufacturing Firm Diversification into Industry 4.0 Technologies: Evidence from Korea

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-22) World Bank

This report leverages patent data and relatedness analysis to identify the factors that affect the technological transition of firms toward industry 4.0 technologies by looking at the technological trajectories of Korean manufacturing firms. Based on a unique dataset of Korean manufacturing firms’ patents and their financial and market information, the research follows the Principle of Relatedness to trace a firm’s footprint in a technology space. The technology space can help identify how previously accumulated capability in firms can positively affect technological diversification and developing I4 technologies. The research further analyzes the impact of public R&D support in I4 technology development. The analysis finds that public support is relatively more effective for firms that possess low technological relatedness and less so for firms that already have accumulated related technologies. This research is expected to inform policy design supporting firm diversification towards I4 transition.
Lessons from Korea’s Energy Efficiency Policies in the Industrial Sector

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-21) World Bank

In an economy driven by its vital industrial sector, tackling the advancing threats of high energy consumption and GHG emissions has been a key challenge for pursuing energy efficiency in Korea. To aid policy makers promote energy efficiency in the industry sector, this report offers a comprehensive overview of Korea’s energy efficiency policy experience, featuring six specific examples of current supply- and demand-side policy instruments based on distinct modalities. Drawing upon publicly available data and qualitative interviews with energy policy experts, researchers, and practitioners in Korea, the report finds that Korea has had (i) clear lines of authority and responsibility among ministries and implementing agencies; (ii) emphasis on hard-to-abate sectors and firms with high energy consumption; (iii) combination of mandatory and voluntary programs incentivizing firms of all sizes; and (iv) knowledge-sharing facilitation among private actors. In addition to a multifaceted policy mix, the analysis suggests that industrial economic plans should avoid a future where the economy becomes captive to economic structures that can constrain long-term energy efficiency gains.
China Economic Update, June 2023: Sustaining Growth through the Recovery and Beyond

(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2023-06-30) World Bank

Economic activity bounced back in Q1 2023 with the removal of mobility restrictions and a surge in spending on services. However, growth momentum has slowed since April, indicating that China’s recovery remains fragile and dependent on policy support. China’s GDP growth is projected to rise to a 5.6 percent in 2023, led by a rebound in consumer spending. The economic recovery offers an important opportunity for policymakers to refocus their efforts on achieving China’s longer-term development objectives. Structural reforms remain crucial to solidify the recovery and achieve the longer-term goals to (i) become a high-income country by 2035 through productivity-led and environmentally sustainable growth; (ii) peak carbon emissions before 2030 and become carbon-neutral by 2060; and (iii) share the gains from economic growth more equally among the population.
A Blue Transformation for Pacific Maritime Transport: Overarching Regional Transport

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-06-29) World Bank

This report has eight chapters. Following the introduction (Pacific Peoples and the Sea), the next six chapters each focus on a separate significant component of Pacific maritime transport, analyzing the major influences and challenges, and, where relevant, key areas for future attention. The topics are: international shipping, gateway ports, domestic maritime transport, four related sectors, cruise ship tourism, tuna fisheries, fossil fuel imports, and bulk shipping, natural disasters and climate resilience, and sector governance and institutions. The final chapter, transforming pacific maritime transport, ways forward, distils the report’s findings into the most significant and far-reaching opportunities to transform maritime transport in the Pacific. These are grouped into three broad themes, infrastructure, services, and governance and capacity building. Ways Forward comes at the end and, for readers unable to view the whole report, is a good place to begin. The rest of this executive summary explains why the Pacific is a special case for investment and provides a summary of the main chapters and findings. But first, it describes which Pacific Island countries contributed to the study.
Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2023: A Fragile Recovery - Special Focus on Employment, Incomes and Coping Mechanisms

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-28) World Bank

Following the significant volatility that characterized much of 2022, economic conditions in Myanmar have shown tentative signs of stabilization in the first half of 2023. The parallel market exchange rate remained broadly stable between January and May, albeit 27 percent lower against the US dollar than in June 2022 and depreciation pressures appear to have reemerged in recent weeks. In the medium-term, the deep contraction in 2021, the ensuring weak and uneven recovery, and increasing policy distortions will leave the economy permanently scarred. Many of the trends observed at household, firm and industry levels are likely to damage the productive capacity of the economy, in addition to their direct impacts on welfare and inequality. Increased reliance on coping mechanisms such as asset sales and reduced spending on health, education and agricultural inputs will curtail the longer-term earnings capacity of households. There has been little evidence of productivity-enhancing structural transformation in recent years; instead, more highly educated workers have moved into agriculture and away from higher productivity activities. Migration in recent years has been mostly forced, lowering the potential for income and productivity gains with recent migrants across states and regions within Myanmar tending to be worse off across various welfare indicators. And while interventionist measures to promote import substitution and self-sufficiency can generate employment and activity in the short term, in the long run, growth is likely to suffer as resources move toward activities that are less compatible with local factor endowments, and as the scope for productivity gains from specialization and exposure to international competition diminishes. Increased out-migration of more skilled workers and the sharp slowdown of foreign investment inflows will further constrain Myanmar’s prospects for development over the longer term.
Cambodia Economic Update, May 2023: Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-27) World Bank

Cambodia’s economic recovery solidified in 2022 with real growth accelerating to 5.2 percent. After shifting to “living with COVID-19” in late 2021, the economy is firmly on a path to recovery and has now returned to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Initially led by the strong performance of export-oriented manufacturing, growth drivers are rotating to the services and agriculture sectors. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is benefitting from improved access to regional markets, thanks to newly ratified bi-lateral and regional free trade agreements. Weakening external demand is, however, starting to weigh on the country’s economic recovery. Despite weakening goods export performance, the current account balance is improving, thanks to the rebound in the travel and tourism industry and remittances, while the oil price shock eased. The economic recovery and good revenue administration underpinned an across-the board improvement in domestic revenue collection. The authorities continued to provide cash transfers for poor and vulnerable households, although the worst of the pandemic is now behind us. In this regard, the Cambodian authorities have extended the COVID-19 cash transfer program, with an additional budget. To enhance the long-term resilience and competitiveness of the economy, efforts are needed to further promote export product diversification.
Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2023: The Invisible Toll of COVID-19 on Learning

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-26) World Bank

Commodity windfalls and private consumption have sustained Indonesia’s growth despite a difficult global environment, but signs of normalizing domestic demand are emerging. Inflation is easing at a faster pace than markets anticipated. Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities remain moderate. The fiscal stance has normalized reflecting faster fiscal consolidation, anchored by a broad-based rise in revenues and prudent public spending. Softening inflation and resilient capital flows have led Bank Indonesia (BI) to ease its pace of monetary tightening. The outlook remains stable as the economy normalizes following the post-pandemic recovery. While this is a robust outcome given levels of global uncertainty, Indonesia still faces declining productivity growth like other emerging market economies. Policy makers are encouraged to build on recent reforms and adopt further market-friendly policies and reduce constraints to competition to accelerate productivity growth. The Government of Indonesia (GoI) has put tremendous efforts into mitigating the learning disruption caused by COVID-19. This study provides new evidence of learning loss in math and language, comparing data on grade 4 student learning before and after the COVID-19 pandemic-induced school closures across Indonesia. In line with international literature on COVID-19 - induced learning losses, students’ future earnings and Indonesia’s future productivity will be negatively affected if no action is taken. This study highlights the urgency of addressing learning loss by stimulating political commitment for learning recovery and prompting deliberate actions, with adequate resources to complete them.
Opening Opportunities: The Economic Cost of Gender Gaps in Entrepreneurship in Indonesia

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-22) World Bank

This report examines the state of female entrepreneurship in Indonesia, outlines major binding constraints and gender gaps, and highlights the untapped potential that could be realized if key barriers were lifted. The report draws on quantitative analysis of household- and firm-level surveys, the collection and review of qualitative work with male and female entrepreneurs across the country, a review of global evidence on gender and entrepreneurship, and analysis of relevant policies, laws, and regulations in Indonesia. The report also offers a novel analysis of the potential economic dividends from closing gender gaps in business performance in Indonesia.