Sector/Thematic Studies

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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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    Rwanda Economic Update, February 2023: Making the most of Nature Based Tourism in Rwanda
    (Washington, DC, 2023-02) World Bank
    The Rwandan economy continued to achieve strong growth in 2022 in the face of weakening external demand and restrictive monetary policies required to control inflation. Rising food prices particularly affected the poor, who devote a large share of their spending to food and appear to have faced higher food inflation than richer households did. Growth is expected to decline somewhat in 2023 and then to recover closer to historical rates over the medium term. Tourism is a major source of Rwanda’s foreign exchange earnings and tends to generate a higher proportion of formal sector jobs than other sectors and could make a substantial contribution to growth. Within tourism, strengthening the provision of nature-based tourism, which accounts for eight percent of leisure and conference visitors in Rwanda would also help protect biodiversity and advance Rwanda’s efforts to adapt to climate change. Nature-based tourism faces significant challenges, including potential limits on expansion of revenues from one of the primary international attractions - gorilla trekking, degradation of the natural assets that underpin the sector, risks presented by infectious diseases, habitat change and overexploitation, and the impact of climate change on tourism demand. Key measures to promote nature-based tourism will need to include expanding the network of protected areas and improving management of the natural assets within and outside protected areas and diversifying the nature-based tourism’s offering while complementing efforts to diversify tourism activities. Efforts are required to enhance revenue sharing mechanisms to increase incentives for local communities to conserve natural assets and unlock new opportunities and community-led enterprises that generate revenue from tourism and sustainable management of natural resources, including forests. This is essential to address poverty, to mitigate poaching threats, other illegal activities, and reduce unsustainable exploitation of resources. It is also imperative to secure private sector participation in financing and operation of facilities by introducing innovative financing methods to secure the necessary investment, strengthening capacity and management of tourism facilities and services, and removing subsidies that contribute to environmental degradation.
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    Uganda Economic Update, 20th Edition: Unlocking the Benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area and Regional Integration
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-12) World Bank
    The Ugandan economy will need to grow rapidly, sustainably, and broadly (i.e., in a shared manner), to reach middle-income status, lift its population out of poverty, and generate enough jobs for one of the fastest growing populations in the world. To do so, the country needs to unlock its growth potential by allocating productive factors to their most efficient uses. However, like many least developing countries, Uganda suffers from a small domestic market and distortions, which leads to misallocation of resources. As a result, international trade will play a critical role in solving some of the current challenges faced by the Ugandan economy and ultimately boosting economic growth and development. For Uganda, greater integration into global value chains will be crucial to create jobs outside of subsistence agriculture and the informal economy. Sustained growth in trade will also increase consumer welfare by expanding options and lowering prices of consumer goods. Regional trade agreements can help Uganda diversify its range of markets and products, mitigating the risk of external shocks by lessening dependence on any single trading partner. Greater intra-African trade also offers opportunities to add more value to export commodities and to leverage the potential of agribusiness to promote inclusive growth. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers opportunities for Uganda to deepen its access to regional markets and exploit the growth potential of the region. Expanding regional and continental trade offers significant benefits for Uganda, including potential economies of scale, new export opportunities, access to higher levels of the value chain, and forums to improve trade facilitation. However, non-tariff barriers continue to limit trade, including the discriminatory use of technical regulations, non-harmonized sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, and complex rules of origin. Security challenges such as the closure of the border between Rwanda and Uganda in 2019 has also constrained regional integration. To benefit fully from the AfCFTA, Uganda and her neighbors will need to overcome hurdles that have long weakened the effectiveness of existing regional arrangements by facilitating better trade through improved logistics, infrastructure, addressing non-tariff barriers and avoiding the politically motivated trade barriers like border closures.
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    Enhancing Links of Poor Farmers to Markets: A Practice Review for Economic Inclusion in Zambia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09-16) Sparkman, Tim ; Sackett, Jill ; Avalos, Jorge ; Varghese Paul, Boban
    This report reviews the experiences of market linkage programs implemented globally, particularly those focused on poor smallholders, including women, as beneficiaries and farmers who participated in government social safety net schemes. The report highlights lessons learned by program implementers, governments, and other stakeholders related to efforts to link extremely poor households to productive markets. The research was commissioned to inform potential links between two World Bank projects that are currently supporting the economic inclusion of poor households in Zambia. The supporting women’s livelihood (SWL) program of the Girls’ Education and Women’s Empowerment and Livelihoods (GEWEL) Project provides a comprehensive package to promote economic inclusion among women from the poorest households. A second project, the Zambia Agribusiness and Trade Project (ZATP), enhances access to markets by linking producer organizations and high-growth small and medium-size enterprises to buyers (commercial off-takers) by facilitating productive alliances (commercial agreements between a producer organization and a commercial off-taker) and providing matching grants and technical support. A diagnostic of the status of and constraints facing SWL beneficiaries with respect to market linkages highlights the lack of upstream value chain linkages for them. The World Bank will provide technical assistance to the government of Zambia, through relevant ministries, to operationalize a mechanism, at scale, for forging market linkages by SWL households by linking them to ZATP beneficiaries. This report reviews and highlights the experiences of similar market linkages programs implemented globally, in an attempt to answer key questions raised by the program. This report describes operational considerations that may be relevant to the ZATP-GEWEL project context. It provides recommendations to guide the next steps in developing the ZATP-GEWEL pilot.
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    Rwanda Economic Update, September 2022: Boosting Exports Through Technology, Innovation, and Trade in Services
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) World Bank Group
    Rwanda’s economy staged a strong recovery in 2021. Inflationary pressures are mounting, leading the National Bank of Rwanda to tighten monetary policy. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to moderate in 2022-24, weighed down by the war in Ukraine. Fiscal consolidation and spending efficiencies will be introduced with the FY22-23 budget to preserve space for growth-enhancing investment. Rwandan firms’ participation in international trade has increased dramatically. Econometric analysis shows that obtaining International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certification, adoption of e-commerce and access to credit are significantly co-related to a Rwandan firm’s participation in exports. Innovation is significantly related to exports, although the relationship varies by sector and type of innovation. Rwanda is facing a skills deficit that, if not remedied, will constrain potential growth for high-skill services exports. Rwanda’s efforts to achieve international cooperation on services trade policies have been mixed. Rwanda should address its skills shortage by recognizing qualifications of regional professionals and abolishing work-permit regimes for all eligible regional professionals. However, the attraction of regional services providers should be accompanied by aggressive measures to help expand the number of Rwandan professionals.
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    Collection of Policy Notes for the New Somali Government: Unlocking Somalia’s Potential to Stabilize, Grow and Prosper
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-06) World Bank
    The arrival of a new government provides an opportunity to reinvigorate the reform agenda to deliver inclusive growth for the Somali people. Since the establishment of the Provisional Constitution in 2012, Somalia has made commendable progress on many fronts. Macroeconomic stability has been maintained, high levels of indebtedness are being addressed through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, several sector laws and institutions have been established, and a poverty reduction strategy paper has been developed – the ninth National Development Plan (NDP9). However, much remains to be done and the time has come to mark the next milestone in Somalia’s development trajectory through advancing reforms anchored in the HIPC process. The objective of the collection of policy notes is to provide sector-specific policy advice for the leadership of the new government, drawing on the expertise of the World Bank Group. This overview chapter synthesizes the advice across the sector policy notes and is organized in four sections. The first section outlines the current context. The second section presents the framework for organizing the policy notes. The third section summarizes the advice, and the fourth section concludes.
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    Somalia Economic Update, June 2022: Investing in Social Protection to Boost Resilience for Economic Growth
    (Washington, DC, 2022-06) World Bank
    Somalia is currently experiencing extreme and widespread drought which has been assessed as an unprecedented climatic event not seen in at least 40 years by meteorological agencies and humanitarian partners. After four consecutive seasons of poor rains, 90 percent of the country is experiencing severe drought conditions that include failed crop harvests, widespread water shortages, and decline in livestock production. The drought has intensified the humanitarian crisis and is driving the country into a brink of famine. Significant displacement of people is occurring as they abandoned their homes in search of food, water, and pasture for their livestock. The situation is being exacerbated by the war in Ukraine which has pushed up global food and oil prices. The higher commodity prices are disproportionally affecting the poor and exacerbating inequality. Against this challenging backdrop, the seventh edition of the World Bank’s Somalia Economic Update provides a detailed update of recent economic developments and growth outlook and makes a case for investing in Social Protection to help confront the frequent shocks that buffet the country. Overall, the Economic Update series aims to contribute to policymaking process and stimulate national dialogue on topical issues related to economic recovery and development.
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    Ethiopia - Rural Income Diagnostics Study: Leveraging the Transformation in the Agri-Food System and Global Trade to Expand Rural Incomes
    (Washington, DC, 2022-06) World Bank
    Ethiopia began the decade on a great run, with high economic growth and significant gains in poverty reduction nationally. But the gains were unevenly shared. Multiple shocks at the beginning of the new decade threaten to discontinue progress and possibly undo most of the gains made in the recent past. This rural income diagnostics (RID) study seeks to inform how to promote growth in rural incomes to accelerate poverty reduction. The objective of the RID is to examine how those who currently reside in rural areas can have higher incomes in the future, which can entail one or more members moving to urban areas. The focus is on income growth that results in higher incomes on average, but also income that is less volatile because of due consideration to effective risk reduction and management, and to ensuring that growth is sustainable. While the RID focuses only on income that is earned by rural households, it is much more detailed in its identification of the constraints because of this narrower focus. The diagnostic provides evidence to validate constraints and key areas of focus in ongoing agriculture and rural policy reforms and other relevant reforms under the Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda (HGERA), elevate the importance of some reforms where immediate action is required, and provide empirical arguments to support important policy interventions where consensus may be lacking or there is policy hesitation.
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    Sierra Leone Economic Update 2022: Leveraging SME Financing and Digitization for Inclusive Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31) World Bank
    The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has set back the economy and fiscal balances of Sierra Leone, which are now further impacted by the war in Ukraine. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth turned negative in 2020, while the government’s efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit were undermined by the need for emergency spending. Just when the economy began to recover, the war in Ukraine caused new disruption through sharply higher food and fuel prices. Thus, the authorities face both the short-term challenge of coping with these price shocks while recovering from the pandemic, and the medium-term challenge of renewing fiscal consolidation and promoting higher economic growth. Public finances have deteriorated since the onset of COVID-19. Inflationary pressures have accelerated since mid-2021, driven first by the post-pandemic rebound in consumption, and subsequently by global supply chain disruptions since the onset of the Ukraine war, and depreciation pressures on the Leone. Small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) can be engines of economic growth and job creation,under the right circumstances. Currently, in Sierra Leone, SMEs (along with micro-enterprises) provide livelihoods to approximately 70 percent of the population and represent over 90 percent of the domestic private sector. Access to finance for SMEs and digital finance are priorities for the government. Digital financial services (DFS) are not diversified, and mobile money remains the main driver. The payments infrastructure including the RTGS, ACH and securities settlement system needs to be upgraded. Sierra Leone lacks a modern credit reporting system. Key recommendations for greater SME access to finance are presented in this report.
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    Toward More People-Centered Service Delivery: Opportunities for the National ID System in Lesotho
    (Washington, DC, 2022-05) World Bank
    This note documents the current and emerging use cases for the national ID (NID) system in the Kingdom of Lesotho. It demonstrates considerable potential and progress to date, and makes recommendations for moving toward a more inclusive, trusted and service delivery-oriented NID system. Global experience has shown that national ID systems can promote more efficient, transparent and people-centered service delivery in the public and private sectors, particularly when the system is designed with the appropriate enablers and safeguards in place to support improved development outcomes and mitigate risks. As countries move toward digital economies and governance, ID systems often serve as an essential digital platform, underpinning the digital payment infrastructure and transactions, as well as the provision of online and offline government services.
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    Building a Responsive and Resilient Vocational Education and Training System in Benin
    (Washington, DC, 2022-05) World Bank
    Benin has embarked on an ambitious reform of rapid expansion of its technical and vocational education training (TVET) sector with the goal, among others, to increase enrollment tenfold by 2030. Investments in the Benin’s human development are important to support the government’s economic growth objectives. A specific area of focus and one that has received support from the very highest levels of government is the focus on skills development and TVET. The government has put in place significant reforms to support this subsector with the aim to increase the skills base of the Beninese workforce and the population more generally, to enhance the coordination and functioning of the sector, to strengthen sectoral and institutional governance, and to improve system efficiency and relevance of programs to the needs of the labor market. The objective of this policy note is to inform the ongoing TVET reforms. The note assesses the effectiveness of the TVET system in Benin and provides policy recommendations for improvements. This policy note also presents a perspective on the plans to rapidly expand the sector, drawing on the experience of other economies including high-growth East Asian countries, and considers global trends, technological advances, climate change, and structural challenges, including the high level of informal employment and gender inequality. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter one presents background information outlining opportunities, challenges, and reforms in the Benin TVET system. Chapter two provides broader analysis of the TVET system in Benin. Chapter three analyzes the recent developments and reforms to system of governance and financing. While chapter four assesses the quality assurance (QA) system in TVET, chapter five summarizes the key reform options and policy recommendations.