Sector/Thematic Studies

6,688 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

Sub-collections of this Collection

Items in this collection

Now showing 1 - 10 of 56

Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021: Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-20) World Bank

The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia’s slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery.
Jordan Economic Monitor - Spring 2022: Global Turbulence Dampens Recovery and Job Creation

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

Jordan’s economy achieved a relatively strong rebound, registering 2.2 percent growth in 2021. The nascent recovery was led by a broad-based expansion of the services and industrial sectors, while the rebound in the travel and tourism also exceeded expectations. This robust economic recovery was supported by accommodative but prudent monetary and fiscal policy along with a recovery in domestic demand and the gradual reopening of the economy. However, the recovery of some subsectors, particularly contact-intensive services continues to lag behind pre-pandemic level, leading to weak recovery in jobs, especially among the Jordanian youth. Moreover, the underlying improvement in domestic demand amid an unprecedented increase in the global commodity prices has kept the current account deficit elevated for another year. Nonetheless, Jordan ended 2021 on a strong footing as Central Bank’s gross foreign reserves remained at a comfortable level, on the back of strong multilateral and bilateral support. Meanwhile, the Central Government resumed its fiscal consolidation path, aided by strong growth in both tax and non-tax revenues. The Jordanian economy is expected to sustain recent momentum during 2022, aided by a full opening of the economy and a return in tourism and travel which is anticipated to boost Jordan’s services sector. However, persistent global headwinds, including rising international commodity prices, global supply chain bottlenecks, negative spillovers from Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Fed tapering, pose major downside risks to Jordan’s economic outlook. Thus, a private sector driven growth and investment reform agenda needs to be put in place immediately which can help Jordan manage turbulence and uncertainty better.
Study on Nonfarm Livelihoods in Refugee-Hosting Regions in Ethiopia: Nonfarm Livelihood Subcomponent Assessment and Recommendations for DRDIP Phase II

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

The Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project (DRDIP) is a World Bank-supported regional program in the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti, and Kenya), which aims to improve access to social services, expand economic opportunities, and enhance environmental management for host and forcibly displaced communities. It was initiated in 2016 for a five-year period with hundred million US dollars total funding for Ethiopia provided by the government of Ethiopia and the World Bank. For Phase II, DRDIP aims to improve and strengthen the nonfarm livelihood interventions, focusing on women and youth. This study assesses the activities implemented under DRDIP’s nonfarm livelihood subcomponent and provides an analysis of the nonfarm economy in Ethiopia’s refugee-hosting areas to shape future DRDIP interventions. Promising nonfarm livelihood options for refugee and host communities, particularly women and youth, are identified. The study findings offer actionable recommendations with clearly identified entry points for increasing the effectiveness and impact of DRDIP’s nonfarm livelihood activities on the targeted refugees and host communities.
Algeria Economic Update - Fall 2021: Restoring the Algerian Economy after the Pandemic

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-12-23)

Algeria is enjoying temporarily breathing space, as hydrocarbon prices reach new highs and the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic eases. After peaking during the summer, the number of daily Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases plummeted in the Fall, while the vaccination campaign accelerated. Meanwhile, global oil and gas prices are reaching levels unseen since before the 2014 oil crisis, allowing for a gradual recovery in crude oil production quotas, and a surge in natural gas production and exports. Surging hydrocarbon exports revenues are contributing to a marked decline in external financing needs and to the short-term stabilization in growing domestic financing needs. Meanwhile, the economic recovery in non-hydrocarbon sectors lost steam, remaining largely incomplete, while inflationary risks are materializing. Absent decisive implementation of the reform agenda, the economic outlook points to a fragile recovery, and to deteriorating fiscal and external balances in the medium-term. Algeria’s intact dependance on hydrocarbon revenues, the spread of new Coronavirus (COVID-19) variants and the pace of the announced reform effort remain the key sources of risks to the outlook.
Egypt Economic Monitor, December 2021: The Far-Reaching Impact of Government Digitalization

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) World Bank

The Egyptian economy continues to show resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the macroeconomic and energy sector reforms implemented in recent years, along with measures to ease monetary conditions, provide selected sectoral support and mobilize external financing. Real GDP growth and foreign income activities started recovering since Q4-FY2020/21. However, global COVID-related challenges and an uneven recovery across the world continue to restrain the rebound. Foreign reserves remain ample, but the widened current account deficit has increased financing requirements. Fiscal consolidation has helped bring down the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio. Yet, fiscal space remains constrained by the interest burden and below-potential revenue-mobilization. Egypt is expected to resume pre-pandemic growth in FY2021/22 as the COVID-situation gradually improves. Further advancement of structural reforms is critical to sustain the recovery, drive productivity growth and generate high-earning job opportunities. The Focus Chapter in this report is dedicated to the topic of government digitalization; a key priority of the country’s national structural reform program. Egypt is currently at a relatively elevated level of government digitalization, according to international indices such as the United Nations E-Government Development Index, as well as the newly constructed World Bank GovTech Maturity Index. For the recent digitalization efforts to realize their potential and further enhance governance and public service delivery, continued reforms require focus on: (1) The roll-out of ‘end-to-end’ digital solutions (whereby digital transformation occurs in every step throughout a given governmental process), ensuring the integration and inter-connectedness (inter-operability) of related government systems, (2) Complementing digital transformation with a continued simplification and streamlining of government processes. (3) Strengthening the foundations of the “Digital Economy” in Egypt is crucial to effectively leverage technologies for a more efficient government, and for large-scale uptake by individuals and businesses. This will require (3-a) Continuous investments in digital infrastructure across the country to ensure uninterrupted availability of essential digital government services and universal access to high quality internet, (3-b) Promotion of digital skills, (3-c) Incentivizing use of digital financial services, and (3-d) Ensuring an overall conducive legal and regulatory framework for the digital transformation of the economy.
Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-17) World Bank Group

The Palestinian economy has started its recovery in 2021 as COVID-related (coronavirus) measures have been eased, but sustainable sources of growth going forward remain limited. Given the decline in the daily number of new COVID-19 cases, lockdowns have been significantly eased in 2021. This combined with the pickup of the vaccination campaign allowed consumer confidence to slowly pick up and business activity to gradually rebound. The economy is estimated to have grown by 5.4 percent, in real terms, in the first half (H1) of 2021, year-on-year. The improved economic performance was fully driven by the West Bank economy while Gaza’s economy remained almost stagnant in H1 2021 due to the 11-day conflict in May. Growth is expected to further pick up throughout the remainder of the year and reach 6 percent in 2021 as the West Bank economy continues to regain more of what was lost during 2020 and with the implementation of some Israeli confidence building measures supporting economic activity and facilitating reconstruction in Gaza. In the following years, growth is expected to hover around 3 percent as the low base effect weakens and as sources of growth remain limited given the ongoing restrictions on movement, access and trade. Unemployment remained stubbornly high in 2021, mainly driven by Gaza. The unemployment rate in the Palestinian territories reached 26.4 percent in the second quarter of 2021: 16.9 percent in the West Bank and 44.7 percent in Gaza, reflecting the particularly difficult economic situation in the Strip due to the effect of the 11-day conflict and the ongoing restrictions. The extremely high unemployment rate in Gaza comes hand-in-hand with deteriorating social conditions in the Strip. Estimates by the World Bank indicate that the recent conflict has pushed poverty in Gaza to 59.3 percent in 2021 (using 5.50 US Dollars a day (2011 PPP) international poverty line). This is 2.3 percentage points higher than the COVID-19 induced peak in 2020, and a 16.3 percentage point increase above the 2016-2017 values (latest available official data).
Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2021: Adapting to the New Normal - A Protracted Pandemic and Ongoing Sanctions

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10) World Bank

Iran’s economy is gradually recovering following a lost decade (2011–2020) of negligible economic growth. Less stringent COVID-19 restrictions, adaptation to the new normal - reflected in a recovery in consumption, and more favorable oil sector conditions have driven a four-quarter rebound after June 2020, albeit from a low base. The rebound was boosted by the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the second half of 2021/22. However, limited accessible foreign exchange reserves, due to ongoing US sanctions, have led to exchange rate volatility and a surge in inflation. The economic rebound has also been predominantly jobless which coupled with high inflation has translated to declining household welfare, especially among the bottom income deciles who were also disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Meanwhile, adverse climate change events such as droughts and record temperatures have led to water shortages and energy blackouts which have brought the socio-economic urgency of these challenges to the fore.
Enhancing Female Entrepreneurship through Cash Grants: Experimental Evidence from Rural Tunisia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07) Ferrah, Samih ; Gazeaud, Jules ; Khan, Nausheen ; Mvukiyehe, Eric ; Shrotri, Varada ; Sterck, Olivier ; Zineb, Samir Ben ; Mottaghi, Lili

In Tunisia, while social protection and labor programs are in place, severe challenges including inefficiency, fragmentation, and inequity limit the country’s ability to respond to increasing social needs. Gender issues are also one of the critical areas since young women are experiencing even more severe challenges getting into the tight labor market than young men. Unemployment in the MENA region has been a challenge for some time, markedly during the Arab Spring, resulting in the need to create over 50 million jobs in the region in the next decade, to ensure socio-political stability. Unemployment rates are highest in rural and low-income areas. It is in this context that a pilot project of Community Works andLocal Participation (CWLP) was initiated in rural Jendouba in 2015. It was financed by the Japan Social Development Fund (JSDF) through the World Bank and implemented by the Tunisia Republic’s Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment (MVTE). A rigorous randomized control trial (RCT) was embedded in the second phase of the CWLP roll-out (starting in late 2015 and early 2016) and carried out by the World Bank’sDIME Department in partnership with MVET’s ONEQ. The study’s main objective was to capture the effects of CWLP’s cash for work activities. The results of this study, based on a detailed survey of over 4,000 participants and non-participants 6-12 months after completion of project activities, suggested that in general, the CWLP has had positive impacts on the economic well-being of beneficiaries and to a small extent on social and psychological well-being. However, these results also raised concerns that these positive effects may not persist in the long-run, particularly for women who still face huge constraints participating in the tight labor market, which has yet to fully recover to pre-Jasmine revolution levels.
Jordan Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Uncertain and Long Trail Ahead

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-23) World Bank

Despite recent progress on vaccine developments to combat the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, the global economic recovery remains surrounded by high uncertainty. During the first half of 2020, global economic output declined by an unprecedented level, resulting in a sharp fall in global trade. The latest estimates from the IMF WEO in April 2021 indicate that the global economy contracted by 3.3 percent in 2020. This contraction is substantially deeper than one observed during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 - 08. However, recent trends are pointing toward a strong recovery for global economic activity in the second half of 2021 supported by substantial fiscal and monetary stimuli. Nevertheless, the extent of the protraction is closely linked to vaccine rollout, which is gaining critical mass in some developed economies, but remains uneven across the world. Indeed, the World Bank is projecting global economy to grow by 4 percent in 2021. Nevertheless, this global outlook retains an important country-specific component which depends on the adjustment capacity of each economy as well as the effectiveness of its policy to minimize permanent scarring to the economy as well as pace and scale of domestic vaccine rollout.
Tunisia Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Navigating Out of the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06) World Bank

Due to disruptions in international trade and tourism triggered by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, the Tunisian economy contracted by unprecedented levels during 2020. Fortunately, recent data indicates that the economy stabilized during the first quarter of 2021, with quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) growth no longer in negative territory. In comparison with regional peers, Tunisia experienced a sharper contraction than others, having entered the crisis while already experiencing slow growth, limited fiscal space, and rising debt levels. While the government managed the first phase of the pandemic well from a health standpoint, this early success waned as controls were relaxed later in 2020. A record 13.3 decline in the tradable services sector and a 11.7 percent drop in exports contributed towards the 8.8 percent economic contraction, as weak global demand depressed industrial and tourism exports throughout 2020. As a result, unemployment rose from 14.9 to 17.4 percent, contributing to the wave of protests breaking out around the country on the 10-year anniversary of the Arab Spring. Some of the recent gains made in poverty reduction will be lost because the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty increased during 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 on the economy.