Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Innovation in Payments: Opportunities and Challenges for EMDEs

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank ; International Monetary Fund

The global economy is undergoing a rapid digital transformation that is changing many conventional notions about our behavior and preferences. This includes the way in which we, as consumers, as businesses, or in interactions with government, seek out goods and services and pay for them or how we receive money from others or transfer it to family or friends. As the payments industry undergoes radical changes due to digital transformation, users, providers of payment services, and regulators are adapting to the new dynamics at varying paces. This note discusses the most significant innovations in payments and their key impacts and implications on users, banks and other payment service providers, regulators, and the overall structure of the payments market. The note places special emphasis on how emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) can reap the benefits of payment innovations in terms of costs, convenience, accessibility, and inclusion for individuals and firms, and allow them to leapfrog development of their payments markets and effectively support economic activity.
COVID-19: The Regulatory and Supervisory Implications for the Banking Sector

(International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05-21) International Monetary Fund ; World Bank

This note provides a set of high-level recommendations that can guide national regulatory and supervisory responses to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and offers an overview of measures taken across jurisdictions to date. The banking sector plays a critical role in mitigating the unprecedented macroeconomic and financial shock caused by the pandemic. Timely, targeted and well-designed regulatory and supervisory actions are essential to maintain the provision of critical financial services, particularly to households and firms that are affected most, while mitigating financial risks, maintaining balance sheet transparency, and preserving longer-term financial policy credibility. In this context, authorities should employ the embedded flexibility of regulatory, supervisory, and accounting frameworks, and encourage judicious loan restructuring while continuing to uphold minimum prudential standards. Standard-setting bodies have issued guidance to support national authorities in their efforts to provide effective, sound, and well-coordinated policy measures.
Cote d'Ivoire Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - 2018 Update

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-02-15) World Bank ; International Monetary Fund

Côte d’Ivoire has a moderate risk of external debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. All liquidity and solvency external debt indicators lie below their thresholds under the baseline scenario. However, the ratios of external debt service to revenue and exports are projected to rise, diminishing room to maneuver, and an export shock would cause breaches of their relevant thresholds under the worst-case stress scenarios. This underscores the substantial downside risks originating from external shocks and the need to boost domestic revenue mobilization. The overall risk of public debt distress is also moderate, with public debt to GDP ratio expected to decrease gradually. A sustained compliance with the WAEMU fiscal deficit convergence criterion and a prudent external borrowing strategy balancing the costs and economic return of new loans will be crucial to preserve debt sustainability.
Burkina Faso: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis 2018 Update

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-02-07) World Bank ; International Monetary Fund

This joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2018 Article IV consultation and first review of the three-year program supported by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF). It is based on end-2017 debt data and the latest methodology underpinning the LIC DSF, which triggered an improvement in debt indicator thresholds. External risk of debt distress in Burkina Faso remains moderate. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative thresholds under the baseline scenario. In line with the Staff Report, the baseline scenario is anchored on an overall fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP from 2019. In a customized scenario meant to illustrate fiscal and external risks, two thresholds are breached. The overall public debt does not breach the relevant benchmark in the baseline and Burkina Faso is assessed as having a moderate risk of public debt distress, as the external debt risk rating is moderate. Burkina Faso would need to: (i) maintain a sound macro-fiscal framework; (ii) implement structural reforms to diversify its export base; and (iii) limit non-concessional borrowing to prevent a deterioration of its debt sustainability outlook.
Guinea: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01) International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund

The results of the update of the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) show that Guinea continues to be at a moderate risk of external debt distress. All external debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario lie below their policy-dependent thresholds and debt dynamics have improved compared to the 2017 DSA, given higher-than-anticipated growth during 2016–17. Stress tests suggest that debt vulnerabilities owing to accumulation of external debt related to financing of infrastructure projects will increase if adverse shocks materialize, though remaining more contained than in the 2017 DSA. Under most extreme stress tests, all solvency and liquidity indicators except one breach their thresholds and for prolonged periods. The inclusion of domestic debt does not significantly change the conclusion of the external DSA. A prudent external borrowing strategy aimed at maximizing the concessionality of new debt, limiting non-concessional loans in line with programmed amounts, and strengthening debt management will be key to preserving medium-term debt sustainability.
Bangladesh: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01) International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund

This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) fully updates the May 2017 joint IMF/WB DSA. Bangladesh’s risks of external debt distress and overall debt distress continue to be assessed as low. The FY17 fiscal deficit remains well below the 5 percent of GDP budget target. Spending control and slower implementation of development projects more than compensated for revenue underperformance. The issuance of National Savings Certificates (NSCs) remains high. Over the medium term, debt ratios are projected to remain on a sustainable path, assuming continued spending restraint, with the deficit used to finance productive investment. Boosting budget revenue is key to creating fiscal space for diversification and growth. The authorities are delaying the implementation of the VAT reform further by two years. Any additional costs from spending pressures ahead of the parliamentary elections and from the Rohingya refugees remain key risks.
The Gambia: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01) International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund

An updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) indicates that The Gambia is currently in external debt distress and that public debt is unsustainable. Both external and domestic debt are very high, and a significant pipeline of already-contracted loans poses risks to solvency. External debt stock indicators have deteriorated since the March 2018 DSA, and all five external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds by large margins and for an extended period in the passive scenario and in the active (baseline) scenario. The stress test results illustrate the country’s high vulnerability to shocks, total public debt is expected to remain elevated throughout the projection period, rollover risks associated with the short maturity of domestic debt are high, and contingent liabilities related to SOE debt pose additional risks. Furthermore, the sustained primary surpluses needed to reduce public debt would be politically and socially challenging given The Gambia’s substantial development needs. New borrowing would need to be on highly concessional terms and reserved for the very highest priority projects for which grant-financing is not available. The government should also refrain from offering any guarantees. An illustrative scenario shows how debt relief (comprising a deferral of principal due to pluri-lateral, bilateral official and private creditors and a softening of the terms of the already contracted loans)—complementing the implementation of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and debt strategy—could be instrumental in restoring debt sustainability.
Liberia: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01) International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund

Liberia remains at moderate risk of debt distress, though care and precision in implementing its ambitious infrastructure program will be critical. Under the baseline scenario, which reflects staff’s interpretation of the authorities’ stated plans, Liberia will remain at moderate risk of debt distress but move closer to thresholds that mark a high probability of debt distress. Adverse risks to the baseline are also significant. Staff discussed an alternative reform scenario that would ease the risk of debt distress while achieving roughly the same level of spending. The reform scenario assumes that all external financing would be on concessional terms and the amount of additional borrowing would be strictly controlled and supplemented with domestic resource mobilization. Such steps would be beneficial not only to improve the safety margin for the preservation of debt and macroeconomic stability, but also to sustain broad-based growth over the forecast horizon.
Dominica: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01) International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund

Dominica continues to be at high risk of debt distress. However, hurricane Maria in September 2017 caused severe social hardship and deterioration of fiscal and external balances, weakening sustainability. In addition, Dominica’s debt carrying capacity as measured by the three-year CPIA average declined. Thus, setting public and publicly guaranteed total and external debt on a declining path would require prudent and efficient fiscal policies that safeguard fiscal space for social relief and reconstruction investment. A fiscal consolidation plan is needed after recovery takes hold to sustain reconstruction investment. Donor grant mobilization is key to minimize the debt burden. Main risks to the debt sustainability outlook include sudden stop in citizenship-by-investment (CBI) program revenues, financial instability from weakened balance sheets, and recurrent natural disasters.
Tuvalu: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01) International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund

The DSA concludes that Tuvalu remains at a high risk of debt distress, in line with the 2016 DSA conclusion. External debt has breached several thresholds as of 2017, including for the present value of debt-to-GDP. Risks to debt sustainability remain high due to elevated current spending, a projected decline in fishing revenue and grants, and risks of natural disasters. A persistent fiscal deficit is projected to deplete fiscal buffers and cause the present value of debt-to-GDP to breach its indicative threshold in the long run. This underscores the importance of containing the fiscal deficit and maintaining buffers.