03. Journals

3,111 items available

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Using Individual-Level Randomized Treatment to Learn about Market Structure
(American Economic Association, 2022-10) Casaburi, Lorenzo; Reed, Tristan
Interference across competing firms in RCTs can be informative about market structure. An experiment that subsidizes a random subset of traders who buy cocoa from farmers in Sierra Leone illustrates this idea. Interpreting treatment-control differences in prices and quantities purchased from farmers through a model of Cournot competition reveals differentiation between traders is low. Combining this result with quasi-experimental variation in world prices shows that the number of traders competing is 50 percent higher than the number operating in a village. Own-price and cross-price supply elasticities are high. Farmers face a competitive market in this first stage of the value chain.
Taxing the Good? Distortions, Misallocation, and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02) Cirera, Xavier; Maemir, Hibret
This paper uses comprehensive and comparable firm-level manufacturing censuses from four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to examine the extent, costs, and nature of within-industry resource misallocation between heterogeneous production units. This paper finds evidence of severe misallocation in which resources are diverted away from high-productivity firms towards low-productivity ones, although the magnitude differs across countries. Estimated aggregate productivity gains from the hypothetical equalization of marginal returns range from 30 percent in Côte d’Ivoire to 160 percent in Kenya. The magnitude of reallocation gains appears considerably lower when performing the same counterfactual exercise based on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys once the value-added shares of industries are adjusted using the census data. This suggests that linking firm-level survey data to aggregate outcomes requires census-type data or sampling methods that take the true structure of production into account.
Predicting Entrepreneurial Success is Hard: Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria
(Elsevier, 2019-11) McKenzie, David
We compare the absolute and relative performance of three approaches to predicting outcomes for entrants in a business plan competition in Nigeria: Business plan scores from judges, simple ad hoc prediction models used by researchers, and machine learning approaches. We find that i) business plan scores from judges are uncorrelated with business survival, employment, sales, or profits three years later; ii) a few key characteristics of entrepreneurs such as gender, age, ability, and business sector do have some predictive power for future outcomes; iii) modern machine learning methods do not offer noticeable improvements; iv) the overall predictive power of all approaches is very low, highlighting the fundamental difficulty of picking competition winners.
Maize Value Chain Analysis: A Case of Smallholder Maize Production and Marketing in Selected Areas of Malawi and Mozambique
(Taylor and Francis, 2018-07-25) Mango, Nelson; Mapemba, Lawrence; Tchale, Hardwick; Makate, Clifton; Dunjana, Nothando; Lundy, Mark
This article analyzes maize value chain performance in Malawi and Mozambique using data collected from a market study commissioned by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture. The results show that although smallholder maize productivity is slightly higher in Malawi, a maize value chain analysis indicates that smallholder maize in Mozambique is more competitive. Mozambique has a relatively higher competitive advantage with regard to maize production because of the relatively lower input costs, perhaps due to its proximity to the coast, which invariably reduces input costs relative to its land-locked neighbor, Malawi. However, smallholder maize productivity is low in both countries, when compared to the regional average. The article concludes that interventions aimed at raising smallholder productivity would invariably make smallholder farmers more competitive. It proposes policy implications aimed at raising the productivity and trade competitiveness of maize, as this will ensure the overall productivity of the maize-based smallholder farming system in the two countries.
Competition or Cooperation?: Using Team and Tournament Incentives for Learning among Female Farmers in Rural Uganda
(Elsevier, 2018-03) Vasilaky, Kathryn N.; Islam, Asif M.
This study explores the behavioral learning characteristics of smallholder female farmers in Uganda by quantifying the amount of information learned under different incentive schemes. The paper shows how competitive versus team incentives compare in motivating Ugandan farmers to learn and share information relevant to adopting a new agricultural technology. We find that tournament-based incentives provide greater outcomes in terms of total information learned than threshold-based team incentives. Furthermore the order of the incentive – whether the tournament precedes or follows the team incentive scheme – does not affect the volume of information learned. New information introduced between rounds was learned by more individuals under team incentives than under tournament incentives. The study provides direct practical policy recommendations for improving learning in the context of agriculture in Uganda.
Pathways to High and Low Performance: Factors Differentiating Primary Care Facilities under Performance-Based Financing in Nigeria
(Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 2018-01) Mabuchi, Shunsuke; Sesan, Temilade; Bennett, Sara C.
The determinants of primary health facility performance in developing countries have not been well studied. One of the most under-researched areas is health facility management. This study investigated health facilities under the pilot performance-based financing (PBF) scheme in Nigeria, and aimed to understand which factors differentiated primary health care centers (PHCCs) which had performed well, vs those which had not, with a focus on health facility management practices. We used a multiple case study where we compared two high-performing PHCCs and two low-performing PHCCs for each of the two PBF target states. Two teams of two trained local researchers spent 1 week at each PHCC and collected semi-structured interview, observation and documentary data. Data from interviews were transcribed, translated and coded using a framework approach. The data for each PHCC were synthesized to understand dynamic interactions of different elements in each case. We then compared the characteristics of high and low performers. The areas in which critical differences between high and low-performers emerged were: community engagement and support; and performance and staff management. We also found that (i) contextual and health system factors particularly staffing, access and competition with other providers; (ii) health center management including community engagement, performance management and staff management; and (iii) community leader support interacted and drove performance improvement among the PHCCs. Among them, we found that good health center management can overcome some contextual and health system barriers and enhance community leader support. This study findings suggest a strong need to select capable and motivated health center managers, provide long-term coaching in managerial skills, and motivate them to improve their practices. The study also highlights the need to position engagement with community leaders as a key management practice and a central element of interventions to improve PHCC performance.
Drivers of Structural Transformation: The Case of the Manufacturing Sector in Africa
(Elsevier, 2017-11) Mijiyawa, Abdoul' Ganiou
This paper analyzes the driving factors of manufacturing development in Africa. Using the system-GMM technique with four-year average panel data over the period 1995–2014, including 53 African countries, the paper finds four main results. (1) There is a U-shaped relationship between the manufacturing share of GDP and per capita GDP. (2) Exchange rate depreciation stimulates Africa’s manufacturing sector. (3) Good governance, especially a low level of corruption and better government effectiveness contribute to Africa’s manufacturing development. (4) The size of domestic market positively affects the manufacturing share of GDP. On the other hand, the paper finds no significant effects of FDI and urbanization on manufacturing development. The implication of these findings is that improving the level of competitiveness, expanding the size of domestic market, combating corruption as well as improving government effectiveness are key for Africa’s manufacturing sector development. Moreover, the U-shaped relationship between the manufacturing share of GDP and per capita GDP, implies that African countries should not expect industrialization to automatically happen with income increase, but rather, they should proactively tackle key obstacles to the development of the manufacturing sector.
Identifying Gazelles: Expert Panels vs. Surveys as a Means to Identify Firms with Rapid Growth Potential
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-10-01) Fafchamps, Marcel; Woodruff, Christopher
We conduct a business plan competition to test whether survey instruments or panel judges are able to identify the fastest growing firms. Participants submitted six- to eight-page business plans and defended them before a three- or four-judge panel. We surveyed applicants shortly after they applied and one and two years after the competition. We use follow-up surveys to construct measures of enterprise growth and baseline surveys and panel scores to construct measures of enterprise growth potential. We find that a measure of ability correlates strongly with future growth, but that the panel scores add to predictive power even after controlling for ability and other survey variables. The survey questions have more power to explain the variance in growth. Participants presenting before the panel were given a chance to win customized management training. Fourteen months after the training, we find no positive effect of the training on growth of the business.
Identifying and Spurring High-Growth Entrepreneurship: Experimental Evidence from a Business Plan Competition
(American Economic Association, 2017-08) McKenzie, David
Almost all firms in developing countries have fewer than ten workers, with a modal size of one. Are there potential high-growth entrepreneurs, and can public policy help identify them and facilitate their growth? A large-scale national business plan competition in Nigeria provides evidence on these questions. Random assignment of US$34 million in grants provided each winner with approximately US$50,000. Surveys tracking applicants over five years show that winning leads to greater firm entry, more survival, higher profits and sales, and higher employment, including increases of over 20 percentage points in the likelihood of a firm having ten or more workers.
Can Business Owners Form Accurate Counterfactuals?: Eliciting Treatment and Control Beliefs about Their Outcomes in the Alternative Treatment Status
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-06-20) McKenzie, David
A survey of participants in a large-scale business plan competition experiment, in which winners received an average of U.S. $50,000 each, is used to elicit ex-post beliefs about what the outcomes would have been in the alternative treatment status. Participants are asked the percent chance they would be operating a firm, and the number of employees and monthly sales they would have, had their treatment status been reversed. The study finds the control group to have reasonably accurate expectations of the large treatment effect they would experience on the likelihood of operating a firm, although this may reflect the treatment effect being close to an upper bound. The control group dramatically overestimates how much winning would help them grow the size of their firm. The treatment group overestimates how much winning helps their chance of their business surviving and also overestimates how much winning helps them grow their firms. In addition, these counterfactual expectations appear unable to generate accurate relative rankings of which groups of participants benefit most from treatment.