Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Seventh Ghana Economic Update: Price Surge - Unraveling Inflation’s Toll on Poverty and Food Security

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-24) Kwakye, Kwabena Gyan ; Corral Rodas, Paul Andres ; Elmaleh, David ; Sebastian, Ashwini Rekha

Ghana’s economy entered a full-blown crisis in 2022, after having rebounded from the COVID-19 slowdown in 2021. In response to the macroeconomic challenges, the authorities enacted some fiscal adjustment in 2022 but fell short of their consolidation targets; the 2023Q1 fiscal deficit (cash) was within target. Expenditure consolidation and revenue mobilization continued to be hampered by structural constraints. To address these unsustainable domestic and external imbalances, the authorities embarked on a comprehensive debt restructuring operation. Against the backdrop, growth is projected to decelerate further in 2023-24, before picking up in the medium-term. The government has embarked on an ambitious fiscal consolidation plan: however, delivering on it will require addressing long-standing revenue mobilization and budget control weaknesses. In 2023, the authorities intend to finance the fiscal deficit from multilateral (and other official) sources, in the context of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - supported program, and from the domestic treasury bills (T-bills) market. In addition, leveraging government programs to build up resilience against vulnerability is an imperative and should not be suspended during the crisis. Beefing up the government’s payments through the livelihood empowerment against poverty will be critical. Second, support for food self-sufficiency is needed in Ghana (a goal for many countries now due to the global food crisis), while opening the country to generate more export revenues. The Ghana Tree Crops Diversification Project can serve as a critical puzzle piece of the country’s current challenges. The project will support poverty alleviation while setting the country up to generate more foreign revenues in the medium to long-term.
The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-03-08) Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Yu, Shu ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Yu, Shu ; Capasso, Salvatore ; Elgin, Ceyhun ; Kasyanenko, Sergiy ; Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene ; Koh, Wee Chian ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Okawa, Yoki ; Okou, Cedric ; Taskin, Temel ; Vashakmadze, Ekaterine T. ; Vorisek, Dana ; Ye, Sandy Lei

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging markets and developing economies. Widespread informality may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic—unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes—including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.
Overcoming Poverty and Inequality in the Philippines: Past, Present, and Prospects for the Future

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

In the past three decades, the Philippines has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty. Driven by high growth rates and structural transformation, the poverty rate fell by two-thirds, from 49.2 percent in 1985 to 16.7 percent in 2018. By 2018, the middle class had expanded to nearly 12 million people and the economically secure population had risen to 44 million. This report is intended to inform public debate and policymaking on inequality in the Philippines. It synthesizes core findings from background analyses of the patterns of inequality and poverty and provides policy pointers. The analysis uses a wealth of data from a variety of sources (detailed in Appendix A). In what follows, section two discusses the poverty and inequality impacts of COVID-19. Section three analyzes what has been driving poverty and inequality over the past three decades. Section four discusses the structural causes of current inequality; and section five examines how they affect recovery patterns. The last section discusses how policy can promote equality and inclusive recovery.
Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2021: Staying Afloat

(World Bank, Kuala Lumpur, 2021-12-22) World Bank

Following the surge in COVID-19 infections in Q3 2021, Malaysia is gradually emerging from the worst wave of the pandemic. As a result, the Malaysian economy is expected to be on a recovery path next year. In the near-term, it is key to ensure that targeted support measures remain in place. The Malaysia Economic Monitor (MEM) consists of two parts. Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses on a selected special topic that is key to Malaysia’s medium-term development prospects and to the achievement of shared prosperity.
Philippines Economic Update, December 2021: Regaining Lost Ground, Revitalizing the Filipino Workforce

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-06) World Bank

The economic rebound gained momentum in the third quarter of 2021 despite another COVID-19 wave. The Philippines has, so far, faced its worst infection wave in September when the 7-day daily average reached about 21,000 cases due to the Delta variant. In response, the authorities reimposed stringent mobility restrictions in Metro Manila and other key metropolitan areas. Nonetheless, compared with previous waves, domestic activity has been less sensitive to infections. Public containment measures constrained overall mobility less, while households and firms have learned to cope with infections and diminished mobility. As a result, the growth momentum was not severely hampered, and the third quarter growth surprised on the upside, exceeding market expectations. The economy expanded by 4.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2021, rebounding from a 10.1 percent contraction over the same period in 2020. Although partially driven by base effects, the growth expansion also reflected an increase in economic activity despite the implementation of several lockdowns. Growth was supported by the industry sector, driven by double-digit growth in manufacturing and robust public construction activity. The services sector posted a more moderate expansion as some key services were subdued by mobility restriction measures. The agriculture sector contracted as farm and livestock outputs were impacted by typhoons and ongoing outbreak of African Swine Fever. Meanwhile, domestic demand improved, supported by a resurgence in public construction spending. Private consumption picked up but still tempered by elevated inflation and unemployment, mobility restrictions, and low consumer confidence. Public consumption growth eased, in part due to the base effects from the swift disbursement of fiscal support a year ago. The global economic recovery strengthened exports, although services trade remained weak. The fiscal stance remains supportive of economic recovery, but the policy space is narrowing. Public spending accelerated from 23.6 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 24.6 percent of GDP in the same period in 2021, in line with the recovery in public investment and ongoing fiscal support. Infrastructure outlays increased from 3.5 percent of GDP to 4.7 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2021, a result of the government’s push on investment spending as part of its recovery program. Meanwhile, public revenues fell from 16.8 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 16.3 percent of GDP over the same period in 2021. Tax revenues rebounded due to strong tax and customs collections, but non-tax revenue contracted following the significant dividend remittances to the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) in the beginning of the pandemic. The fiscal deficit widened from 6.9 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2020 to 8.3 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2021. The wider fiscal deficit has resulted in higher financing needs, which have been met by increased public borrowing. Public debt increased from 54.6 percent of GDP at end-2020 to 63.1 percent of GDP at end-September 2021.
Ukraine: Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture and Forestry

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) World Bank

Ukraine has made impressive progress on key reforms and restored macro-financial stability, but weak growth and poverty remain a concern. Despite these economic challenges, Ukraine recognizes climate change as the most consequential factor this century, affecting the economy and future generations. This study is the first detailed assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Ukraine, with a focus on agriculture, a key driver of the economy and jobs. The analysis provides an insight into the spatial dimension of climate change, how these changes would be experienced in different oblasts in the country. This report is supported by four background technical reports on climate projections, impact on agriculture, impact on forests and distributional analysis. In addition, climate datasets of over two terabytes generated for this assessment are housed at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Kyiv. The results of this study are expected to inform Ukraine’s national adaptation strategy, which is now being finalized. This study also paves the way for the development of sub-national and sectoral adaptation strategies with the spatially disaggregated information that has been generated for all oblasts.
Uganda Economic Update, 18th Edition, December 2021: Putting Women at the Center of Uganda’s Economic Revival

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) World Bank

Uganda’s economy was recovering well, up until the second wave of COVID-19 infections and subsequent lockdown in mid-2021. Since then, activity has rebounded – much like after the first lockdown – but the country is likely to still face a stop-start recovery until there is wider coverage of the COVID-19 vaccine. Notwithstanding this recovery, there has been a rise in poverty and – with the shift back to agriculture for some workers – an increase in household vulnerabilities. We have also seen a widening of inequalities, which have been most severe in the education sector, where schools have now been fully or partially closed for longer than any other country in the world. As a result, Uganda has a long way to go in its quest to build-back-better. Eighteenth Uganda Economic Update includes the special topic of Putting Women at the Center of Uganda’s Economic Revival. In line with the structure of earlier editions of the Uganda Economic Update series, this report reviews recent economic developments – with particular attention paid to the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic – provides an outlook for the macro-economy, and then delves into the special topic.
Social Protection for the Informal Economy: Operational Lessons for Developing Countries in Africa and Beyond

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-03) Guven, Melis ; Jain, Himanshi ; Joubert, Clement

The informal economy in Africa is large and diverse, and it is the main source of employment in the region. It is projected to grow and create more jobs. The informal economy is well established in the region, but it also faces a host of development challenges. It is characterized by low human capital and productivity compared with the formal economy and is typically associated with limited access to resources such as electricity, finance, land, and public services. People who work in the informal economy are usually more susceptible to short-term shocks and the more catastrophic consequences of idiosyncratic shocks (acute short-term crises, such as illness) and covariate shocks (chronic or widespread shocks affecting entire communities). These vulnerabilities are exacerbated because these people ordinarily have limited avenues to formal financial institutions or risk mitigation instruments. Women are more likely to work in the informal economy in Africa and are therefore also more likely to experience precarious work environments. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerabilities of the vast informal economy, especially in urban areas. Social protection cash transfers provided an essential platform for delivering assistance in response to the COVID-19 shock in the Africa region. In addition to macroeconomic measures to support economic recovery, governments needed to limit the damage to livelihoods, especially in the informal economy. Many governments in the region added to their capacity to extend coverage with innovations in targeting and delivering payments by leveraging technology and using big data. In many cases, registration was carried out using mobile technology. Some governments opted to implement more direct registration processes by creating dedicated websites or relying on informal economy associations. These swift responses were success stories in their own right, but they were undertaken essentially as a response to an urgent requirement to provide much-needed support to groups that lacked social protection and to prevent them from slipping into poverty. Governments allocated significant resources, typically through external financing (US6.1 billion dollars in additional spending in 30 countries across Africa).
Chad 2021 Economic Update: Recovering from Shocks – Improving Macro-Fiscal Sustainability to Rebuild Better

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-20) Tchana Tchana, Fulbert ; Noumedem Temgoua, Claudia ; Savadogo, Aboudrahyme

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted Chad’s economic recovery, which started in 2018. GDP contracted by 0.9 percent in 2020. Agriculture and the oil sector remained the main drivers of growth, contributing 1.1 percentage points, while services contracted (contributing -2.0 percent). The impact of containment measures on domestic supply chains pushed up prices, and inflation rose from -1.0 percent in 2019 to 3.5 percent in 2020. Both the fiscal and current account balances deteriorated substantially, and difficulties in financing fiscal deficit may have led to further domestic arrears’ buildup. Given the lack of fiscal space and large financing requirements, bold actions are needed. In this regard, the government could first strengthen economic diversification to enlarge the fiscal base, by removing bottlenecks to livestock exports, adopting business-friendly reform to support the private sector, and strengthening fiscal administration and policy for better revenue collection. Second, the government could improve its spending efficiency to deliver quality service under declining resources by enhancing the selection process, the planning and designing of investment projects, and improving public spending efficiency in health and education. Finally, the government should improve debt sustainability by strengthening its management and transparency.
How COVID-19 Continues to Affect Livelihoods in Kenya: Rapid Response Phone Survey Rounds 1 to 5

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-16) Pape, Utz ; Delius, Antonia

Understanding the socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is important to inform policy responses. The arrival of COVID-19 disrupted lives across all countries and communities, creating unprecedented challenges. As of August 2021, there have been more than 200 million cases globally, with more than 4 million deaths. Throughout the pandemic, governments have adopted measures to curb the spread of the virus, which inadvertently resulted in socioeconomic impacts. To shape and accelerate the recovery, it is important to better understand the implications of the pandemic and its associated restrictions. The strict containment measures that were put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya had negative socioeconomic impacts. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya in March 2020, a range of containment measures were introduced by the Government of Kenya (GoK). These included the promotion of social distancing practices, restrictions on public gatherings, night curfews, shutting down learning institutions, and limits on public transport passenger capacities. Despite this, the number of cases reached 200,000 in August 2021, with more than 4,000 deaths. People were facing job losses, rising food insecurity, and worsening health and education outcomes. Understanding and quantifying the repercussions of the pandemic, particularly on different sub-groups of the population, can help to inform policies and improve targeting.