Sector/Thematic Studies
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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.
Sub-collections of this Collection
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Country Gender Assessment -
Recent Economic Development in Infrastructure -
Emerging Technologies -
Energy Study -
Energy-Environment Review -
Equitable Growth, Finance & Institutions Insight -
Debt and Creditworthiness Study -
General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study -
Legal and Judicial Sector Assessment -
Gender Innovation Lab Federation Causal Evidence Series
Items in this collection
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Publication
Russia Economic Report, No. 45, May 2021: Russia’s Economic Recovery Gathers Pace
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05-25)The COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt activity across the world, casting wide uncertainty around GDP projections. Despite the protracted and uncertain nature of the pandemic, global GDP growth is forecast to recover to 4 percent in 2021 and to moderate to 3.8 percent in 2022 under baseline assumptions established in January 2021. The baseline recovery, however, is not sufficient to return global output to pre-pandemic projections by 2022, with levels expected to be 4.4 percent below pre-pandemic projections next year. COVID-19 has reversed hard-won gains in poverty reduction, with the pandemic expected to push over 100 million people into extreme poverty by the end of 2021. Accompanying the rise in extreme poverty is that of food insecurity, especially in light of the steep falls in household incomes due to widespread job losses – many of which are not anticipated to be regained this year. The pandemic is expected to have longer-term scarring effects on productivity growth and potential output, as the erosion of business confidence further weakens investment and as human capital accumulation slows due to a deterioration in health outcomes, extended school closures, and prolonged unemployment. Global trade continues to recover, but with wide variations across countries and sectors. Global financing conditions remain accommodative amid ongoing vaccination drives in major economies. -
Publication
Organization and Delivery of Child Protection Services in Russia: With Two Case Studies - The Leningrad Oblast and the Republic of Tatarstan
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05-10)This policy note looks at the institutional architecture and organization of the child protection service delivery in Russia. The objective is to understand how a complex set of child protection actors regulated at federal, regional and local levels functions on the ground and it is intended to inform the policy debate in Russia about effective and efficient ways to organize the delivery of child protection policies and programs. For a closer look, two regions serve as case studies: the Leningrad Oblast and the Republic of Tatarstan. These two regions were chosen, first, because they both have lower rates of children entering public care than many other regions in Russia and, second, because they have spearheaded the child protection system changes but each in its own way, providing an opportunity to illustrate a variety of approaches that Russian regions have chosen to pursue. The Note focuses is on formally reported children who are left without parental care and have been placed under the state care (children in formal care; children in care or looked after children) and on families in difficult life situations, at risk or in crisis in need of assistance to mitigate the risk and/or overcome crisis and prevent family separation. The note is a follow up to several earlier World Bank studies on child welfare in Russia, including children with disabilities, prepared over in 2017-2018 as part of the Reimbursable Advisory Service (RAS) with the Russian Agency for Strategic Initiatives.3 It is based on the following sources of information: (i) legal and strategic documents at the federal, regional and local levels; (ii) official statistical data on children left without parental care and children in public care collected at the federal level: data on the number of biological and social orphans identified and recorded each year (inflow); data on the total (stock) number of children without parental care and data on the forms of their placement); and data from the Federal Databank of Orphaned Children, and (iii) information obtained through a qualitative study using a series of in-depth expert interviews with policy makers and practitioners in the Leningrad Oblast and the Republic of Tatarstan. -
Publication
Russia Economic Report, No. 44, December 2020: Russia's Economy Loses Momentum Amidst COVID-19 Resurgence; Awaits Relief from Vaccine
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12-16)In Q2, Russia’s GDP contracted sharply, faced with domestic supply and demand, and terms of trade shocks. Yet supported by exports, GDP growth performed slightly above expectations. In the third quarter, as COVID-19 cases declined, restrictions eased and on the back of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory measures. Economic activity showed signs of picking up, as reflected by some resumption in industrial production sectors and services. However, negative momentum is expected to continue in Q4 amidst rising COVID-19 infection rates and re-installment of some mobility restrictions. The COVID-19 pandemic weakened corporate balance sheets, especially in services sectors such as hotels, tourist agencies, railway and airpassenger transportation. -
Publication
Assessing the Needs of the Elderly in Integrated Health and Social Services in the Russian Federation
(World Bank, Moscow, 2020-07-02)The populations of both developed and developing countries are aging, a trend that means that all countries need to pay particular attention to providing health and social care to the elderly. The aging of the population is one of the key global drivers for integration of care. The increasing incidence of chronic diseases and comorbidities requires more coordination across care providers and settings. Improving health and social services for elderly people is one of the priorities for the government of the Russian Federation. This report attempts to address that gap by presenting the results of a study conducted in three Russian regions to assess the needs of the elderly for integrated health and social services. The main objective of this study is to find out to what extent the national social and health care policies targeting the elderly meet their needs and consider their abilities. -
Publication
Russia Economic Report, No. 43, July 2020: Recession and Growth Under the Shadow of a Pandemic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has triggered a deep global economic recession. The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) shock is the most adverse peacetime shock to the global economy in a century. The Russian Federation possesses a high-quality education system that is recognized internationally. Russia’s sustained growth in international standing is a result of continuous reforms and improvements and the building of a robust national assessment system. All these reforms to the education sector were supported by the attention and financial support of the government. However, the trends in education sector development appear worrying and call for the revision of policy priorities. This report focuses on the recession and growth of Russia under the shadow of pandemic with special focus on education as of July 2020. -
Publication
Russia Economic Report, No. 42, December 2019: Weaker Global Outlook Sharpens Focus on Domestic Reforms
(World Bank, Moscow, 2019-12)After a weak performance in the first half of 2019, helped by monetary easing, faster public spending and some one-off effects, economic growth in Russia picked up in the third quarter at 1.7 percent, y/y. Consequently, our 2019 forecast has been revised upwards to 1.2 percent (from its previous reading of 1 percent). Globally, growth has weakened substantially in 2019, reflecting a broad-based slowdown in industrial activity and global trade. Slowing external demand and the OPEC agreement weighed on Russia's exports performance. Crude oil prices fell 14 percent in January-September 2019, y/y, reflecting a downturn in the world economy. -
Publication
Towards More Effective Social Assistance in Russia: An Update of the System Performance Considering New National Target of Halving Poverty by 2024
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-24)This report updates the assessment of the performance of the social protection (SP) system in Russia, using the 2014-2017 rounds of the Survey on Incomes and the Participation in Social Programs (VNDN in Russian) by the State Statistic Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat), the largest household annual monitoring survey in Russia, and the main source of official data on poverty. The 2017 VNDN Survey round has a sample (about 150,000 households) that is 3 times larger than its standard sample size and it allows for a comprehensive assessment of the SP system performance both at the national and the regional levels. The context for the update is the 2018 May Decree by the President of Russia5, which defined the new strategic goals for socio-economic development and poverty alleviation in Russia. The Decree put human development and poverty reduction at the center of the Russia’s development strategy over the medium term. To achieve the May decree goals by 2024, the Government developed 12 National Projects, particularly in health, support to families and education, and allocated significant resources for their implementation. The national goals include halving poverty, increasing the quality of education and improving health status to extend longevity and economically active life. For social protection, the objectives pertain to higher efficiency and effectiveness, greater share of resources directed to families in need of assistance, better performance results and stronger alignment with human development goals. More recently, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection launched a series of regional pilots to inform decisionmakers on good practice examples in implementing the reform in the regions. This update is intended to feed into this on-going process, enabling the World Bank team to continue to support the Government of the Russian Federation in its efforts to improve efficacy of its social assistance system. Through the RAS project, the social assistance team of the World Bank has established itself as credible source of robust analysis and solid technical advice. -
Publication
Russia Economic Report, No. 41, June 2019: Modest Growth - Focus on Informality
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06)Real GDP growth in Russia surpassed expectations in 2018, reaching 2.3 percent, mostly due to one off effects of energy construction. Forecasted growth of 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 reflects a more modest outlook. Russia’s macro-fiscal buffers remain strong, with fiscal surpluses across all tiers of government and low public-debt levels. When compared to advanced economies, Russia spends less on health and education. Rebalancing in favor of these categories could improve the overall efficiency of public spending. Short-term inflationary risks have abated, with the Bank of Russia signaling a return to a neutral policy rate. Lending activity is recovering, but the banking sector remains afflicted with high concentration and state dominance. Having eased slightly, the poverty rate remains in double digits with many households close to the poverty line and lacking formal employment. Informal employment is rising in the face of close-to-zero net job creation by medium-sized and large formal enterprises. Key risks to medium-term growth include the expansion of economic sanctions, renewed financial turmoil in EMDEs, a dramatic drop in oil prices, and souring of the global trade environment. The recent double-digit expansion in household credit may also pose a risk to financial stability in the case of a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. -
Publication
Armenia: Better Understanding International Labor Mobility
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06)Armenia has experienced massive outflows of its people over years. Emigrants’ share of the Armenian population stood at approximately thirty-two percent in 2017, according to migration data from the United Nations (UN). Half of Armenian emigrants reside in Russia. Other key destinations include Azerbaijan, the United States and Ukraine. Recent migration is primarily temporary labor migration, unlike the permanent emigration that occurred in the 1990s. Remittances resulting from migration constitute important support to the welfare of households and the domestic economy. Nevertheless, the effects of remittances and migration on labor markets are not fully understood. As migration is likely to continue, such questions are still timely and relevant. The Russian-Armenian University (RAU) survey data indicate that about as many people would like to migrate as are current first-time migrants. This policy brief aims to explore and address the two questions about migration and its effects on the labor market in Armenia. It uses data from the household migration surveys conducted by the RAU over the three-year period of 2015-2017. The brief describes the general landscape of temporary labor migration and presents relevant policy recommendations. -
Publication
Russia Economic Report, November 2018: Preserving Stability, Doubling Growth, Halving Poverty – How?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11)Global growth is broadly stable but downside risks from rising trade tensions are increasing.A weakening recovery in trade and manufacturing activities is weighing down global growth. Global goods trade has decelerated more rapidly than expected. U.S. tariff s and the retaliatoryresponses of its trading partners have affected 2.5 percent of global goods imports. Surveys ofcompanies in the U.S., China and Japan suggest that the risks of a trade war have not yet fullymaterialized. While the Eurasian Union (excluding Russia) posted strong growth in 2018, Russia'smain trading partners – the Euro area and China – experienced a growth slowdown. Financial conditions for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are tightening. Divergent monetary policies and growth prospects among the U.S. and other major economies contributed to a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar in 2018. This, together with intensifying trade tensions, deteriorating growth prospects and renewed attention to external vulnerabilities has contributed to significant depreciations and capital outflows in many EMDEs. EMDE currencies fell – including the Russian ruble – and cumulative portfolio outflows from EMDEs surpassed those seen after the 2013 taper tantrum. Economies with external vulnerabilities, including Argentina, Indonesia, and Turkey, experienced the sharpest currency depreciations. While the spillover from those countries has been limited, the intensification of turmoil could lead investors to reevaluate their exposure to EMDEs and to capital outflows.