Sector/Thematic Studies
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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.
Sub-collections of this Collection
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Country Gender Assessment -
Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure -
Emerging Technologies -
Energy Study -
Energy-Environment Review -
Equitable Growth, Finance & Institutions Insight -
Debt and Creditworthiness Study -
General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study -
Legal and Judicial Sector Assessment -
Gender Innovation Lab Federation Causal Evidence Series
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Publication
Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2021/2022: Economic Recovery during Challenging Times
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-22)After suffering a pandemic-driven slump in 2020, Kazakhstan’s economic recovery is on track, having sustained quarterly growth throughout Q3 2021. Reduced COVID-19 cases and the loosening of mobility restrictions support business activities and maintain the rebound in consumer demand. However, annual inflation surged to the highest recorded level since 2016, driven mostly by food price inflation and large-scale disruptions in global supply chains, eroding purchasing power, particularly for lower-income households. We project real GDP growth in the 3.5-4.0 percent range in 2022, although the economy will remain below the pre-pandemic baseline path for the entire forecast horizon. Growth will be supported by robust domestic activity, a supportive fiscal stance, and further progress in vaccination. Despite the improving economic outlook, downside risks remain. The risk of another potential COVID-19 outbreak cannot be ruled out. Rising inflation is another concern and would require a tighter monetary stance, potentially affecting domestic borrowing conditions. Volatile prices and uncertainty over the scale of demand growth for oil are other risks that could weaken the current account and pressure the exchange rate. -
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Philippines Economic Update, December 2021: Regaining Lost Ground, Revitalizing the Filipino Workforce
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-06)The economic rebound gained momentum in the third quarter of 2021 despite another COVID-19 wave. The Philippines has, so far, faced its worst infection wave in September when the 7-day daily average reached about 21,000 cases due to the Delta variant. In response, the authorities reimposed stringent mobility restrictions in Metro Manila and other key metropolitan areas. Nonetheless, compared with previous waves, domestic activity has been less sensitive to infections. Public containment measures constrained overall mobility less, while households and firms have learned to cope with infections and diminished mobility. As a result, the growth momentum was not severely hampered, and the third quarter growth surprised on the upside, exceeding market expectations. The economy expanded by 4.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2021, rebounding from a 10.1 percent contraction over the same period in 2020. Although partially driven by base effects, the growth expansion also reflected an increase in economic activity despite the implementation of several lockdowns. Growth was supported by the industry sector, driven by double-digit growth in manufacturing and robust public construction activity. The services sector posted a more moderate expansion as some key services were subdued by mobility restriction measures. The agriculture sector contracted as farm and livestock outputs were impacted by typhoons and ongoing outbreak of African Swine Fever. Meanwhile, domestic demand improved, supported by a resurgence in public construction spending. Private consumption picked up but still tempered by elevated inflation and unemployment, mobility restrictions, and low consumer confidence. Public consumption growth eased, in part due to the base effects from the swift disbursement of fiscal support a year ago. The global economic recovery strengthened exports, although services trade remained weak. The fiscal stance remains supportive of economic recovery, but the policy space is narrowing. Public spending accelerated from 23.6 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 24.6 percent of GDP in the same period in 2021, in line with the recovery in public investment and ongoing fiscal support. Infrastructure outlays increased from 3.5 percent of GDP to 4.7 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2021, a result of the government’s push on investment spending as part of its recovery program. Meanwhile, public revenues fell from 16.8 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 16.3 percent of GDP over the same period in 2021. Tax revenues rebounded due to strong tax and customs collections, but non-tax revenue contracted following the significant dividend remittances to the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) in the beginning of the pandemic. The fiscal deficit widened from 6.9 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2020 to 8.3 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2021. The wider fiscal deficit has resulted in higher financing needs, which have been met by increased public borrowing. Public debt increased from 54.6 percent of GDP at end-2020 to 63.1 percent of GDP at end-September 2021. -
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Egypt Economic Monitor, December 2021: The Far-Reaching Impact of Government Digitalization
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)The Egyptian economy continues to show resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the macroeconomic and energy sector reforms implemented in recent years, along with measures to ease monetary conditions, provide selected sectoral support and mobilize external financing. Real GDP growth and foreign income activities started recovering since Q4-FY2020/21. However, global COVID-related challenges and an uneven recovery across the world continue to restrain the rebound. Foreign reserves remain ample, but the widened current account deficit has increased financing requirements. Fiscal consolidation has helped bring down the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio. Yet, fiscal space remains constrained by the interest burden and below-potential revenue-mobilization. Egypt is expected to resume pre-pandemic growth in FY2021/22 as the COVID-situation gradually improves. Further advancement of structural reforms is critical to sustain the recovery, drive productivity growth and generate high-earning job opportunities. The Focus Chapter in this report is dedicated to the topic of government digitalization; a key priority of the country’s national structural reform program. Egypt is currently at a relatively elevated level of government digitalization, according to international indices such as the United Nations E-Government Development Index, as well as the newly constructed World Bank GovTech Maturity Index. For the recent digitalization efforts to realize their potential and further enhance governance and public service delivery, continued reforms require focus on: (1) The roll-out of ‘end-to-end’ digital solutions (whereby digital transformation occurs in every step throughout a given governmental process), ensuring the integration and inter-connectedness (inter-operability) of related government systems, (2) Complementing digital transformation with a continued simplification and streamlining of government processes. (3) Strengthening the foundations of the “Digital Economy” in Egypt is crucial to effectively leverage technologies for a more efficient government, and for large-scale uptake by individuals and businesses. This will require (3-a) Continuous investments in digital infrastructure across the country to ensure uninterrupted availability of essential digital government services and universal access to high quality internet, (3-b) Promotion of digital skills, (3-c) Incentivizing use of digital financial services, and (3-d) Ensuring an overall conducive legal and regulatory framework for the digital transformation of the economy. -
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Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-17)The Palestinian economy has started its recovery in 2021 as COVID-related (coronavirus) measures have been eased, but sustainable sources of growth going forward remain limited. Given the decline in the daily number of new COVID-19 cases, lockdowns have been significantly eased in 2021. This combined with the pickup of the vaccination campaign allowed consumer confidence to slowly pick up and business activity to gradually rebound. The economy is estimated to have grown by 5.4 percent, in real terms, in the first half (H1) of 2021, year-on-year. The improved economic performance was fully driven by the West Bank economy while Gaza’s economy remained almost stagnant in H1 2021 due to the 11-day conflict in May. Growth is expected to further pick up throughout the remainder of the year and reach 6 percent in 2021 as the West Bank economy continues to regain more of what was lost during 2020 and with the implementation of some Israeli confidence building measures supporting economic activity and facilitating reconstruction in Gaza. In the following years, growth is expected to hover around 3 percent as the low base effect weakens and as sources of growth remain limited given the ongoing restrictions on movement, access and trade. Unemployment remained stubbornly high in 2021, mainly driven by Gaza. The unemployment rate in the Palestinian territories reached 26.4 percent in the second quarter of 2021: 16.9 percent in the West Bank and 44.7 percent in Gaza, reflecting the particularly difficult economic situation in the Strip due to the effect of the 11-day conflict and the ongoing restrictions. The extremely high unemployment rate in Gaza comes hand-in-hand with deteriorating social conditions in the Strip. Estimates by the World Bank indicate that the recent conflict has pushed poverty in Gaza to 59.3 percent in 2021 (using 5.50 US Dollars a day (2011 PPP) international poverty line). This is 2.3 percentage points higher than the COVID-19 induced peak in 2020, and a 16.3 percentage point increase above the 2016-2017 values (latest available official data). -
Publication
Chad 2021 Economic Update: Recovering from Shocks – Improving Macro-Fiscal Sustainability to Rebuild Better
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-20)The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted Chad’s economic recovery, which started in 2018. GDP contracted by 0.9 percent in 2020. Agriculture and the oil sector remained the main drivers of growth, contributing 1.1 percentage points, while services contracted (contributing -2.0 percent). The impact of containment measures on domestic supply chains pushed up prices, and inflation rose from -1.0 percent in 2019 to 3.5 percent in 2020. Both the fiscal and current account balances deteriorated substantially, and difficulties in financing fiscal deficit may have led to further domestic arrears’ buildup. Given the lack of fiscal space and large financing requirements, bold actions are needed. In this regard, the government could first strengthen economic diversification to enlarge the fiscal base, by removing bottlenecks to livestock exports, adopting business-friendly reform to support the private sector, and strengthening fiscal administration and policy for better revenue collection. Second, the government could improve its spending efficiency to deliver quality service under declining resources by enhancing the selection process, the planning and designing of investment projects, and improving public spending efficiency in health and education. Finally, the government should improve debt sustainability by strengthening its management and transparency. -
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Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2021: Adapting to the New Normal - A Protracted Pandemic and Ongoing Sanctions
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10)Iran’s economy is gradually recovering following a lost decade (2011–2020) of negligible economic growth. Less stringent COVID-19 restrictions, adaptation to the new normal - reflected in a recovery in consumption, and more favorable oil sector conditions have driven a four-quarter rebound after June 2020, albeit from a low base. The rebound was boosted by the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the second half of 2021/22. However, limited accessible foreign exchange reserves, due to ongoing US sanctions, have led to exchange rate volatility and a surge in inflation. The economic rebound has also been predominantly jobless which coupled with high inflation has translated to declining household welfare, especially among the bottom income deciles who were also disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Meanwhile, adverse climate change events such as droughts and record temperatures have led to water shortages and energy blackouts which have brought the socio-economic urgency of these challenges to the fore. -
Publication
Tajikistan Country Economic Update, Summer 2021: Rebounding Economy, Challenges Remain
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08)After the economic slowdown in 2020, Tajikistan’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.7 percent in the first half of 2021. According to the Listening-to-Tajikistan (L2T) survey, the social and economic wellbeing of the population severely deteriorated following the outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus), and the country remained far from full recovery at the end of 2020. The strong economic rebound was mainly supported by a continued sharp increase in the export of precious metals, and a pickup in private investment and consumption. The cautious and incremental resumption of air traffic with regional countries allowed migrants to resume traveling abroad and restore the inflow of remittances. Domestic economic activity strengthened as the government gradually relaxed lockdown measures. In the beginning of 2021, Tajikistan adopted a National Deployment and Vaccination Plan (NDVP) and launched it on March 23, 2021, after receiving the first 192,000 doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine from COVAX. -
Publication
Niger Spring 2021 Economic Update: Maximizing Public Expenditure Efficiency for Rebuilding Better
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-14)The ongoing health and security crisis have partly undermined the benefits from past years of strengthening economic growth. Sustaining an upward trend over the recent years, real growth stood at 5.9 percent in 2019. However, it fell to 3.6 percent in 2020, because of the pandemic and increasingly violent terrorist attacks. Inflation increased to 3.4 percent in 2020, triggered by supply disruptions and speculative behaviors, combined with food shortages. The economy is projected to rebound in 2021, growing at 5.5 percent, with the reopening of the border with Nigeria and the resumption of large investment projects and a normalization of other supply chains. The large import content of these projects will cause the current account deficit to widen further while completion of the main oil pipeline by 2023 should boost revenue and exports over the medium term. However, GDP per capita in 2021 will be only 1 percent higher than in 2019. Addressing inefficient management of a universal fertilizer subsidy program could generate fiscal savings of 0.15 percent of GDP. Until September 2020 fertilizers were sold by Central Agricultural Input and Equipment Supply Agency (CAIMA) and were on average half universally subsidized without targeting specific farmers or crops. The system was characterized by large inefficiencies, including inefficient fertilizer acquisition cost, incapacity to meet the demand and rising operating expenses. After having removed the management of fertilizers from Caima’s mandate, it is important that the Government finalize the ongoing work with development partners for a fertilizers reform that allows a better targeting the subsidies and gives a greater role for the private sector in the fertilizers supply and distribution. -
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Myanmar Economic Monitor, July 2021: Progress Threatened; Resilience Tested
(World Bank, Myanmar, 2021-07)In February 2021 the military assumed power in Myanmar, setting back the country’s democratic transition, and immediately impacting an economy that had already been weakened by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While the initial economic impacts of the coup were extremely severe, in May and June there were early signs that constraints were easing in some areas. Mobility at retail and transport venues improved after the Thingyan holiday in April, and there were reports that factory workers, bank staff, and some public servants had returned to work. Several international apparel buyers resumed placing new orders with garment manufacturers, and logistics bottlenecks eased. Amid substantial uncertainty around the magnitude and duration of recent economic shocks, there are large risks associated with these projections. Relatively severe economic impacts already appear to have persisted for longer than what was assumed even in March, when the authors projected a 10 percent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY21. The third wave of COVID-19 will have substantial additional economic impacts in the September quarter, although the magnitude of these impacts will depend on how the outbreak evolves. Since February the environment for doing business has worsened considerably, impacting productivity across the economy as scarce resources are allocated toward dealing with supply-side constraints. Lost months of education at school and university are of critical concern, including because of the longer-term implications for the accumulation of human capital and productive capacity. With these fundamental drivers of long-term growth at risk, there are already early signs of increased dependence on extractive and or illicit activities, and a return to the inward-looking policies that have characterized much of Myanmar’s history. -
Publication
Central African Republic Economic Update, July 2021: Investing in Human Capital to Protect the Future
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07)The economy of the Central African Republic (CAR) decelerated in 2020 compared to 2019. Despite a relatively contained health impact, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on the country’s economy, with the disruption in global value chains, low external demand, and domestic containment measures that significantly affected trade, transport, and tourism. Nevertheless, CAR’s GDP growth of 0.8 percent has outpaced the average of regional peers (−2.9 percent) and countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) (−1.7 percent). On the supply side, the positive dynamic of the agriculture sector prevented the economy from entering a recession, and the forestry and telecommunications sectors were more resilient than expected. On the demand side, private consumption contracted in 2020, reflecting a decline in household income owing to the pandemic. As a result, the extreme poverty rate increased from 70.7 percent in 2019 to 71.4 percent, affecting a total of more than 3.4 million people, in 2020. CAR’s current account balance (CAD) deteriorated in 2020. The current account deficit widened from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2019 to 8.7 percent of GDP in 2020, driven by weak external demand and private transfers as well as an increased deficit of the balance on goods. With the COVID-19 pandemic, goods exports declined while non-oil imports were boosted by donor-funded investments. CAR’s current account deficit is not expected to be as severe as that of comparator FCV, CEMAC, and Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The capital account balance improved significantly in 2020 due to the rise in external grants, while the financial account surplus shifted into a deficit. The improvement in the capital account has helped narrow the balance of payments deficit and increasing foreign reserves, which reached a level equivalent to about 3.5 months imports at end-2020.