Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Climate-Related Shocks and Fiscal Sustainability: Potential Impacts and Policy Options

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-20) World Bank

Real GDP expanded by 17.7 percent in 2022, with per capita incomes surpassing the pre-pandemic levels. On the supply side, accommodation, transport, and commerce explained 60 percent of growth. On the demand side, exports (mainly tourism) and private consumption accounted for growth. The rebound in economic activity in 2022 was accompanied by a reduction in poverty (0.8 percentage points), despite the spike in inflation. Headline inflation reached 7.9 percent (y/y) in December 2022 after inflationary pressures emerged in 2021, fueled by high international oil and food prices and global supply chain disruptions due to the war in Ukraine. Higher food prices and low agricultural production, driven by the five year long drought, intensified food insecurity.
Rwanda Economic Update, February 2023: Making the most of Nature Based Tourism in Rwanda

(Washington, DC, 2023-02) World Bank

The Rwandan economy continued to achieve strong growth in 2022 in the face of weakening external demand and restrictive monetary policies required to control inflation. Rising food prices particularly affected the poor, who devote a large share of their spending to food and appear to have faced higher food inflation than richer households did. Growth is expected to decline somewhat in 2023 and then to recover closer to historical rates over the medium term. Tourism is a major source of Rwanda’s foreign exchange earnings and tends to generate a higher proportion of formal sector jobs than other sectors and could make a substantial contribution to growth. Within tourism, strengthening the provision of nature-based tourism, which accounts for eight percent of leisure and conference visitors in Rwanda would also help protect biodiversity and advance Rwanda’s efforts to adapt to climate change. Nature-based tourism faces significant challenges, including potential limits on expansion of revenues from one of the primary international attractions - gorilla trekking, degradation of the natural assets that underpin the sector, risks presented by infectious diseases, habitat change and overexploitation, and the impact of climate change on tourism demand. Key measures to promote nature-based tourism will need to include expanding the network of protected areas and improving management of the natural assets within and outside protected areas and diversifying the nature-based tourism’s offering while complementing efforts to diversify tourism activities. Efforts are required to enhance revenue sharing mechanisms to increase incentives for local communities to conserve natural assets and unlock new opportunities and community-led enterprises that generate revenue from tourism and sustainable management of natural resources, including forests. This is essential to address poverty, to mitigate poaching threats, other illegal activities, and reduce unsustainable exploitation of resources. It is also imperative to secure private sector participation in financing and operation of facilities by introducing innovative financing methods to secure the necessary investment, strengthening capacity and management of tourism facilities and services, and removing subsidies that contribute to environmental degradation.
Somalia Economic Update, June 2022: Investing in Social Protection to Boost Resilience for Economic Growth

(Washington, DC, 2022-06) World Bank

Somalia is currently experiencing extreme and widespread drought which has been assessed as an unprecedented climatic event not seen in at least 40 years by meteorological agencies and humanitarian partners. After four consecutive seasons of poor rains, 90 percent of the country is experiencing severe drought conditions that include failed crop harvests, widespread water shortages, and decline in livestock production. The drought has intensified the humanitarian crisis and is driving the country into a brink of famine. Significant displacement of people is occurring as they abandoned their homes in search of food, water, and pasture for their livestock. The situation is being exacerbated by the war in Ukraine which has pushed up global food and oil prices. The higher commodity prices are disproportionally affecting the poor and exacerbating inequality. Against this challenging backdrop, the seventh edition of the World Bank’s Somalia Economic Update provides a detailed update of recent economic developments and growth outlook and makes a case for investing in Social Protection to help confront the frequent shocks that buffet the country. Overall, the Economic Update series aims to contribute to policymaking process and stimulate national dialogue on topical issues related to economic recovery and development.
Building a Responsive and Resilient Vocational Education and Training System in Benin

(Washington, DC, 2022-05) World Bank

Benin has embarked on an ambitious reform of rapid expansion of its technical and vocational education training (TVET) sector with the goal, among others, to increase enrollment tenfold by 2030. Investments in the Benin’s human development are important to support the government’s economic growth objectives. A specific area of focus and one that has received support from the very highest levels of government is the focus on skills development and TVET. The government has put in place significant reforms to support this subsector with the aim to increase the skills base of the Beninese workforce and the population more generally, to enhance the coordination and functioning of the sector, to strengthen sectoral and institutional governance, and to improve system efficiency and relevance of programs to the needs of the labor market. The objective of this policy note is to inform the ongoing TVET reforms. The note assesses the effectiveness of the TVET system in Benin and provides policy recommendations for improvements. This policy note also presents a perspective on the plans to rapidly expand the sector, drawing on the experience of other economies including high-growth East Asian countries, and considers global trends, technological advances, climate change, and structural challenges, including the high level of informal employment and gender inequality. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter one presents background information outlining opportunities, challenges, and reforms in the Benin TVET system. Chapter two provides broader analysis of the TVET system in Benin. Chapter three analyzes the recent developments and reforms to system of governance and financing. While chapter four assesses the quality assurance (QA) system in TVET, chapter five summarizes the key reform options and policy recommendations.
More and Better Jobs from Crops and Trees in Mozambique

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11-25) Delgado, Christopher ; Costa, Carlos ; Ricaldi, Federica

This book focuses on entry points for creation of better jobs through agricultural value chains and lays out the policy implications, using cassava, cashew, and plantation forestry as examples. It is based on case studies carried out in 2018-2020 by the World Bank Jobs Group as part of the multi-stakeholder Let’s Work Program in Mozambique. Let’s Work is a global partnership encompassing over 25 private sector organizations, international financial institutions, multilateral development banks, and bilateral donors focused on supporting private sector-led job growth. The study documents opportunities for creating more and better jobs, often in formal employment, linked to the cassava, cashew and plantation forestry value chains. Cassava in Mozambique is currently a traditional subsistence food crop; cashew is a struggling traditional export crop; and plantation forestry is a relatively new sector. However, the study also argues that to realize these opportunities Mozambique requires proactive public policy and investments to overcome significant challenges such as: climate change; over-concentration in current export market destinations; and the unintended side effects of some public policies. The study is focused on promoting an enabling environment for private sector growth in these value chains. It aims to inform ongoing debates about how agriculture and improved natural resource management can contribute more to economic transformation in Mozambique.
The Gambia Economic Update, December 2020: Preserving the Gains

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) World Bank

Real GDP growth exceeded 6 percent during the two years before COVID-19 (coronavirus) struck, supported by rebounding confidence, investment, low interest rates, and growing tourism. Investment accounted for over 22 percent of GDP in 2019, three-fifths of which was private. The tourism market had weathered the collapse of Thomas Cook UK and expanded into new markets. Industry was the fastest-growing sector in 2019, partly due to the issuance of oil-prospecting licenses, but also due to strong investment in construction fueled by remittances from the diaspora. On the other hand, agriculture had contracted, affected by erratic rainfall and the late supply of inputs. Tourism arrivals had started the year in line with 2019 but collapsed by 50 percent in March and are expected to fall by 63 percent in 2020. However, official remittances grew at record pace in the second quarter, perhaps due to travel restrictions closing informal channels. Favorable rainfall, good access to inputs, and few pest outbreaks bode well for agriculture. It registered the lowest fiscal deficit since 2009 and a primary surplus after 2009. This came despite increased expenditure, as revenues rose due to increased excises and levies and improved revenue administration capacity. Both budget and project grants also increased. The Government continues to make large transfers to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), however, the fiscal burden of which is estimated to be around 6 percent of 2019 GDP. Pressures from COVID-19 saw the deficit rise in the first half of 2020 although the tax authorities still managed to exceed their revised collection targets. Tax exemptions, although declining, continue to be sizeable-without discretionary exemptions, the deficit in the first half of 2020 would have been reduced by 0.7 percent of GDP. Non-tax revenue has been boosted by one-off items such as the sale of assets, which partly compensated for the tax decline. The Government initially responded to pandemic-related spending pressures through budgetary reallocation. In July, the National Assembly passed a supplementary bill aimed at providing further relief and stimulating recovery.
Lesotho Policy Notes

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08) World Bank

This policy notes seek to distill key findings from a broad range of World Bank Group engagements in Lesotho, including policy dialogue, analytical work, strategic documents, project lending, and trust funded activities. It builds on discussions with government counterparts, development partners, non-governmental organizations, representatives of the private sector, and other stakeholders. The policy note includes synopses on each topic, highlighting key issues and challenges, and concluding with actionable policy recommendations. It covers a broad range of policy issues but are not intended to be comprehensive or exhaustive. The policy notes start with the overview of the World Bank program and structured under five broad thematic groupings. It begins with key issues and challenges, and unmaterialized opportunities. The first part is reflected in policy measures in both short term and medium to long term.
Tanzania Economic Update, December 2019: Transforming Agriculture - Realizing the Potential of Agriculture for Inclusive Growth and Poverty Reduction

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12) World Bank Group

Tanzania was again one of the top growth performers in the region. Official GDP figures show that growth remained steady in the first half of the year, driven by higher public investment and by a recovery in exports. Inflation has been low and stable, and the balance of payments is quite sound despite a widening current account deficit. Exports are recovering from last year’s contraction. The Government's Tanzania Development Vision 2025 and the Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP II) set out ambitious goals for reducing poverty and sustainably industrializing so that the country can achieve middle-income status by 2025. The government recognizes agriculture as central to realizing its objectives of socioeconomic development, which are well-articulated in the Second Agriculture Sector Development Program (ASDP II). Among the goals of ASDP II are to transform agriculture by promoting commercialization, prioritizing high-potential commodity value chains, and mobilizing capital by giving the formal private sector a growing role in agriculture. Because agriculture and related value chains drive two-thirds of all jobs—three-quarters for the poor— the sector is central to creating more and better jobs at scale and significantly reducing poverty.
Lesotho Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan: Opportunities for Transitioning to More Productive, Climate-Resilient, and Low Carbon Agriculture

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-01) World Bank

Lesotho's agricultural system faces a growing number of climate-related vulnerabilities with droughts, floods, pests, and extreme temperatures occurring more frequently. In response, the Government of Lesotho is collaborating with the World Bank to integrate climate change into the country’s agriculture policy agenda through the Lesotho Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP).
Local Sourcing in the Cabo Verde Tourism Food Supply Chain: Opportunities and Challenges

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10) World Bank Group

The objective of this research report is to assess the market potential for local sourcing in the Cabo Verde tourism food supply chain, with a particular emphasis on traditional sectors such as agriculture and fisheries. As tourism continues to expand rapidly in Cabo Verde, the sector creates a growing market potential for locally sourced produce. The number of inbound tourists in the country has steadily increased from 428,000 in 2011 to 710,000 in 2018 - a 7,5 percent CAGR in the period - causing with it a rise in the direct economic contribution of travel & tourism activities to GDP, now estimated at near 20 percent. The islands of Sal and Boa Vista dominate the market, attracting together 76,4 percent of all arrivals, who visit overwhelmingly under the all-inclusive resort segment. In addition, higher average lengths of stay in these two islands imply that they account for proportionally more room nights (89,9 percent of the total bed nights) than the rest of the country. The level of linkages between the primary sector and tourism has long been a debated topic, particularly the untapped potential of additional positive spillovers and impact on poverty reduction. A World Bank study commissioned in 2013 estimated that more than 80 percent of food and beverage products consumed by all-inclusive resorts were imported. While these resorts have been decisive in pushing infrastructure development and promoting job creation, the level of linkages with local businesses is seen as being below potential. The study found that the low level of local food sourcing stemmed from a range of challenges related to sanitary and quantity standards, volumes, reliability of supply, and connectivity. Since then, very little research has sought to quantify the market potential in supplying tourism or assessing which products could be prioritized at local production level, on comparative and competitive advantages vis-à-vis imports. The methodology for this research comprised a quantitative and qualitative survey with a representative sample of large hotels in Sal and Boa Vista, in addition to in-depth follow-up interviews and desk review of pertinent data. The type of commercially sensitive information required from the surveyed participants severely undermined participation, despite guarantees of confidentiality. A substantial effort was invested in following-up, and the team was able to gather consumption data covering a small representative sample of large hotels, as well as relevant information on market characteristics and trends from the leading hotel supplier wholesalers.