Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 93

Managing Environmental and Social Risks in Resilient Housing Projects

(Washington, DC, 2022-03) World Bank

Resilient Housing (RH) initiatives are a crucial means of improving access to safe and sanitary housing in urban areas of high vulnerability. These projects make residents safer, healthier, and more secure, and increase the economic inclusion of the world’s poorest populations. They upgrade homes, improve neighborhoods, and change lives. Like all investment projects, RH initiatives carry with them some risks and may impact the lives of community members in the project area. The note briefly introduces RH initiatives, describes their unique approach to project design, and touches on the possible risks occasioned by RH projects. It then explores the many ways in which RH initiatives closely align with the objectives and technical requirements embedded in the World Bank’s Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), which went into effect on October 1, 2018. The ESF lays out a comprehensive approach to identifying and managing environmental and social risks and minimizing potential impacts. The goals and requirements of RH initiatives and the ESF complement one another, and this note will describe how this mutually supportive relationship creates desirable outcomes that achieve the objectives of both, despite occasional trade-offs. Using recent operational experience as a guide to best practices, the note’s final section provides recommendations for Task Team Leaders responsible for managing RH projects on how to apply the ESF to their projects to minimize risk and maximize project impact.
South Sudan Economic Monitor, February 2022: Towards a Jobs Agenda

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-02-16) World Bank

South Sudan faced significant headwinds in FY2020/21, with the pandemic, floods, and violence flareups affecting economic activities. Consequently, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 5.4 percent in FY2020/21. Oil production declined by 5.9 percent as floods affected production and the COVID-19 pandemic delayed new investments to replace exhausted wells. In the agriculture sector, flooding precipitated estimated losses of 38,000 tons of cereals (4.3% of 2020 production) and 800,000 livestock according to FAO estimates. The overall cereal deficit was projected to reach 465,610 metric tons in 2021, equivalent to about 35 percent of the overall food requirement for the year, sustaining high levels of food insecurity. Living conditions continue to be impacted by violence, displacement, and inadequate access to basic services. With improving macroeconomic conditions supported by an ongoing macro-fiscal reform program, a modest growth rebound of 1.2 percent is projected in FY2021/22. Nevertheless, poverty levels are expected to remain exceptionally high. As the economy recovers from multiple shocks, a focus on policy options to stimulate the creation of a sufficient number of quality jobs to absorb a young and expanding labor force should take center stage. Economies that create jobs, particularly for the youth, are generally more stable and can elevate public confidence in the Government’s capacity to deliver. In South Sudan, an effective jobs support program would invest in immediate livelihood support, the recovery of modest business activities, and the revival of markets.
Social Cohesion and Forced Displacement: A Synthesis of New Research

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022) World Bank

This report presents new evidence from 26 background studies on forced displacement and social cohesion to expand the current knowledge base on how to prevent social conflict and promote social cohesion in forced displacement contexts. The background studies are geographically and methodologically diverse. They examine social cohesion in a variety of low-, middle-, and high-income countries across Africa, Asia, Central, and South America, and Europe. Building on this new evidence, the report provides lessons on how development investments and policies can reduce inequalities, alleviate social tensions, and promote social cohesion between and within displaced populations and host communities. Overall, the findings demonstrate that, while displacement can exacerbate existing inequalities and create new inequalities and the potential for conflict, especially in areas with strained services and limited economic opportunities, inclusive policies and development investments can effectively mitigate the negative effects of displacement and promote social cohesion.
How COVID-19 Continues to Affect Lives of Refugees in Kenya: Rapid Response Phone Survey Rounds 1 to 5

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-16) Pape, Utz ; Delius, Antonia

Understanding the socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on refugees is important to inform targeted policy responses. The arrival of COVID-19 disrupted lives across all countries and communities, creating unprecedented challenges for the world. As of August 2021, there have been more than 200,000 cases in Kenya, with more than 4,000 deaths. In response, the Government of Kenya (GoK) has imposed a range of restrictions to curb the spread of the pandemic. However, this has inadvertently resulted in socioeconomic effects on the population in Kenya, including those in refugee settlements. Data from the Rapid Response Phone Surveys (RRPS) will be essential in providing information to monitor and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. For refugee and surrounding host communities, which span the humanitarian development nexus, this type of data is particularly important as comparatively there is the least data globally for these populations have. The Kenya COVID-19 RRPS aims to fill socioeconomic data gaps by providing evidence to inform targeted policy and programmatic response. With face-to-face data collection no longer a feasible option due to high infection rates and government restrictions, phone surveys emerged as an alternative for rapid and frequent data collection. The World Bank in collaboration with the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, are implementing Rapid Response Phone Surveys for (i) Kenyan and refugee households, (ii) micro-enterprises run by young entrepreneurs, and (iii) formal enterprises. This note provides findings and makes policy recommendations based on five waves of data collection for Kenyan and refugee households. The RRPS data is unique as it allows to draw a picture of the socioeconomic situation of all major refugee groups in Kenya during the COVID-19 pandemic, covering camp and urban refugees as well as stateless persons in the same as Kenyan nationals. Kenyan nationals residing in urban areas were selected as the comparison group throughout this report, as densely populated areas, such as Kenya’s urban areas and refugee camps, were differently affected by the pandemic and thus this comparison is relatively easily made.
Mind the Gap: How COVID-19 is Increasing Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07) Clavijo, Irene ; Mejía-Mantilla, Carolina ; Olivieri, Sergio ; Lara-Ibarra, Gabriel ; Romero, Javier ; Balch, Oliver

The most vulnerable households in Latin America and the Caribbean have been disproportionately affected by the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, endangering the region’s inclusive development path. High-Frequency Phone Surveys show that two months into the pandemic, in May 2020, the gaps between the most vulnerable and the least vulnerable households in terms of job loss and income loss. The uneven impacts went beyond monetary indicators, as disadvantaged households suffered from higher levels of food insecurity and had lower access to good quality health and education services, such as online sessions with a teacher. To prevent the pandemic from erasing years of progress against inequality, the most vulnerable households require short-term support to overcome their liquidity constraints via safety net transfers, thus guaranteeing that their basic needs are met. In the medium term, government efforts should be focused on the recovery of households’ primary source of income through labor market policies that actively support the placement of the less advantaged groups and improve their employability. Equally important, it is necessary to curb losses related to human capital accumulation, given the long-term consequences that this entails. The return to in-person schooling, under strict bio-security protocols, is encouraged. When not possible, schools and parents should be provided with better tools to support distance learning.
South Sudan Economic Update, June 2021: Pathways to Sustainable Food Security

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06) World Bank

The South Sudan economy is projected to contract by 4.1 percent in FY2020/21, with growth negatively affected by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lower oil production, floods, and increased conflict intensity in parts of the country. With the economic decline in FY2020/21, living conditions have deteriorated, with some 8.3 million estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2021, reflecting an increase of 800,000 in the absolute number of people in need from 2020. At the same time, crisis-level food insecurity persists despite increased agricultural production, with exceptionally high food prices constraining access to food for large segments of population. Consequently, it is estimated that more than half of the population (7.2 million people) are facing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) in the period from April to July 2021. However, the fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to about 2.7 percent of GDP, reflecting higher than projected oil and non-oil revenue and the impact of fiscal consolidation efforts. In addition, the current account deficit is expected to narrow to 7.1 percent of GDP in FY2020/21, from 7.9 percent in FY2019/20, reflecting lower financial transfers to Sudan and lower net outflows of oil-related investments. Beyond FY2020/21, the economy may benefit from higher investments in the oil sector, as well as recovery in the nonoil sectors. Consequently, the economy is expected to recover faster than earlier estimated, with projected growth rates of 2.6 percent in FY2021/22 and 3.0 in FY2022/23. However, this outlook is uncertain and is conditional on peace and stability, commitment to economic and public finance management reforms, improved budgeting and allocation of resources, and stabilization of smallholder agriculture.
Jobs Interrupted: The Effects of COVID-19 in the LAC Labor Markets

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05) Mejia-Mantilla, Carolina ; Olivieri, Sergio ; Rivadeneira, Ana ; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel ; Romero, Javier

Given the importance of labor income in the region, there are several important questions about the effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the labor market. At the outset of the pandemic, 48 percent of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) workers stopped working and 16 percent lost their job. Yet, were job losses similar for all workers? Has the COVID-19 shock exacerbated unfavorable labor market conditions for vulnerable groups over time? What happened to those workers who remained employed throughout the early months of the pandemic? And, what lessons can be drawn from the experience? This note sheds light on these inquiries using household data from the LAC high-frequency phone surveys (HFPS) which were collected between May and August of 2020 from 13 countries in the region.
Algeria Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Accelerating Reforms to Protect the Algerian Economy

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03-31) World Bank

This Algeria Economic Monitor provides an update on key recent economic developments and policies. It places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications these developments and changes in policies have on the outlook for Algeria. This Monitor’s coverageranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Algeria. The report is divided into four chapters. Chapter 1 presents the country’s macroeconomic developments in 2020 and early 2021. Chapter 2 presents the short- to medium-term outlook for the Algerian economy. Chapter 3 details the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequality in Algeria based on evidence across the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Finally, Chapter 4 looks at the key challenges in the country’s health sector as the COVID-19 pandemic eases. The cut-off date for data and forecasting is June 11, 2021.
Mozambique Economic Update, February 2021: Setting the Stage for Recovery

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-02) World Bank

The global pandemic has taken a heavy toll on Mozambique’s economy. In 2020, the country experienced its first economic contraction in nearly three decades. COVID-19 (coronavirus) hit the economy as it was attempting to recover from the slowdown triggered by the hidden debt crisis and the tropical cyclones in 2019. Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 1.3 percent in 2020, compared to a pre-Covid estimate of 4.3 percent, as external demand declined, domestic lockdown measures disrupted supply chains and depressed domestic demand, and liquified natural gas (LNG) investments were delayed. COVID-19 has caused a sudden income loss for enterprises and households, worsening living conditions, especially for the urban poor largely engaged in the informal sector. According to the National Institute of Statistics, as of June 2020, about 120,000 jobs were lost and 63,000 employment contracts suspended, with women being the most affected. Around 3 percent of the firms affected were forced to cease their activity. Services activities are the hardest hit. The tourism and hospitality industries have particularly suffered a steep decline in revenues. COVID-19 has jeopardized years of hard-won development gains, with about one million people estimated to have slipped into poverty in 2020 (as measured by the international poverty line of 1.90 US Dollars per day). While there is great uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, the economy is expected to gradually recover from 2021 as aggregate demand rebounds and LNG investments and extractive production gain momentum. Despite the expected recovery, the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines will be at the core of a resilient recovery. This Economic Update explores the implications of COVID-19 for the economy, businesses and households. It makes recommendations for moving forward—in the short-term relief phase, as well as over the medium and longer term in order to 'build back better'.
Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 in Kenya on Households: Rapid Response Phone Survey, Round 1

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) World Bank

The Kenya COVID-19 pandemic has translated into critical socioeconomic impacts on Kenya’s population, which must be understood to inform timely policy responses. School closures, restrictions on movement, bans on social gatherings, and limitations on economic activities have hit Kenya’s socioeconomic life, creating negative consequences, such as income losses and increased food insecurity, which has been exacerbated by a locust invasion. It is crucial to understand the socioeconomic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and identify the most critically affected populations. Such an understanding can enable evidence-based policies and programmatic responses. However, lack of updated socioeconomic data hinders efforts to efficiently allocate resources, for example, to roll out social assistance programs. Thus, timely and frequent socioeconomic data are needed to develop evidence-based measures and help alleviate the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. The COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS) aims to fill socioeconomic data gaps while providing initial evidence to inform targeted policy and programmatic responses. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, face to-face surveys are no longer feasible due to the risk of infection, as well as mobility restrictions. In contrast, phone surveys are highly suited for rapid and frequent data collection. To assess the impacts of COVID-19 and help inform policy responses in Kenya, the World Bank, in collaboration with the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, are implementing RRPSs for: (i) Kenyan and refugee households, (ii) microenterprises run by young entrepreneurs, and (iii) formal enterprises. This note presents the findings and makes policy recommendations for the first of three data collection rounds of the RRPS for Kenyan households, while providing preliminary findings on the RRPS for refugee households and microenterprises.