Sector/Thematic Studies

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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Myanmar Economic Monitor, July 2021: Progress Threatened; Resilience Tested

(World Bank, Myanmar, 2021-07) World Bank

In February 2021 the military assumed power in Myanmar, setting back the country’s democratic transition, and immediately impacting an economy that had already been weakened by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While the initial economic impacts of the coup were extremely severe, in May and June there were early signs that constraints were easing in some areas. Mobility at retail and transport venues improved after the Thingyan holiday in April, and there were reports that factory workers, bank staff, and some public servants had returned to work. Several international apparel buyers resumed placing new orders with garment manufacturers, and logistics bottlenecks eased. Amid substantial uncertainty around the magnitude and duration of recent economic shocks, there are large risks associated with these projections. Relatively severe economic impacts already appear to have persisted for longer than what was assumed even in March, when the authors projected a 10 percent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY21. The third wave of COVID-19 will have substantial additional economic impacts in the September quarter, although the magnitude of these impacts will depend on how the outbreak evolves. Since February the environment for doing business has worsened considerably, impacting productivity across the economy as scarce resources are allocated toward dealing with supply-side constraints. Lost months of education at school and university are of critical concern, including because of the longer-term implications for the accumulation of human capital and productive capacity. With these fundamental drivers of long-term growth at risk, there are already early signs of increased dependence on extractive and or illicit activities, and a return to the inward-looking policies that have characterized much of Myanmar’s history.
Myanmar Economic Monitor, December 2020: Coping with COVID-19

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) World Bank

The second wave of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has amplified Myanmar’s public health and economic challenges. Domestic cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19) have risen rapidly in recent months. The pandemic and the associated containment measures have weakened consumption and investment, and disrupted businesses’ operations and the supply of labor and inputs. While the global economy has begun to rebound following a gradual relaxation of lockdown measures, the continued spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in several parts of the world is weighing on the nascent recovery. This report focuses on the Myanmar's economic impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on firms, poverty and human capital as of December 2020.
Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2020: Myanmar in the Time of COVID-19

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-26) World Bank

The Covid-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has interrupted Myanmar’s economic expansion, and while Myanmar is expected to narrowly escape a recession, helped by a strong start to the fiscal year, policy responses, and the limited disease outbreak, the growth recovery is at great risk. Myanmar’s GDP growth is estimated to drop from 6.8 percent in FY2018/19 to 0.5 percent in FY2019/20. Following strong activity in the first five months of the year, the pandemic and associated containment measures are undermining aggregate demand, disrupting value chains, and reducing the labor supply. The crisis has had an especially negative effect on wholesale and retail trade, tourism-related services, manufacturing, and construction, though weakening consumer demand is also projected to ease inflationary pressures in FY2019/20. Under the baseline scenario, Myanmar’s GDP growth rate is projected to rise to 7.2 percent in the medium term, assuming that the domestic spread of the virus is brought under control, the impacts of the government’s small but targeted Covid-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) materialize, and the global economy recovers. The anticipated recovery will be supported by rising investment in infrastructure and services, rebounding exports, and increased private consumption. However, risks to this year’s growth estimate and the outlook are tilted heavily to the downside, as the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic could delay the resumption of economic activity. In all scenarios, severe damage to the operation of firms and the welfare of households is expected to pose serious risks to Myanmar’s remarkable progress on poverty reduction.
Myanmar Country Forest Note

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06) World Bank

Myanmar’s rich tropical forests have historically sustained a sizeable timber industry serving domestic and international markets. Rates of timber extraction rose significantly after 1990, peaking between 2010 and 2015, when controls over forests were weak. Much of the remaining forest estate in government reserves, including areas transferred for community forestry, is now degraded or encroached, and illicit timber harvesting continues, despite a ban on unprocessed log exports and other recent control measures. Ongoing sector reforms and strong government commitments under the Myanmar Restoration and Rehabilitation Program provide a sound basis for moving away from an extractive and inefficient timber industry to a more inclusive and integrated model of forest landscape restoration with greater community ownership and private sector engagement, to ensure that Myanmar’s forests continue to provide sustainable economic, social, and environmental benefits. This requires more diverse management approaches and the collaboration with partners who can expand forest management capacity and coverage, including commercial plantations, community forestry, and engagement with ethnic groups who aspire recognition of rights to forest under customary tenure. It also requires new sources of finance. This Country Forest Note (CFN) summarizes the status of Myanmar’s forests and the investments and policies relevant to the forest sector. It aims to inform a strategic, programmatic approach for the management of forests, built on an understanding of the cross-sectoral challenges that the sector faces. It builds on the Forest Sector Report of the Country Environmental Analysis by filing gaps in data and knowledge, including from new studies on private sector plantations, woodfuel, and forest tenure. The CFN takes a uniquely cross-sectoral perspective that considers how other sectors impact forests, and vice versa, and where opportunities lie for better cross-sectoral coordination.
Labor Mobility as a Jobs Strategy for Myanmar: Strengthening Active Labor Market Policies to Enhance the Benefits of Mobility

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020) Testaverde, Mauro ; Moroz, Harry ; Dutta, Puja

The government of Myanmar is committed to creating new and better jobs, including for migrant workers. In 2018, they introduced the Myanmar sustainable development plan (2018-2030), a national strategy to inform policies and institutions that drive inclusive and transformational economic growth. Goal 3 of that plan focuses on job creation and private sector-led growth, and it includes separate strategies for job creation in rural areas, in industry and services, and in small and medium enterprises (SMEs); another part of goal 3 addresses the need to improve the enabling environment for investment. Protecting the rights and harnessing the benefits of work, including for migrant workers, is likewise addressed in the government’s plan. The ministry of labor, immigration, and population also released two national plans of action that highlight the importance of migration for Myanmar and the need to improve its management.
Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2019: Building Reform Momentum

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) World Bank

Myanmar's economy is slowly picking up speed and regaining stability after a volatile 2018. Despite a challenging global environment, Myanmar's economic growth is expected to rise to 6.5 percent in 2018/19 from 6.4 percent in the Transition Period1 supported by strong performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. Volatility that buffeted the economy in 2018 has started to ease. Inflation moderated, the kyat stabilized, and fuel prices fell in Q1 2018/19, though there have been some reversals in prices in Q2. The economic outlook looks positive, with growth expected to reach 6.7 percent in the medium-term. The recent decisions to ease trade restrictions; open the financial sector to greater foreign competition; and begin mega infrastructure projects signal a decisive and awaited uptick in reform momentum. Downside risks to the economic outlook are driven by external factors, including possible revocation of preferential trade access under the European Union Generalized System of Preferences. Slowing global and regional growth, especially in China, together with renewed escalation of global trade tensions, could also slow exports and the flow of inbound foreign investments. Insecurity in border areas, the Rakhine crisis, with violence and forced displacement of refugees, and the recent flare-up in violence involving the Arakan Army, could affect investors' sentiment. The 2020 general election is also a source of uncertainty.
Meandering to Recovery: Post-Nargis Social Impacts Monitoring Ten Years After

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018) Kostner, Markus ; Han, Min Min ; Pursch, Samuel

On May 2, 2008, Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady Delta and swept across the region toward Yangon. By the time the storm had passed, it had killed over 140,000 people, tearing apart families, destroying homes, and shattering livelihoods. In the months and years following Nargis,communities, supported by the national and international aid community, worked to rebuild their lives and repair the devastation that the cyclone had caused. Homes were rebuilt, paddy field walls repaired, and new fishing boats purchased. However, even as the process of recovery inched forward, villagers have had to contend with new and diverse shocks and changes that have both enabled and slowed their efforts to rebuild. Among others, climate change has led to unpredictable weather, hampering livelihoods, while the migration boom to Yangon and elsewhere has provided economic opportunity even as it has altered the local social fabric. These more recent issues have had a complex inter-relationship with changes wrought by Nargis. As time has passed, they have become the primary concern of most villages studied by the social impacts monitoring (SIM) research. But the long-term effects of Nargis remain visible, combining with newer issues to create new challenges,exacerbate old problems, and, in some cases, even hasten the recovery process. By focusing on a panel of 40 Nargis-affected villages across time, five rounds of SIM have been able to track how village life has changed both post-Nargis and, in more recent years, as villagers faced both new challenges and continued recovery from Nargis. This fifth round of SIM (SIM 5) provides a snapshot of village economic and social life in 2017 and analyzes change over more than nine years since Nargis. It assesses three main areas: (i) This focus area examines the conditions of livelihoods and the local socioeconomy in the context of Nargis’ destruction and the evolving context of the rural economy across Myanmar over the past five years. It looks at the three main livelihood groups (farmers, fishers, and landless laborers) and at key issues such as debt, land, and housing and local infrastructure; (ii) This area assesses how communities have dealt with both the long-term social upheaval caused by Nargis and the more recent (but no less dramatic) changes that have accompanied Myanmar’s political and economic transition; (iii) New to this round of SIM, the final analytical focus area identifies what recovery and resilience mean for households and communities in the Ayeyarwady Delta, what factors are most important in the recovery process and in building resilience, and to what extent villagers have had and have the capacity to develop both; SIM 5 placed particular emphasis on understanding change over time, both since 2013 (when the SIM 4 research was conducted) and prior to Cyclone Nargis. As much as possible, SIM 5 draws causal links between exogenous events (such as cyclones, other natural disasters, political change, and national economic development) and household and community actions.
Myanmar Economic Monitor, October 2017: Capitalizing on Investment Opportunities

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-10) World Bank Group

Myanmar’s macroeconomic environment remains stable, though economic growth is estimated to have slowed to 5.9 percent in 2016-17 compared to 7 percent in 2015-16, weighed down by slower investment demand. Growth is projected to recover to 6.4 percent in 2017-18, though risks are tilted to the downside due to the recent escalation of tensions in Rakhine State and the potential stalling of the overall reform agenda. Baseline projections assume that the authorities will move to a medium-term economic reform program to sustain hard earned macroeconomic stability gains and accelerate inclusive growth. Accelerating much needed investments in the economy will also require progress on structural reforms in, among other areas, finance, energy, and business regulations. On access to finance, implementation of the recently adopted prudential regulations under the Financial Institutions Law are expected to support financial sector stability and to manage risks. The banking community however has sought more time to comply with the new regulations because current deadlines might put pressure on the financial system. Progress on reform of State Owned Banks is expected over the coming months starting with international audits. At the same time, steps to develop a secured transaction framework and credit bureau licensing should help to improve access to finance and credit quality. On access to electricity, priorities include finalizing the power sector master plan and associated decisions on dealing with gas supply shortages, electricity tariff adjustments with protection for vulnerable groups, and institutional reforms (e.g. establishment of regulatory agency). On business regulations, priorities include implementation of the 2016 investment law, adoption of the companies act, and aligning customs procedures in valuation of goods with international practices.
Leveraging the Rice Value Chain for Poverty Reduction in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05-25) World Bank Group

Rice is an important agricultural product and food staple in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), especially for its three low-income members – Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar. These countries are net exporters of rice, similar to their more advanced neighbors, Thailand and Vietnam, but their rice sector potential is still largely underutilized. They adopt slightly different approaches to rice sector development in terms of the role of the private sector, openness to foreign direct investments (FDI), and commitment to open trade, yet they all aim to remain competitive on export markets and to leverage this competitiveness for poverty reduction and boosted shared prosperity, while achieving other development outcomes such as better nutrition, climate-smart agriculture, and job creation. Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar are the ‘target countries’ of this report, while Thailand and Vietnam are the peers used for comparison and experience-sharing throughout the report. This report presents a summary of main findings, lessons learned, and policy recommendations from these workshops. The spectrum of discussions was broad, depending on the interest of each country to learn specific experiences from other countries or from the region and the world. Most workshops brought together private and public sector representatives to facilitate open dialogue and better integrate private sector objectives into agricultural strategies and policies.
A Country on the Move: Domestic Migration in Two Regions of Myanmar

(World Bank, Yangon, 2016) World Bank Group

In the last four years Myanmar’s economy has seen a slight shift away from agriculture toward industry and services. This may mark the beginning of a structural transformation away from a rural, agricultural economy toward a more urban, industrial and service-based economy. Urbanization and job creation in urban areas have the potential to have a significant impact on labor and mobility patterns, especially for the landless and land-poor workers that account for a large part of the rural workforce. Domestic migration has been a critical component of the way many other countries in the region, including South Korea, China, and Vietnam, have managed to reduce poverty and support resilient livelihoods. However, pursuing these opportunities often entails significant risk for poor migrant households, who often have little capacity to absorb the shocks of failed migration attempts. Developing access to a knowledge base that enables them to manage risk more easily and make more informed choices around migration is critical to supporting their livelihoods. Migration flows can also have long-term social and economic consequences in rural areas as members of the labor force, particularly young people, move into cities and towns. This entails major public policy choices around areas such as spatial development, urbanization, service delivery, and poverty reduction. The government will need information on anticipated migrant flows in order to make the right policy choices and to plan for and provide services to people arriving from rural areas into urban settings. Within this evolving context, understanding the motivations, patterns, and dynamics of existing migration practices is critical in order to assist balanced and inclusive development in Myanmar by supporting safe and informed migration. The primary objective of this study is to collect detailed evidence and provide an objective assessment of how, and to what extent, migration within and from particular regions of Myanmar affects the livelihoods of rural households and the social and economic environment of villages. It seeks to understand how migration decisions take place, the key obstacles and risks faced by migrants, and the individual and household strategies that evolve to manage them. It also seeks to capture broader changes over time in sending communities, and how the departure and return of migrants affects social and economic dynamics at home and within the village. The study focuses on the Ayeyarwady Region and the Magway Region of Myanmar, which are home to large numbers of Myanmar’s rural poor and are also close to two of the major centers of growth and job creation in the country, Yangon and Mandalay respectively. In these areas, the study applies a mixed-methods approach to the four key questions outlined.