Sector/Thematic Studies

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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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    Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07) World Bank ; International Monetary Fund
    Chad’s risks of external and overall debt distress are high but have nonetheless declined in the past year. All but one external debt sustainability indicators are below their respective thresholds from 2019 onwards. The debt-to-revenue ratio moderately breaches its threshold under the baseline scenario. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The debt sustainability analysis is based on projected continued fiscal prudence and an increase in non-oil revenues. Following the restructuring in 2018, the new Glencore debt contract has helped contain the impact of low oil prices on debt sustainability, as it allows for lower debt service when oil prices are lower.
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    Chad: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-07-13) International Development Association ; International Monetary Fund
    Following the restructuring of the debt to Glencore and the progress made in clearing external arrears, debt vulnerabilities declined significantly, and the external risk rating has been upgraded to high. The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) shows that all debt burden indicators, except the debt-service-to-revenue ratio which has minor and temporary breaches, are below their respective thresholds in the baseline from 2018 onwards. The debt-service-to-revenue ratio, falls below the threshold in 2019 and remains so throughout the projection period, except for minor breaches in 2020 and 2021. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to- gross domestic product (GDP) ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The fixed primary balance scenario, which keeps the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio unchanged from 2017, shows the debt ratio declining at a slower pace throughout the forecast period, further highlighting the need to adhere to the prudent fiscal policy framework underpinning the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported program. Adoption and implementation of an appropriate debt management strategy, while making progress in economic diversification will further reduce vulnerabilities.