Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No.22, Fall 2022: Beyond the Crises

(Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank

The economies of the Western Balkans continue to face a turbulent external environment, placing households, firms, and governments under acute stress. Just as the post-COVID recovery of 2021 began to fade and the region returned to a normalized rate of economic growth, the Western Balkan region now faces a new combination of challenges. The war in Ukraine, and the resultant sharp increase and energy prices and slowdown in global growth, is weighing on economic performance in all six economies. Higher energy and food prices have pushed inflation to levels unseen for many years, eroding purchasing power and business confidence. Monetary tightening in advanced economies is pushing up financing costs and weakening external demand. Following a strong rebound in 2021, growth, although still robust, was on a decelerating path in the first half of 2022. In Q1 of 2022, the Western Balkan economies remained resilient overall, supported by sizable policy actions at the EU, euro area, and national levels. First-quarter growth was particularly strong in tourism-based economies and in Serbia. However, growth decelerated in Q2, as countries had to deal with the direct consequences of the war and is projected to continue decelerating in the second half of the year reflecting higher base levels of growth in Q3 and Q4 2021 and the stronger global headwinds.
Turkey Economic Monitor February 2022: Sailing Against the Tide

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-01)

Turkey’s economic performance has been a tale of two economies, overall high growth, matched by a deterioration in macro-financial conditions. Good progress in vaccination rollouts allowed Turkey to reopen gradually in 2021 despite a continued rise in Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases. Real economic activity remained strong, driven by strong broad-based export growth and domestic demand. Exports of goods reached record high levels in 2021 supported by buoyant external demand, improved price competitiveness and demand shifts to Turkey due to rising shipping costs. Turkey’s GDP grew by 22 percent year-on-year in 2021Q2–the second highest among G-20 countries–and 7.4 percent in 2021Q3. Strong goods and services export performance helped current account deficit to narrow significantly. Robust economic activity led to strong revenue growth and supported fiscal balances. The labor market saw a good recovery in 2021 and employment levels surpassed pre-pandemic levels, supported by buoyant economic activity. The regional inequalities of the COVID-19 shock manifested in larger impacts for women from Eastern regions, widening pre-existing gender gaps. The authorities began to cut interest rates in September, by 500 basis points by the end of 2021, despite rising inflation and inflation expectations. This has exacerbated macro-financial conditions and impacted investor confidence - causing financial market turbulence, large deprecation of the Lira, higher inflation, and increased dollarization. The Lira has been the most depreciating currency among emerging market economies this year. The large depreciation of the Lira coupled with rising international prices caused inflation to increase to its highest rate since the August 2018 shock.
Moldova Policy Notes 2021: Sectoral Recommendations

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-12) World Bank

Moldova’s policy priorities and key actions going forward: Strengthening the capacity and governance of public administration; Strengthening the judiciary and the fight against corruption; Supporting a resilient recovery while safeguarding fiscal sustainability; Building fiscal resilience at the subnational level with land administration and property registration and valuation; Enhancing labor markets and addressing COVID-19 challenges; Achieving a sustainable social protection system; Improving the efficiency and resilience of health service delivery; Strengthening environment protection and disaster risk management; Water resource management; Increasing resilience and competitiveness of agriculture; Enhancing the business environment and market competition; Fostering SMEs and strengthening FDI linkages; Enhancing financial sector stability and governance; Strengthening education outcomes and skills; Expanding inclusive digital development opportunities; Multimodal transport and logistics; and Addressing energy security and sustainability.
Agriculture, Water, and Land Policies to Scale Up Sustainable Agrifood Systems in Georgia: Synthesis Report and Way Forward

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022) World Bank

This Synthesis report summarizes the main constraints and opportunities that Georgia faces in amplifying the contribution of the agriculture sector to the country’s economic growth and diversification, employment creation, poverty reduction, food security and nutrition, and climate resilience and mitigation. Successful achievement of these multiple objectives, however, requires an integrated set of multi-sectoral policies. Synergistic public and private investments in agriculture, water, and land can lead to increased production and productivity by transitioning from low returns from agriculture to high-value crop production.
Social Protection Situational Analysis : Serbia

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

The objective of this situational analysis is to provide a brief assessment of Serbia’s social protection system. The situational analysis identifies how Serbia’s social protection system performs and outlines areas for reform. In this note, social protection refers to: (i) social assistance, (ii) social services, (iii) social insurance (pensions), and (iv) employment and labor market programs. The analysis is based on existing evidence and identifies knowledge gaps to be covered in further analysis. The analysis shows that Serbia operates a comprehensive social protection system; however, policy priorities and inefficiencies in program execution reduce efficiency and effectiveness. Section one gives introduction. The second section provides an overview of poverty and labor market outcomes in Serbia. The third section provides an overview of the social protection system in aggregate, followed by more detailed analysis of social assistance, social services, pensions, and employment programs. A specific section is dedicated to reviewing the social protection system’s response to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The final section provides an overview of reform priorities and knowledge gaps.
Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2021/2022: Economic Recovery during Challenging Times

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-22) World Bank

After suffering a pandemic-driven slump in 2020, Kazakhstan’s economic recovery is on track, having sustained quarterly growth throughout Q3 2021. Reduced COVID-19 cases and the loosening of mobility restrictions support business activities and maintain the rebound in consumer demand. However, annual inflation surged to the highest recorded level since 2016, driven mostly by food price inflation and large-scale disruptions in global supply chains, eroding purchasing power, particularly for lower-income households. We project real GDP growth in the 3.5-4.0 percent range in 2022, although the economy will remain below the pre-pandemic baseline path for the entire forecast horizon. Growth will be supported by robust domestic activity, a supportive fiscal stance, and further progress in vaccination. Despite the improving economic outlook, downside risks remain. The risk of another potential COVID-19 outbreak cannot be ruled out. Rising inflation is another concern and would require a tighter monetary stance, potentially affecting domestic borrowing conditions. Volatile prices and uncertainty over the scale of demand growth for oil are other risks that could weaken the current account and pressure the exchange rate.
Ukraine: Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture and Forestry

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) World Bank

Ukraine has made impressive progress on key reforms and restored macro-financial stability, but weak growth and poverty remain a concern. Despite these economic challenges, Ukraine recognizes climate change as the most consequential factor this century, affecting the economy and future generations. This study is the first detailed assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Ukraine, with a focus on agriculture, a key driver of the economy and jobs. The analysis provides an insight into the spatial dimension of climate change, how these changes would be experienced in different oblasts in the country. This report is supported by four background technical reports on climate projections, impact on agriculture, impact on forests and distributional analysis. In addition, climate datasets of over two terabytes generated for this assessment are housed at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Kyiv. The results of this study are expected to inform Ukraine’s national adaptation strategy, which is now being finalized. This study also paves the way for the development of sub-national and sectoral adaptation strategies with the spatially disaggregated information that has been generated for all oblasts.
Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 20, Fall 2021: Greening the Recovery

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-20) World Bank

Fiscal balances have started to improve as a result of a stronger economic performance, but it will take further effort to replenish buffers. The growth recovery is contributing to buoyant revenue collection across the region, particularly in value-added tax collections, as domestic consumption strengthens. Similarly, a leveling off of public spending in 2021 after the countercyclical surge of 2020 is helping on the expenditure side. As a result, all countries except Bosnia and Herzegovina expect to see a narrower fiscal deficit in 2021, with the average deficit reduced by 2.7 percent of GDP year-on-year. However, the deficits across all economies of the Western Balkans are still above pre-pandemic trends, and the legacy of the pandemic is a stock of public debt that has now reached historic highs in all countries except Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As the recovery from COVID-19 takes hold, greater efforts will be needed to mobilize and diversify sources of revenue and to streamline expenditure programs, which in turn would help address fiscal vulnerabilities that have arisen during the crisis. In line with global conditions, inflationary pressures in the Western Balkans are on an upward trajectory. Average inflation is projected to reach 2.3 percent in 2021 from 0.9 percent in 2020. On the external side, strengthening demand in advanced economies is driving commodity prices upward and putting pressure on COVID-19-strained logistics networks and global value chains. Similarly, the faster-than-expected recovery in domestic consumption across the region has placed upward pressure on domestic costs, particularly in labor markets during the summer tourism season.
Tajikistan Country Economic Update, Summer 2021: Rebounding Economy, Challenges Remain

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08) World Bank

After the economic slowdown in 2020, Tajikistan’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.7 percent in the first half of 2021. According to the Listening-to-Tajikistan (L2T) survey, the social and economic wellbeing of the population severely deteriorated following the outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus), and the country remained far from full recovery at the end of 2020. The strong economic rebound was mainly supported by a continued sharp increase in the export of precious metals, and a pickup in private investment and consumption. The cautious and incremental resumption of air traffic with regional countries allowed migrants to resume traveling abroad and restore the inflow of remittances. Domestic economic activity strengthened as the government gradually relaxed lockdown measures. In the beginning of 2021, Tajikistan adopted a National Deployment and Vaccination Plan (NDVP) and launched it on March 23, 2021, after receiving the first 192,000 doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine from COVAX.
Inclusive Growth at a Crossroads: Part One of Strengthening Inclusion and Facilitating the Green Transition

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-07-21) World Bank

The period of the COVID-19 pandemic will be marked and remembered. It will certainly be known for the ongoing health crisis that has reverberated across the world, leading to significant social impacts, rising inequality and poverty rates, and the steepest recession in Europe since World War II. It could, however, also be known as the trigger for a shift towards policies that will enhance developmental and environmental outcomes. With economies at a crossroads, it is up to governments to make this shift happen. Countries in Europe will need to ensure a green, resilient and inclusive recovery. This report explores the impacts of COVID-19 on inclusive growth and considers the policies that are needed to strengthen resilience and to ensure that inclusivity is woven into the fabric of societies.