Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Togo Jobs Diagnostic: Confronting Challenges and Creating Opportunities for More Good Quality Jobs for All

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-04) Karlen, Raphaela ; Rother, Friederike ; editors

Togo, a small country with a young and growing population, must look to the development of more and better jobs to recover from recent shocks, accelerate poverty reduction and enhance social cohesion. While Togo’s employment rate is high, many are working low productive jobs with meager earnings and no access to social protection. Demographic pressures imply that Togo’s economy will need to absorb an additional one million labor market entrants between now and 2030. To create more, and better jobs, especially for young workers, substantive reforms are required to accelerate a structural transformation towards higher productivity activities. Besides improving the competitiveness of and access to finance for the private sector, improving conditions in the agricultural sector needs to be at the core of these reforms, as that sector will remain the main source of jobs and livelihoods for Togolese in the foreseeable future.
Pacific Economic Update, August 2023: Recovering in the Midst of Uncertainty - Special Focus : Harnessing the Benefits of Pacific Migration

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-03) World Bank

The global economic recovery remains fragile, creating choppy seas for the recovering Pacific. While global conditions have gradually improved since the pandemic and spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, progress on reducing inflation in major economies has proven more challenging than expected. Given that all Pacific countries are net importers, this has resulted in persistently high imported inflation. The speed of monetary policy tightening by major central banks has slowed, but easing is unlikely in the near term. Aggregate demand in major trading partners of the Pacific (particularly Australia and New Zealand) remains lackluster. This could limit demand for travel and tourism services and other income sources such as remittance and commodity exports. Despite uncertainties in the global economic recovery, Pacific economies are expected to see ongoing expansion in 2023 and 2024. Fiji led the Pacific’s post-COVID-19 recovery with open borders and a strong rebound in 2022 and is now on track to reach its pre-pandemic output level in 2023. Ongoing recovery expectations in the Pacific are broadly in line with March 2023 World Bank projections except for Tuvalu and Palau, where growth has been revised down given weaker than expected outcomes in construction and tourism. In 2023, Pacific growth is expected to reach 3.9 percent and then moderate to 3.3 percent in 2024 as the initial post-COVID-19 rebound dissipates and the region moves towards its long-term trend growth of 2.6 percent. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains high and depends on whether a soft landing can be achieved among key trading partners as they battle ongoing inflation. Inflation remained stubborn across the Pacific at an average of over 6.7 percent in 2022, a substantial increase from the 1.5 percent average during 2019-2021. This has increased the risk of vulnerable populations falling into poverty. In line with global trends, Pacific inflation is expected to decline to an average of 6.0 percent in 2023 and gradually subside thereafter.
Jobs, Food and Greening: Exploring Implications of the Green Transition for Jobs in the Agri-food System

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-16) Nico, Gianluigi ; Christiaensen, Luc

The agri-food system (AFS) employs about one third of the global workforce and contributes about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This together with its large exposure to the effects of climate change and environmental degradation makes what happens in AFS central to the green transition and its implications for jobs and the structural transformation. Microeconomic evidence suggests that the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices will increase labor requirements, at least in the short run and at lower levels of incomes, when its mechanization is still limited. Econometric macro-model-based simulations suggest however that especially substantial investment in climate friendly agricultural R&D as well as soil and water preserving practices and market integration will more than offset the negative effects of climate change and even accelerate the structural transformation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. Overall, the findings underscore the tremendous potential of increasing agricultural and climate friendly R&D investment for brokering an environmentally sustainable structural transformation. Repurposing of agriculture’s current US$ 638 billion support package towards supporting more climate friendly practices, including to overcome the time lag between the moment of investment and the realization of the benefits, provides an important policy entry point.
Diagnosing the Binding Constraints to Better Jobs: An Approach and Framework

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-16) Osborne, Theresa

The persistent lack of good jobs that is, an inadequate level or quality of jobs, inefficient and/or inequitable jobs outcomes is a key economic issue in developing (and some developed) economies. Yet policy responses often lack an understanding of the causes. While the proximate drivers, such as low productivity growth, slow capital deepening, or a lack of firms and other organized economic actors, may share patterns, the policy roots and circumstances of these outcomes vary a great deal by country. Thus, making progress in a meaningful and lasting way requires, in the first instance, a clear understanding of the binding constraints which, if alleviated, would result in a substantial structural improvement to jobs outcomes. Binding constraints could arise in a host of policies and institutions, including possibly inadequate human capital and labor market policies but also in infrastructure, regulatory, financial, judicial and other areas. This paper provides a data-driven approach and framework for diagnosing the truly binding constraints to better jobs. The approach is to rule out broad categories of constraints using economic logic and data, and to utilize an array of empirical indicators to test whether remaining candidate constraints are binding. While this paper outlines an exhaustive approach, the style of thinking and techniques can also be applied selectively to fill analytical gaps and ensure that key issues are not left unaddressed.
Working for Inclusion: Economic Inclusion in Contexts of Forced Displacement

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06-15) Heisey, Janet ; Sánchez, Inés Arévalo ; Bernagros, Alexi

Since 2012, the number of forcibly displaced people has more than doubled, reaching 89.3 million by the end of 2021. Ongoing conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, will result in even larger numbers of forcibly displaced people. The economic and human development impacts of forcible displacement present challenges for the people who have been displaced, the communities that host them, and governments that receive them. Governments, humanitarian organizations, and others are using economic inclusion programs as one strategy to increase income and assets and build the resilience of displaced people and host populations living in poverty. An estimated 95 economic inclusion programs are underway in contexts of forced displacement in 45 countries, more than half led by governments. This note examines the experience of economic inclusion programs that serve forcibly displaced people, including internally displaced people, refugees, and their host communities. It also examines the emerging lessons learned in program design and delivery based on new data on the footprint of economic inclusion programs and a review of evidence on forced displacement and economic inclusion programming.
Somalia Economic Update, June 2022: Investing in Social Protection to Boost Resilience for Economic Growth

(Washington, DC, 2022-06) World Bank

Somalia is currently experiencing extreme and widespread drought which has been assessed as an unprecedented climatic event not seen in at least 40 years by meteorological agencies and humanitarian partners. After four consecutive seasons of poor rains, 90 percent of the country is experiencing severe drought conditions that include failed crop harvests, widespread water shortages, and decline in livestock production. The drought has intensified the humanitarian crisis and is driving the country into a brink of famine. Significant displacement of people is occurring as they abandoned their homes in search of food, water, and pasture for their livestock. The situation is being exacerbated by the war in Ukraine which has pushed up global food and oil prices. The higher commodity prices are disproportionally affecting the poor and exacerbating inequality. Against this challenging backdrop, the seventh edition of the World Bank’s Somalia Economic Update provides a detailed update of recent economic developments and growth outlook and makes a case for investing in Social Protection to help confront the frequent shocks that buffet the country. Overall, the Economic Update series aims to contribute to policymaking process and stimulate national dialogue on topical issues related to economic recovery and development.
The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-03-08) Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Yu, Shu ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Yu, Shu ; Capasso, Salvatore ; Elgin, Ceyhun ; Kasyanenko, Sergiy ; Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene ; Koh, Wee Chian ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Okawa, Yoki ; Okou, Cedric ; Taskin, Temel ; Vashakmadze, Ekaterine T. ; Vorisek, Dana ; Ye, Sandy Lei

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging markets and developing economies. Widespread informality may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic—unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes—including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.
South Sudan Economic Monitor, February 2022: Towards a Jobs Agenda

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-02-16) World Bank

South Sudan faced significant headwinds in FY2020/21, with the pandemic, floods, and violence flareups affecting economic activities. Consequently, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 5.4 percent in FY2020/21. Oil production declined by 5.9 percent as floods affected production and the COVID-19 pandemic delayed new investments to replace exhausted wells. In the agriculture sector, flooding precipitated estimated losses of 38,000 tons of cereals (4.3% of 2020 production) and 800,000 livestock according to FAO estimates. The overall cereal deficit was projected to reach 465,610 metric tons in 2021, equivalent to about 35 percent of the overall food requirement for the year, sustaining high levels of food insecurity. Living conditions continue to be impacted by violence, displacement, and inadequate access to basic services. With improving macroeconomic conditions supported by an ongoing macro-fiscal reform program, a modest growth rebound of 1.2 percent is projected in FY2021/22. Nevertheless, poverty levels are expected to remain exceptionally high. As the economy recovers from multiple shocks, a focus on policy options to stimulate the creation of a sufficient number of quality jobs to absorb a young and expanding labor force should take center stage. Economies that create jobs, particularly for the youth, are generally more stable and can elevate public confidence in the Government’s capacity to deliver. In South Sudan, an effective jobs support program would invest in immediate livelihood support, the recovery of modest business activities, and the revival of markets.
Moldova Policy Notes 2021: Sectoral Recommendations

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-12) World Bank

Moldova’s policy priorities and key actions going forward: Strengthening the capacity and governance of public administration; Strengthening the judiciary and the fight against corruption; Supporting a resilient recovery while safeguarding fiscal sustainability; Building fiscal resilience at the subnational level with land administration and property registration and valuation; Enhancing labor markets and addressing COVID-19 challenges; Achieving a sustainable social protection system; Improving the efficiency and resilience of health service delivery; Strengthening environment protection and disaster risk management; Water resource management; Increasing resilience and competitiveness of agriculture; Enhancing the business environment and market competition; Fostering SMEs and strengthening FDI linkages; Enhancing financial sector stability and governance; Strengthening education outcomes and skills; Expanding inclusive digital development opportunities; Multimodal transport and logistics; and Addressing energy security and sustainability.
Jordan Economic Monitor - Spring 2022: Global Turbulence Dampens Recovery and Job Creation

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

Jordan’s economy achieved a relatively strong rebound, registering 2.2 percent growth in 2021. The nascent recovery was led by a broad-based expansion of the services and industrial sectors, while the rebound in the travel and tourism also exceeded expectations. This robust economic recovery was supported by accommodative but prudent monetary and fiscal policy along with a recovery in domestic demand and the gradual reopening of the economy. However, the recovery of some subsectors, particularly contact-intensive services continues to lag behind pre-pandemic level, leading to weak recovery in jobs, especially among the Jordanian youth. Moreover, the underlying improvement in domestic demand amid an unprecedented increase in the global commodity prices has kept the current account deficit elevated for another year. Nonetheless, Jordan ended 2021 on a strong footing as Central Bank’s gross foreign reserves remained at a comfortable level, on the back of strong multilateral and bilateral support. Meanwhile, the Central Government resumed its fiscal consolidation path, aided by strong growth in both tax and non-tax revenues. The Jordanian economy is expected to sustain recent momentum during 2022, aided by a full opening of the economy and a return in tourism and travel which is anticipated to boost Jordan’s services sector. However, persistent global headwinds, including rising international commodity prices, global supply chain bottlenecks, negative spillovers from Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Fed tapering, pose major downside risks to Jordan’s economic outlook. Thus, a private sector driven growth and investment reform agenda needs to be put in place immediately which can help Jordan manage turbulence and uncertainty better.