Sector/Thematic Studies

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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Liberia Economic Update: Investing in Human Capital for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) World Bank Group
This is the third edition of the Liberia Economic Update (LEU), a series of annual reports that assesses recent economic developments in Liberia and assists the government and its development partners in identifying emerging issues and addressing persistent challenges. It presents a broad overview of Liberia’s macroeconomic context, assesses the macro-fiscal and growth outlook over the short and medium terms, and sheds light on the state of human capital in Liberia. The rebound in global and domestic activity and higher prices of Liberia’s main exports helped improve the country’s economic performance in 2021. The government’s fiscal position improved in 2021 due to strong revenue growth and tight expenditure management. The appreciation of the Liberian dollar, coupled with prudent fiscal and monetary policies, helped stem inflation in 2021. Liberia’s current account deficit widened despite stronger export growth. As domestic activity picked up, increased exports were offset by the surge in imports. Liberia’s medium-term outlook is positive but subject to significant downside risks and uncertainties. The positive outlook is underpinned by significant tailwinds for mining, the government’s planned scale-up of public investment, and the implementation of structural reforms in key sectors, including agriculture and energy. On the downside, there are risks and uncertainties related to the path of the pandemic at home and abroad, the war in Ukraine, and the upcoming general elections in 2023.
Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-17) World Bank Group
The Palestinian economy has started its recovery in 2021 as COVID-related (coronavirus) measures have been eased, but sustainable sources of growth going forward remain limited. Given the decline in the daily number of new COVID-19 cases, lockdowns have been significantly eased in 2021. This combined with the pickup of the vaccination campaign allowed consumer confidence to slowly pick up and business activity to gradually rebound. The economy is estimated to have grown by 5.4 percent, in real terms, in the first half (H1) of 2021, year-on-year. The improved economic performance was fully driven by the West Bank economy while Gaza’s economy remained almost stagnant in H1 2021 due to the 11-day conflict in May. Growth is expected to further pick up throughout the remainder of the year and reach 6 percent in 2021 as the West Bank economy continues to regain more of what was lost during 2020 and with the implementation of some Israeli confidence building measures supporting economic activity and facilitating reconstruction in Gaza. In the following years, growth is expected to hover around 3 percent as the low base effect weakens and as sources of growth remain limited given the ongoing restrictions on movement, access and trade. Unemployment remained stubbornly high in 2021, mainly driven by Gaza. The unemployment rate in the Palestinian territories reached 26.4 percent in the second quarter of 2021: 16.9 percent in the West Bank and 44.7 percent in Gaza, reflecting the particularly difficult economic situation in the Strip due to the effect of the 11-day conflict and the ongoing restrictions. The extremely high unemployment rate in Gaza comes hand-in-hand with deteriorating social conditions in the Strip. Estimates by the World Bank indicate that the recent conflict has pushed poverty in Gaza to 59.3 percent in 2021 (using 5.50 US Dollars a day (2011 PPP) international poverty line). This is 2.3 percentage points higher than the COVID-19 induced peak in 2020, and a 16.3 percentage point increase above the 2016-2017 values (latest available official data).
Russia Economic Report, No. 45, May 2021: Russia’s Economic Recovery Gathers Pace
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05-25) World Bank Group
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt activity across the world, casting wide uncertainty around GDP projections. Despite the protracted and uncertain nature of the pandemic, global GDP growth is forecast to recover to 4 percent in 2021 and to moderate to 3.8 percent in 2022 under baseline assumptions established in January 2021. The baseline recovery, however, is not sufficient to return global output to pre-pandemic projections by 2022, with levels expected to be 4.4 percent below pre-pandemic projections next year. COVID-19 has reversed hard-won gains in poverty reduction, with the pandemic expected to push over 100 million people into extreme poverty by the end of 2021. Accompanying the rise in extreme poverty is that of food insecurity, especially in light of the steep falls in household incomes due to widespread job losses – many of which are not anticipated to be regained this year. The pandemic is expected to have longer-term scarring effects on productivity growth and potential output, as the erosion of business confidence further weakens investment and as human capital accumulation slows due to a deterioration in health outcomes, extended school closures, and prolonged unemployment. Global trade continues to recover, but with wide variations across countries and sectors. Global financing conditions remain accommodative amid ongoing vaccination drives in major economies.
Nepal Development Update, April 2021: Harnessing Export Potential for a Green, Inclusive, and Resilient Recovery
(World Bank, Kathmandu, 2021-04-11) World Bank Group
Nepal has been hit hard by COVID-19, although the situation has improved more recently. As the outbreak became widespread in mid-2020, a nationwide lockdown was implemented from March to July in 2020, followed by localized lockdowns, including in the Kathmandu Valley up until mid-September. During this time transportation, education and tourism-related activities were significantly restricted. Since October, the number of cases has been declining steadily, allowing a gradual easing of movement restrictions. Nepal launched its vaccination program on January 27, 2021, and about 5.9 percent of the population (or 1,791,606 people) were inoculated by mid-March 2021. Thus, there are good prospects that further outbreaks of COVID-19 can be contained. After contracting for the first time in 40 years in FY20 - by 1.9 percent - the economy showed signs of moderate recovery in the first half of FY21. Activity resumed in wholesale and retail trade, transport, and financial services, while favorable monsoons drove robust agricultural growth. However, tourism remained at a standstill and private investment anemic given high levels of overall uncertainty related to the epidemic as well as political developments. Uncertainty arising from the epidemic has also contributed to fiscal risks due to the degree of fiscal stimulus provided to support individuals and firms and which will need to eventually be rolled back for fiscal sustainability. Political uncertainty also heightened in December 2020 when the Prime Minister dissolved Parliament. The Supreme Court overturned the decision, reinstating Parliament in February 2021 and precipitating the split of the two-party majority coalition in March.
Turkish Cypriot Economy, March 2021: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic – A Path to Building Back Better
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03) World Bank Group
The special topic of this edition of the Macroeconomic Monitoring report focuses on the TC administration’s ‘public’ financial support to the agriculture sector. Due to the Turkish lira depreciation, the recent adverse climate conditions, and exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis, the agriculture sector suffered significantly in 2020. However, the severe impact on the sector was also the result of several long-standing inefficiencies and low productivity. Financial support from the central budget for agriculture comes at a significant fiscal cost to the overall TC economy, while at the same time agricultural productivity has been stagnating. The COVID-19 pandemic has served to exacerbate these existing challenges through disruptions along the food value chain. These problems have affected small-sized farmers the most, given that they are the most vulnerable to income shocks and higher retail prices. Reforming the subsidy system for agriculture could help generate greater fiscal space in the medium term, and also help foster economic diversification and enhance productivity.
Thailand Economic Monitor, January 2021: Restoring Incomes, Recovering Jobs
(World Bank, Bangkok, 2021-01) World Bank Group
The Thailand Economic Monitor (TEM) reports on key developments in Thailand’s economy over the past six months, situates these changes in the context of global trends and Thailand’s longer-term economic trajectory, and updates Thailand’s economic and social welfare outlook. Each edition of the TEM also provides an in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues and an analysis of Thailand’s medium-term development challenges. The TEM is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial-market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Thailand’s evolving economy.
Algeria Economic Monitor, Fall 2020: Navigating the COVID-19 Pandemic, Engaging Structural Reforms
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11) World Bank Group
This report presents an overview of Algeria’s recent macroeconomic developments and of its short-term economic outlook. The report is divided into two chapters. Chapter one presents the country’s macroeconomic developments in 2019, which establishes the context for the unprecedented developments of 2020 related to the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Chapter two details the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and concurrent crash in oil prices on various dimensions of Algeria’s economic fabric. Finally, the conclusion presents the short-term outlook for the Algerian economy.
Beirut Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-31) World Bank Group; European Union; United Nations
On August 4, 2020, a massive explosion rocked the Port of Beirut (PoB), destroying much ofthe port and severely damaging dense residential and commercial areas within five kilometersof the site of the explosion. The disaster left more than 200 people dead, thousands injured, andmany homeless. Shocking pictures and videos from the Lebanese capital were shared widely acrossthe planet, showing a city in ruins and the suffering of those affected. Beyond the human tragedy, the economic impact of the explosion is notable at the national level despite the geographic concentration of the destruction. This reflects: (i) the demographic clustering of the Lebanese population in Beirut and its suburbs; (ii) the prominence of economic activity in the affected areas, especially in regard to commerce, real estate and tourism; and (iii) the fact that the PoB is the main point of entry/exit for the small open economy, channeling 68 percent (2011-2018 average) of the country’s total external trade. Even prior to the explosion, Lebanon was already reeling from multiple crises since 2011. These included: (i) spillovers from the conflict in Syria, which led Lebanon to host the largest refugee per capita population in the world; (ii) a financial and economic crisis that has induced systemic macrofinancial failures, including, impairment of the banking sector and risk of deposits; an exchange rate collapse; a default on sovereign debt; triple digit inflation rates; and a severe economic contraction; and (iii) impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic; Lebanon, not unlike other countries, responded with lockdowns that further exacerbated economic and financial stresses. The above add to long-term structural vulnerabilities that include low-grade infrastructure—a dysfunctional electricity sector, water supply shortages, inadequate solid waste and wastewater management—public financial mismanagement, large macroeconomic imbalances, and deteriorating social indicators. These vulnerabilities are taking place against the backdrop of high levels of corruption, political turmoil, and weak governance. Internationally, Lebanon was sub-optimally integrated into the global economy and global value chains, and the sizeable and persistent migration of highly educated human resources to foreign labor markets (brain drain) further contributed to poor productivity. As a result, the economy has struggled to reduce poverty and to generate inclusive growth, with job creation remaining weak and poorly distributed even during periods of high GDP growth. The long-run employment-growth elasticity is estimated to be 0.2,2 much lower than an estimated MENA average of 0.5.3 Meanwhile, the generated employment has been concentrated in low productivity activities as those involving higher productivity have not grown proportionally. Since foreign labor dominated low skilled (less productive) activities, high GDP growth rates have not translated into significant job creation for the Lebanese.
Papua New Guinea Economic Update, July 2020: In the Time of COVID-19 - From Relief to Recovery
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) World Bank Group
Papua New Guinea’s economy has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis due to weaker demand and less favorable terms of trade. Pandemic-related global and national movement restrictions have weakened external and domestic demand and affected commodity prices, which will lead to an economic contraction, wider financing gaps in the external and fiscal accounts, and higher unemployment and poverty than previously anticipated in 2020. The authorities reacted swiftly to the emerging external shock by developing a package of emergency health and economic relief measures. While the focus of the authorities is currently on crisis mitigation measures, they should also look beyond the current year at a more robust and resilient recovery over the medium term. In addition to the economic analysis, the report contains additional sections dedicated to physical infrastructure development in PNG. The infrastructure section suggests that the provision of more equitable access to quality infrastructure will be crucial once the country moves to the recovery and resilience phase of COVID-19 response. While improving the quality of infrastructure in PNG faces serious constraints, the country’s abundance of natural resources is a potential source for financing the work and government’s stated vision and strategy can provide necessary policy guidance.
Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-02) World Bank Group
The report reviews recent economic developments in the real, fiscal and banking sectors, while providing a near-term outlook that highlights critical challenges facing the Palestinian economy. Additionally, it looks at the opportunities and constraints facing digital infrastructure in the Palestinian territories, the development of which is critical to the future expansion of the digital economy. It makes short- and long-term recommendations that would allow more digital activity and job creation. This report assesses the status of the World Bank recommendations to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee meeting over the years and identifies recent legal and regulatory advancements by the Palestinian Authority in the telecommunications sector.