Sector/Thematic Studies
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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.
Sub-collections of this Collection
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Country Gender Assessment -
Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure -
Emerging Technologies -
Energy Study -
Energy-Environment Review -
Equitable Growth, Finance & Institutions Insight -
Debt and Creditworthiness Study -
General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study -
Legal and Judicial Sector Assessment -
Gender Innovation Lab Federation Causal Evidence Series
Items in this collection
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Publication
South Sudan Economic Monitor, February 2022: Towards a Jobs Agenda
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-02-16)South Sudan faced significant headwinds in FY2020/21, with the pandemic, floods, and violence flareups affecting economic activities. Consequently, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 5.4 percent in FY2020/21. Oil production declined by 5.9 percent as floods affected production and the COVID-19 pandemic delayed new investments to replace exhausted wells. In the agriculture sector, flooding precipitated estimated losses of 38,000 tons of cereals (4.3% of 2020 production) and 800,000 livestock according to FAO estimates. The overall cereal deficit was projected to reach 465,610 metric tons in 2021, equivalent to about 35 percent of the overall food requirement for the year, sustaining high levels of food insecurity. Living conditions continue to be impacted by violence, displacement, and inadequate access to basic services. With improving macroeconomic conditions supported by an ongoing macro-fiscal reform program, a modest growth rebound of 1.2 percent is projected in FY2021/22. Nevertheless, poverty levels are expected to remain exceptionally high. As the economy recovers from multiple shocks, a focus on policy options to stimulate the creation of a sufficient number of quality jobs to absorb a young and expanding labor force should take center stage. Economies that create jobs, particularly for the youth, are generally more stable and can elevate public confidence in the Government’s capacity to deliver. In South Sudan, an effective jobs support program would invest in immediate livelihood support, the recovery of modest business activities, and the revival of markets. -
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Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021: Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-20)The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia’s slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery. -
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Rwanda Economic Update, January 2022, Edition No. 18: Boosting Regional Integration in the Post-COVID Era
(World Bank, Kigali, 2022-01)Global economic growth has picked up in 2021 and has now surpassed its pre-pandemic level. The National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) has maintained an accommodative monetary stance and other measures to support the recovery, taking advantage of low inflation. The government’s continued fiscal expansion is also providing support to the economy. Regional integration offers significant benefits for Rwanda, including greater potential for scale economies, opportunities for learning to export and produce higher-quality goods, and cooperation to improve trade facilitation. Regional trade will be enhanced by boosting trade with non- East African Community (EAC) members. The African continental free trade area (AfCFTA) can boost growth and trade integration. The development of Rwanda as a regional logistics hub, serving as an intermediating node between the East and Central Africa regions offers prospects to increase revenues and generate efficiency gains through the concentration of logistics services. The white paper on logistics and distribution services strategy for Rwanda, prepared with the support of the World Bank, laid out a two-phase strategy for the rollout of Rwanda as regional logistic hub. This involved: (i) improving the efficiency of Rwanda’s role as a land-bridge for re-exports to Goma in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); and (ii) establishing a regional logistics hub in Rwanda linked to a primary multi-modal hub at Kisangani and a secondary multi-modal hub at Kindu. -
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Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2021/2022: Economic Recovery during Challenging Times
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-22)After suffering a pandemic-driven slump in 2020, Kazakhstan’s economic recovery is on track, having sustained quarterly growth throughout Q3 2021. Reduced COVID-19 cases and the loosening of mobility restrictions support business activities and maintain the rebound in consumer demand. However, annual inflation surged to the highest recorded level since 2016, driven mostly by food price inflation and large-scale disruptions in global supply chains, eroding purchasing power, particularly for lower-income households. We project real GDP growth in the 3.5-4.0 percent range in 2022, although the economy will remain below the pre-pandemic baseline path for the entire forecast horizon. Growth will be supported by robust domestic activity, a supportive fiscal stance, and further progress in vaccination. Despite the improving economic outlook, downside risks remain. The risk of another potential COVID-19 outbreak cannot be ruled out. Rising inflation is another concern and would require a tighter monetary stance, potentially affecting domestic borrowing conditions. Volatile prices and uncertainty over the scale of demand growth for oil are other risks that could weaken the current account and pressure the exchange rate. -
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Philippines Economic Update, December 2021: Regaining Lost Ground, Revitalizing the Filipino Workforce
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-06)The economic rebound gained momentum in the third quarter of 2021 despite another COVID-19 wave. The Philippines has, so far, faced its worst infection wave in September when the 7-day daily average reached about 21,000 cases due to the Delta variant. In response, the authorities reimposed stringent mobility restrictions in Metro Manila and other key metropolitan areas. Nonetheless, compared with previous waves, domestic activity has been less sensitive to infections. Public containment measures constrained overall mobility less, while households and firms have learned to cope with infections and diminished mobility. As a result, the growth momentum was not severely hampered, and the third quarter growth surprised on the upside, exceeding market expectations. The economy expanded by 4.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2021, rebounding from a 10.1 percent contraction over the same period in 2020. Although partially driven by base effects, the growth expansion also reflected an increase in economic activity despite the implementation of several lockdowns. Growth was supported by the industry sector, driven by double-digit growth in manufacturing and robust public construction activity. The services sector posted a more moderate expansion as some key services were subdued by mobility restriction measures. The agriculture sector contracted as farm and livestock outputs were impacted by typhoons and ongoing outbreak of African Swine Fever. Meanwhile, domestic demand improved, supported by a resurgence in public construction spending. Private consumption picked up but still tempered by elevated inflation and unemployment, mobility restrictions, and low consumer confidence. Public consumption growth eased, in part due to the base effects from the swift disbursement of fiscal support a year ago. The global economic recovery strengthened exports, although services trade remained weak. The fiscal stance remains supportive of economic recovery, but the policy space is narrowing. Public spending accelerated from 23.6 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 24.6 percent of GDP in the same period in 2021, in line with the recovery in public investment and ongoing fiscal support. Infrastructure outlays increased from 3.5 percent of GDP to 4.7 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2021, a result of the government’s push on investment spending as part of its recovery program. Meanwhile, public revenues fell from 16.8 percent of GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 to 16.3 percent of GDP over the same period in 2021. Tax revenues rebounded due to strong tax and customs collections, but non-tax revenue contracted following the significant dividend remittances to the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) in the beginning of the pandemic. The fiscal deficit widened from 6.9 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2020 to 8.3 percent of GDP in Q1-Q3 2021. The wider fiscal deficit has resulted in higher financing needs, which have been met by increased public borrowing. Public debt increased from 54.6 percent of GDP at end-2020 to 63.1 percent of GDP at end-September 2021. -
Publication
Egypt Economic Monitor, December 2021: The Far-Reaching Impact of Government Digitalization
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)The Egyptian economy continues to show resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the macroeconomic and energy sector reforms implemented in recent years, along with measures to ease monetary conditions, provide selected sectoral support and mobilize external financing. Real GDP growth and foreign income activities started recovering since Q4-FY2020/21. However, global COVID-related challenges and an uneven recovery across the world continue to restrain the rebound. Foreign reserves remain ample, but the widened current account deficit has increased financing requirements. Fiscal consolidation has helped bring down the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio. Yet, fiscal space remains constrained by the interest burden and below-potential revenue-mobilization. Egypt is expected to resume pre-pandemic growth in FY2021/22 as the COVID-situation gradually improves. Further advancement of structural reforms is critical to sustain the recovery, drive productivity growth and generate high-earning job opportunities. The Focus Chapter in this report is dedicated to the topic of government digitalization; a key priority of the country’s national structural reform program. Egypt is currently at a relatively elevated level of government digitalization, according to international indices such as the United Nations E-Government Development Index, as well as the newly constructed World Bank GovTech Maturity Index. For the recent digitalization efforts to realize their potential and further enhance governance and public service delivery, continued reforms require focus on: (1) The roll-out of ‘end-to-end’ digital solutions (whereby digital transformation occurs in every step throughout a given governmental process), ensuring the integration and inter-connectedness (inter-operability) of related government systems, (2) Complementing digital transformation with a continued simplification and streamlining of government processes. (3) Strengthening the foundations of the “Digital Economy” in Egypt is crucial to effectively leverage technologies for a more efficient government, and for large-scale uptake by individuals and businesses. This will require (3-a) Continuous investments in digital infrastructure across the country to ensure uninterrupted availability of essential digital government services and universal access to high quality internet, (3-b) Promotion of digital skills, (3-c) Incentivizing use of digital financial services, and (3-d) Ensuring an overall conducive legal and regulatory framework for the digital transformation of the economy. -
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Uganda Economic Update, 18th Edition, December 2021: Putting Women at the Center of Uganda’s Economic Revival
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)Uganda’s economy was recovering well, up until the second wave of COVID-19 infections and subsequent lockdown in mid-2021. Since then, activity has rebounded – much like after the first lockdown – but the country is likely to still face a stop-start recovery until there is wider coverage of the COVID-19 vaccine. Notwithstanding this recovery, there has been a rise in poverty and – with the shift back to agriculture for some workers – an increase in household vulnerabilities. We have also seen a widening of inequalities, which have been most severe in the education sector, where schools have now been fully or partially closed for longer than any other country in the world. As a result, Uganda has a long way to go in its quest to build-back-better. Eighteenth Uganda Economic Update includes the special topic of Putting Women at the Center of Uganda’s Economic Revival. In line with the structure of earlier editions of the Uganda Economic Update series, this report reviews recent economic developments – with particular attention paid to the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic – provides an outlook for the macro-economy, and then delves into the special topic. -
Publication
Chad 2021 Economic Update: Recovering from Shocks – Improving Macro-Fiscal Sustainability to Rebuild Better
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-20)The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted Chad’s economic recovery, which started in 2018. GDP contracted by 0.9 percent in 2020. Agriculture and the oil sector remained the main drivers of growth, contributing 1.1 percentage points, while services contracted (contributing -2.0 percent). The impact of containment measures on domestic supply chains pushed up prices, and inflation rose from -1.0 percent in 2019 to 3.5 percent in 2020. Both the fiscal and current account balances deteriorated substantially, and difficulties in financing fiscal deficit may have led to further domestic arrears’ buildup. Given the lack of fiscal space and large financing requirements, bold actions are needed. In this regard, the government could first strengthen economic diversification to enlarge the fiscal base, by removing bottlenecks to livestock exports, adopting business-friendly reform to support the private sector, and strengthening fiscal administration and policy for better revenue collection. Second, the government could improve its spending efficiency to deliver quality service under declining resources by enhancing the selection process, the planning and designing of investment projects, and improving public spending efficiency in health and education. Finally, the government should improve debt sustainability by strengthening its management and transparency. -
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Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2021: Adapting to the New Normal - A Protracted Pandemic and Ongoing Sanctions
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10)Iran’s economy is gradually recovering following a lost decade (2011–2020) of negligible economic growth. Less stringent COVID-19 restrictions, adaptation to the new normal - reflected in a recovery in consumption, and more favorable oil sector conditions have driven a four-quarter rebound after June 2020, albeit from a low base. The rebound was boosted by the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the second half of 2021/22. However, limited accessible foreign exchange reserves, due to ongoing US sanctions, have led to exchange rate volatility and a surge in inflation. The economic rebound has also been predominantly jobless which coupled with high inflation has translated to declining household welfare, especially among the bottom income deciles who were also disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Meanwhile, adverse climate change events such as droughts and record temperatures have led to water shortages and energy blackouts which have brought the socio-economic urgency of these challenges to the fore. -
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Tajikistan Country Economic Update, Summer 2021: Rebounding Economy, Challenges Remain
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08)After the economic slowdown in 2020, Tajikistan’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.7 percent in the first half of 2021. According to the Listening-to-Tajikistan (L2T) survey, the social and economic wellbeing of the population severely deteriorated following the outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus), and the country remained far from full recovery at the end of 2020. The strong economic rebound was mainly supported by a continued sharp increase in the export of precious metals, and a pickup in private investment and consumption. The cautious and incremental resumption of air traffic with regional countries allowed migrants to resume traveling abroad and restore the inflow of remittances. Domestic economic activity strengthened as the government gradually relaxed lockdown measures. In the beginning of 2021, Tajikistan adopted a National Deployment and Vaccination Plan (NDVP) and launched it on March 23, 2021, after receiving the first 192,000 doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine from COVAX.