Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Myanmar Economic Monitor, December 2019: Resilience Amidst Risk

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-31) World Bank

Myanmar’s economy continues to show resilience despite the global slowdown and domestic uncertainties. Its economy is estimated to have grown at 6.3 percent in 2018/191, marginally higher than 6.2 percent in 2017/18, supported by better performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. Macroeconomic volatility has increased since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation reaching double digits in July 2019. Economic growth is expected to reach 6.4 percent in 2019/20, helped by growing investment in the transport and telecommunication sectors and government’s planned infrastructure spending before the 2020 elections. Risks to the economic outlook are tilted to the downside due to slowing global and regional growth, and continued uncertainty about investor perceptions triggered by the Rakhine crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the 2020 general elections, although the pace has thus far been strong.
The Demand Side of Jobs in Indonesia: Plant-level Analysis in the Medium and Large Manufacturing Industry

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-24) Wihardja, Maria Monica ; Alatas, Hamidah

This study is motivated by the lack of demand-side jobs study in Indonesia. Workers do not create jobs; they only fill job openings. However, most of the jobs studies in Indonesia are focused on the supply side of jobs (workers), including skills development, workers protection and unemployment insurance, as well as international migration. To gain insights into the job-creation side of the puzzle, this study proposes to explore the demand side of jobs (employers or firms). Specifically, it aims to contribute to the Indonesia Jobs Strategy by providing new (and perhaps the only) evidence on the demand side of jobs in Indonesia. This report is not exhaustive of all demand side of jobs. It is part of the bigger report on demand-side jobs, which will include the macroeconomic analysis (growth and productivity decomposition, projected sectoral employment growth, etc.), HH enterprises (including those in the agriculture sector), and the emerging economic sectors such as the digital economy.
Finance in Transition: Unlocking Capital Markets for Vietnam’s Future Development

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-17) World Bank

The Vietnamese economy has done well in 2019. In the context of increasing global uncertainty,Vietnam will most certainly be among the fastest growing economies in the world, with a GDP growth rate of approximately 6.8 percent. This rate is almost three times faster than the world average (2.6 percent) and 1.2 percentage points higher than the average in East Asia and Pacific, according to the latest estimates from the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects. This robust growth performance was attained thanks to the contribution of two key factors: export growth and domestic demand from households and firms. The first factor reflects the performance of the exports sector, growing by about 8.4 percent between January and September 2019, which is lower than in the recent past (15.8 percent in the same period in 2018), but three times higher than the global average. However, this expansion can be short-lived as it captures to some extent the diversion of Chinese exports toward Vietnam due to the trade tensions between China and the UnitedStates. As a matter of fact, the value of exports toward non-U.S. markets increased by only 3.8percent in 2019. The second contributing factor reflects the rapid expansion of the middle class, as the number of people living on more than US 15 Dollars per day increases by about 1 million every year. The demand of the burgeoning middle class has been met to a great extent by purchases of foreign products, as the imports of consumption goods have been rising by about 15 percent per year since 2015. The contribution of exports and private demand to GDP growth has allowed the government to maintain its prudent fiscal and monetary policies. On the fiscal front, the authorities have managed to reduce their fiscal deficit (down by 0.1 percent of GDP) due to higher-than-expected revenues and a very low execution of capital investment expenditures; the latter has been persistently low since 2015. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio (the Ministry of Finance’s definition) is estimated to have declined from 58.4 to 56.1 percent from 2018 and 2019. The authorities have thus been able to rebuild additional fiscal space by reducing public borrowing by almost 8 percentage points of GDP since 2016, though lower capital spending has also depressed potential growth.
Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2019: Unleashing the Private Sector

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-12) World Bank Group

Following a two-year recession, economic activity is expected to recover in 2019. Public spending, which has traditionally been the key driver of economic growth, increased by 16 percent in the first half of 2019 when compared to the same period in 2018. Higher spending was predominantly focused on current expenditure, while capital spending was more subdued. Only a more dynamic private sector will enable the economy to grow faster and in a more sustainable way. Policy priorities for increasing firm performance include increasing firm access to finance, skills and affordable inputs, as well as easing firm entry and reducing regulatory uncertainty. Additional policy areas for reform may include the foreign direct investment (FDI) regime (affecting entry) and the insolvency and creditor rights system (affecting exit).
Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2019: Making Ends Meet

(World Bank, Kuala Lumpur, 2019-12-07) World Bank

Malaysia's economy is continuing to see growth, but the pace of expansion has moderated. Growth slowed to 4.4 percent in Q3 2019, as subdued global conditions and heightened uncertainty continued to weigh on the economy. Investment and trade activity was softer than expected during the quarter, and indicators suggest overall business sentiment remains muted. In 2020, Malaysia's economy is projected to expand at a relatively moderate pace, amid continued uncertainty and external headwinds. The GDP growth rate is projected to reach 4.5 percent in 2020. Investment is expected to improve but remain subdued over the near term, with both the public and private sectors adopting a cautious stance towards capital spending. Similarly, the softness in export growth is likely to persist into next year, mirroring the continuing subdued global growth. Short-term policies should focus on measures to boost resilience and protect the vulnerable. Federal debt has increased, and government revenue as a share of GDP is expected to decline further next year. In the context of a more uncertain economic environment, it is vital for Malaysia to preserve fiscal space to enable it to mitigate the impact of any negative shocks to the economy. Increased progressivity in the personal income tax framework and an expansion of current tax measures could enable the government to both increase revenues and improve redistribution. Malaysia's weakening trade and investment activity, amid challenging external conditions, underscores the need to improve private sector confidence and strengthen investment competitiveness. With sluggish global demand and increased protectionist tendencies among the majoreconomies, a sustained commitment to deepening regional integration and addressing trade barriers is vital to preserve a vibrant trading environment and build investors' confidence. It is also important to strengthen Malaysia's competitiveness in attracting quality investments and to maximize the gains from tax expenditures with better targeting of investments towards economic upgrading, high-value job creation and inclusive growth.
China Economic Update, December 2019: Cyclical Risks and Structural Imperatives

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12) World Bank Group

China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions, especially on confidence. Adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution will continue to weigh on growth over the medium term. If downside risks lead to a sharp reduction in growth, the authorities have policy space to act, but this needs to be done in a way that is consistent with reducing financial and corporate sector risks and achieving the desired rebalancing of the economy toward consumption and private investment. The key medium-term priorities are to deepen structural reforms to strengthen productivity growth and private investment, while accelerating rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green growth. This would require addressing market distortions and mainstreaming environmental sustainability into China's medium-term development strategy. Implementation of these priorities would boost China's long-term growth prospects; it would also help move toward a more comprehensive and lasting resolution of remaining deep-seated disagreements on global trade and investment, and public goods agenda.
Primary Education in Remote Indonesia: Survey Results from West Kalimantan and East Nusa Tenggara

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12) World Bank

Competitiveness in an increasingly globalized world requires a highly skilled and educated workforce. The Government of Indonesia recognizes that a highly educated and skilled workforce is critical to reducing inequality and poverty. To ensure schools are given adequate attention, the 2003 Law 20 on National Education System mandates that 20 percent of national and district government budgets is for education. This target was achieved in 2009 and has continued thereafter. Indonesia has made considerable progress in achieving universal enrollment at the primary and secondary school levels. The Government's attention to education through its policies as well as the two decades favorable economic growth has enabled gross enrollment at the primary school levels at about 100 percent, with gross enrollment at the secondary school levels increasing from 55 to more than 86 percent. Paradoxically, despite success in education enrollment, Indonesian students have low learning outcomes, particularly in rural and remote areas of the country. Findings show that years of education and enrollment figures do not correlate with the quality of education provided. In other words, "schooling ain't learning" (Pritchett 2013; World Bank 2018a). In all international assessments (such as the PISA, TIMSS, and PIRLS), Indonesian students rank bottom among all countries assessed (Hanushek and Woessmann 2007; OECD 2017; World Bank 2017). Over the past 20 years, Indonesian student learning outcomes have tended to remain flat (OECD 2017; Beatty et al. 2018). In addition, studies show that primary and secondary schools located in rural and remote areas have substantially lower learning outcomes compared with their urban counterparts (Stern and Nordstrum 2014; BPS 2017; Beatty et al.2018).
Addressing the Double Burden of Malnutrition in ASEAN

(World Bank, Bangkok, 2019-12-01) Mbuya, Nkosinathi Vusizihlobo ; Osornprasop, Sutayut ; David, Clarissa

Malnutrition, which encompasses both undernutrition and overnutrition, presents a significanthuman capital as well as economic development challenge across most ASEAN Member States.A healthy, well-nourished, well-educated and skillful population provides the foundation for aproductive life and enables future workers to compete in the dynamic labor markets of digitaleconomies. However, most of ASEAN's lower-income countries face an unfinished agenda withregard to undernutrition. Undernutrition elevates the risk of infant and child morbidity andmortality, increases expenditure on health care and social safety nets, lowers the efficiency ofinvestments in education, and decreases lifelong income-earning potential and labor forceproductivity, with the potential to be transmitted across generations. Estimates for some ASEANmember states show undernutrition resulting in annual losses of between 2.4 percent - 4.4 percent of GDP Overnutrition compounds the challenges. Overnutrition is posing an increasing challenge to ASEAN, with some countries having high prevalence of obesity and overweight. In the last 35 years obesity prevalence across ASEAN increased over 7-fold, most rapidly in Cambodia, Indonesia, and Lao PDR, where obesity rates have risen more than 10-fold. Childhood overweight and obesity is likewise a growing problem, especially in Brunei, Malaysia, and Thailand where childhood overweight prevalence exceeds 25 percent. Overweight and obesity among ASEAN member states have high direct costs for some countries, for example in Brunei it is 16. Direct health care costs related to treatment of obesity and associated chronic diseases due to obesity as well as indirect costs, particularly from the loss of labor productivity, are expected to increase in many ASEAN countries.
Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2019: Investing in People

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12) World Bank

Amid challenging global economic conditions and a substantial deterioration of its terms-of-trade, Indonesia’s economic growth decelerated to 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2019, from 5.1 percent in Q2. Domestic drivers of growth slowed. Fixed investment growth weakened further in Q3 given the significant decline in commodity prices, and as political uncertainty lingered prior to the announcement of the new cabinet. Total consumption also slowed, with Government consumption decelerating markedly. This weakness in domestic demand was mirrored by a large contraction of import volumes, which together with flat exports meant that net exports made a large contribution to growth.
Information and Communication Technology for Disaster Risk Management in Japan: How Digital Solutions are Leveraged to Increase Resilience through Improving Early Warnings and Disaster Information Sharing

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11-14) World Bank

Breakthroughs in information and communication technology (ICT) increasingly offer new tools to support disaster risk management (DRM). Due to the rapid advancement of computing and communication devices, ICT’s capacity to improve the DRM framework became a critical factor to strengthen resilience. As a nation with high levels of disaster risk and technological development, Japan has developed several forward-looking ICT for DRM. This report highlights the application of ICT for DRM in two specific areas: Early Warning System (EWS) and Disaster Information Management System (DIMS). The analysis of eight Japanese case studies of ICT solutions for DRM across various sectors, hazards, and levels of governance gives insight into their development, selection process and enabling environments, and provides case-specific lessons and recommendations. This report is intended as a reference tool for global DRM practitioners seeking to develop an enabling environment for applying ICT solutions toward resilience. The lessons learned from the Japanese case studies are intended to support practitioners and decision-makers in other countries to envision and explore ways to better leverage ICT to strengthen resilience. While valuable information can be extracted from the analysis, each case is contextualized within its particular social, political and environmental framework: our recommendations should be adapted to local needs and capacities.