Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Taking Stock, August 2023: Making Public Investment Work for Growth

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-10) World Bank

The latest Taking Stock report shows that Vietnam’s economic growth slowed from 8% in 2022 to 3.7% in the first half of 2023. It forecasts a moderate growth of 4.7% in 2023, gradually accelerating to 5.5% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025. However, the economy faces external and domestic headwinds. Vietnam has ample fiscal space and a proactive fiscal policy supporting short-term demand, removing barriers to the implementation of public investment, and addressing infrastructure constraints can help the economy achieve these targets and promote long-term growth. The report’s special chapter studies Vietnam’s public investment management and how it can contribute to the goal of becoming a high income economy. To harness the power of public investment, the report recommends that Vietnam sustain its level of investment, improve the quality of the proposed project, and address deficiencies in public investment management and inter-governmental fiscal institutions.
No Time to Waste: The Challenges and Opportunities of Cleaner Trade for Vietnam

(World Bank, Hanoi, 2022-01-12) World Bank

The Twenty-sixth United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) was held in early November 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland, at which Vietnam’s Prime Minister, Phạm Minh Chính, pledged once again that Vietnam would be part of the global climate change solution. The country aims to increase the share of clean energy in its total primary energy supply to at least 20 percent by 2030 and 30 percent by 2045 and has pledged to phase out coal-fueled power generation and made a commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Trade can be a central part of the solution to climate change Vietnam is experiencing and will have to deal with in years to come. Green trade or cleaner trade, trade in environmental or environmentally friendly goods can help Vietnam achieve not only its climate commitments but also its development ambition to become a high-income economy by 2045 as set out in the 2021–2030 Social Economic Development Strategy (SEDS). This edition of Taking Stock reviews the recent developments in the Vietnamese economy and discusses the economy’s short- to medium-term prospects, highlighting domestic and external risks associated to the COVID-19 pandemic. The second part of the report elaborates on how Vietnam can harness the impacts of climate change on its trade sector, address challenges and take advantage of new opportunities
Spearheading Vietnam’s Green Agricultural Transformation: Moving to Low-Carbon Rice

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

This report focuses on promoting low-carbon rice production systems in Vietnam. There are many sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the agricultural sector in Vietnam, including along value chains and within the whole agri-food context. However, because rice production is so important to the country and to emission reductions in agriculture, this report focuses on known actions that can be rapidly upscaled, along with other complementary actions to reduce GHG emissions from rice production systems. The report covers emission reduction pathways in rice. This report assesses agronomic and other options that offer technically and economically feasible pathways to promote low-carbon rice. Some options have been piloted in Vietnam and require significant upscaling at the farm-level. This report considers challenges and practical actions and policy reforms to address these challenges for Vietnam’s low-carbon transition (LCT) in rice.
Supporting Resilient Coastal Economies in Vietnam: PART A : Practical Guidance for Assessing the Value of Key Natural Assets in Coastal Areas

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022) World Bank

Inclusive and environmentally sound sustainable development requires managing natural resources that societies depend on for the long term. In the context of marine and coastal resources which provide an important source of income for large numbers of households and revenue for countries, this implies balancing the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of the use of the natural resources in marine and coastal areas. The term “blue economy” is increasingly being used to describe this balanced approach. For coastal countries such as Vietnam, the importance of its marine economy is well known. The country has used the goods and services provided by the natural assets in its near-shore and coastal areas – including fisheries, mangroves, wetlands, lagoons, and sandy beaches – for tourism, production of seafood, and controlling climate events that cause erosion and weathering. This report focuses on adapting guidance for the valuation of key natural assets in coastal areas to Vietnam’s context, considering data availability and the nature of the natural assets in the country. The content of the report was developed following efforts to value natural assets in coastal areas in selected locations in Vietnam with the intention of providing relevant guidance for scaling out such efforts and ensuring they are done in a systematic manner and can inform the implementation of the Marine Strategy to 2030 with a view to 2045.
Climate Risk Country Profile: Vietnam

(World Bank, Washington, DC and Asian Development Bank, Manila, 2021-09-24) World Bank Group ; Asian Development Bank

Vietnam is a Southeast Asian nation with an extensive coastline and diverse but generally warm climate including temperate and tropical regions. Given that a high proportion of the country’s population and economic assets are located in coastal lowlands and deltas and rural areas face issues of poverty and deprivation, Vietnam has been ranked among the five countries likely to be most affected by climate change. This document aims to succinctly summarize the climate risks faced by Vietnam. This includes rapid onset and long- term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities, livelihoods and economies, many of which are already underway. Climate change is a major risk to good development outcomes, and the World Bank Group is committed to playing an important role in helping countries integrate climate action into their core development agendas. The World Bank Group (WBG) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are committed to supporting client countries to invest in and build a low-carbon, climate resilient future, helping them to be better prepared to adapt to current and future climate impacts.
Agricultural Land Use and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Mekong Delta: Alternative Scenarios and Policy Implications

(Washington, DC, 2021) World Bank

The Mekong Delta (MKD) is Vietnam’s most productive agricultural region, and its agroeconomy is well integrated into international markets. Nevertheless, there are increasing threats to the MKD’s agricultural achievements, and other serious questions are emerging about the sustainability of many of the prevailing production systems. Sea level rise, caused by climate change, is increasingly threatening the viability of once protected cropping systems in the coastal areas. This study seeks to contribute to the planning effort for the MKD by addressing some analytical gaps, especially around the technical feasibility and socioeconomic characteristics of alternative agricultural production systems in the context of the evolving natural conditions in the region, and more specifically in the MKD’s three subregions (that is, Upper, Middle, and Coastal). The primary purpose of the study is to fill in that gap by reviewing and assessing different livelihood models and land-use scenarios in the MKD using multi-criteria of technical feasibly, climate change, environmental adaptability, economic and financial, and social aspects to inform the ongoing agricultural transformation in the MKD.
The World Bank NDC Support Facility: Impacts and Lessons Learned Supporting NDC Implementation

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021) World Bank

Climate change and its impacts are accelerating, making it more urgent than ever to transition to low-carbon and resilient economies, as envisioned in the Paris Agreement. Achieving this will require meeting the commitments made by countries in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), significantly increasing ambition as governments update their NDCs in 2020-2021 and beyond. One of the many ways in which the World Bank Group (WBG) is supporting climate action in its client countries is through the NDC Support Facility (NDC-SF). Launched in 2016, the NDC-SF works with developing countries that are members of the NDC Partnership, a global coalition of countries and institutions working to reduce emissions and build resilience by channeling financial and technical resources and promoting cross-sectoral collaboration and the engagement of diverse stakeholders. This paper provides an overview of the NDC-SF’s work over the past three years, identifies key impacts and lessons learned, and describes its way forward.
Taking Stock, December 2020: From COVID-19 to Climate Change - How Vietnam Can Become the Champion of Green Recovery

(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-12-14) World Bank

In these early days of December 2020, most Vietnamese must wear a face mask. The cause is not only the fear of COVID-19 (coronavirus), but also of polluted air which, in the country’s major cities, is four times more polluted than the safety level recommended by international agencies. Regrettably, even if the government has done a superb job containing the biggest and most recent pandemic, Vietnam is vulnerable to many health and environmental disasters. Beyond air pollution, which is killing an estimated 60,000 people every year, the country is exposed to coastal erosion, drought, and saline intrusion and landslide. The recent series of tropical storms in the central region, with over 240 casualties and a quarter million damaged or destroyed homes, has been another painful reminder of this fragility. This edition of the Taking Stock, after describing the recent trends in the Vietnamese economy, asks why Vietnam has not been as effective in dealing with environmental and climate challenges as with the COVID-19 crisis, which are arguably different but have also many similarities. The successful experience in implementing the right measures at the right time during the COVID-19 crisis deserves more attention as it can inspire policymakers in their commitment to address the environmental and climate challenges. First, the successful management of the pandemic has demonstrated (again) that it is better to be ready and to act early and boldly. Second, beyond vision and capacity, the ability to inspire experimentation and innovation is an effective way to change individual and collective behaviors, which is fundamental in the effort to cope with health and climate threats. By all standards, Vietnam has managed the COVID 19 crisis very well. The number of infections and deaths has been minimal, with few community infections since mid-September. Despite strict social distancing measures and an unprecedented global recession, Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow at 2.8 percent in 2020. Although this performance is about 4.2 percentage points lower than the country’s recent performance, Vietnam will remain in positive growth territory, while the world economy is expected to contract by at least 4 percent. In East Asia, only two other countries—China and Myanmar—are expected to report positive GDP growth this year. Vietnam’s economic resilience is explained by the behavior of both its domestic economy and its externalsector. After three weeks of national lockdown in April, most industrial and service activities rebounded as domestic consumers and investors regained confidence. Not only has the private sector reacted positively to the gradual easing of social distancing and mobility measures, but the government has changed the course of its fiscal policy to support the recovery. After three years of fiscal consolidation, the authorities acted decisively and accelerated the disbursement of the public investment program, which increased by about 40 percent between January and September compared to the same period a year ago. Concurrently, like most central banks, the accommodative monetary policy and temporary financial relief measures of the State Bank of Vietnam provides breathing space to affected businesses and people.
Resilient Shores: Vietnam’s Coastal Development Between Opportunity and Disaster Risk

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-20) Rentschler, Jun ; de Vries Robbé, Sophie ; Braese, Johannes ; Nguyen, Dzung Huy ; van Ledden, Mathijs ; Pozueta Mayo, Beatriz

In a country that is among the most exposed to natural hazards, Vietnam’s coastline often bears the brunt. Typhoons, storm surges, riverine flooding, coastal erosion, droughts, or saline intrusion are all-too-familiar threats to most people living along the coast. Yet despite these risks, coastal regions host thriving economic sectors, providing livelihoods for a growing and rapidly urbanizing population. The coastal regions could be a powerful engine for Vietnam’s continued socioeconomic development, but rapid urbanization, economic growth, and climate change mean that disaster risks are bound to increase in the future. Although the government of Vietnam has made impressive progress in reducing and managing natural risks, current trends show that the work is far from complete. To guide effective action, this report provides an in-depth and multi-sectoral analysis of natural risks in coastal Vietnam and reviews current efforts in risk management, proposing a concrete action plan to balance the risks and opportunities of coastal development. These actions, if taken decisively, are an opportunity to strengthen the resilience of coastal communities and hence the prosperity of coming generations.
Vietnam: Food Smart Country Diagnostic

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09-28) World Bank

The term food smart refers to a food system that is efficient, meets the food needs of a country, and is environmentally sustainable. Reducing food loss and waste (FLW) is one of the critical pillars to build a smart food system. This diagnostic focuses on the FLW pillar, from farm to fork to landfill, with the objective of alerting policymakers to the role that addressing food loss and waste can play in meeting their various global and national policycommitments.