03. Journals

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These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 72
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    The value of lost output and cost of illness of noncommunicable diseases in the Pacific
    (Elsevier, 2022-12-01) Hou, Xiaohui ; Anderson, Ian ; Burton-Mckenzie, Ethan-John
    The Pacific Island Countries face some of the highest rates of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs). This study estimates the economic costs of NCDs for each year from 2015 to 2040, focusing on eleven Pacific Island nations. Data and Methods: two methods were used to estimate the mortality and morbidity costs using a ‘value of lost output’ and ‘cost of illness’ approach respectively. Results: Five results stand out in terms of projected economic costs of NCD mortality and morbidity analyses in the Pacific: (i) the economic burden of NCDs in the Pacific is greater than expected for middle‐income countries; (ii) although cardiovascular disease is the biggest contributor to the mortality burden in the region, diabetes plays a far greater role in the Pacific countries compared to the global average; (iii) the economic burden of NCDs is increasing with time, especially as incomes rise; (iv) the biggest driver of lost output is the potential loss of labor due to early death from NCDs; and (v) the cost of illness due to diabetes is high across the Pacific countries, with highest among the Polynesian countries. NCDs alone can put enormous threat to the small Pacific economies. Targeted interventions to reduce disease prevalence, as outlined in the Pacific NCDs Roadmap, are vital to reduce the long-term costs associated with NCD mortality and morbidity.
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    Measuring Human Capital in Middle Income Countries
    (Elsevier, 2022-12) Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli ; Torre, Iván
    This paper develops an indicator that measures the level of human capital to address the specific education and health challenges faced by middle income countries. We apply this indicator to countries in Europe and Central Asia, where productive employment requires skills that are more prevalent among higher education graduates, and where good health is associated to low levels of adult health risk factors. The Europe and Central Asia Human Capital Index (ECA-HCI) extends the World Bank's Human Capital Index by adding a measure of quality-adjusted years of higher education to the original education component, and it includes the prevalence of three adult health risk factors—obesity, smoking, and heavy drinking—as an additional proxy for latent health status. The results show that children born today in the average country in Europe and Central Asia will be almost half as productive as they would have had they reached the benchmark of complete education and full health. Countries with good basic education outcomes do not necessarily have good higher education outcomes, and high prevalence of adult health risk factors can offset good education indicators. This extension of the Human Capital Index could also be useful for assessing the state of human capital in middle-income countries in general.
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    Centring Rights-Based Access to Self-Care Interventions
    (Taylor and Francis, 2022-11-11) Ferguson, Laura ; Narasimhan, Manjulaa
    Ensuring sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) is fundamental to the success of the Sustainable Development Goals and a range of other global commitments. As such, innovations that can help promote SRHR, including self-care interventions, offer exciting opportunities to improve health and rights simultaneously. While self-care is not new conceptually, the growing number of evidence-based technologies, medicines and products that can be accessed outside of the formal health sector point to the role lay people play as active participants in their own health care.
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    The Promise and Limitations of Information Technology for Tax Mobilization
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-20) Okunogbe, Oyebola ; Santoro, Fabrizio
    Tax revenue in many low- and middle-income countries is inadequate for funding investments in public goods and human capital. With high levels of informality and limited state capacity, many tax authorities have difficulty determining the true tax base and collecting taxes efficiently and equitably. Tax authorities are increasingly adopting new technologies to improve administrative processes, reduce taxpayer compliance costs, and enhance their overall effectiveness. This paper reviews the recent literature on the use of technology for tax administration. It highlights the potential of technology to improve tax collection by helping to identify the tax base, monitor compliance, and facilitate compliance. It also identifies possible limitations to the use of technology arising from inadequate infrastructure and connectivity, lack of adoption or resistance by taxpayers and tax collectors, lack of institutional mainstreaming, and an unsupportive regulatory environment.
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    Improving the Well-Being of Adolescent Girls in Developing Countries
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-13) Bergstrom, Katy ; Özler, Berk
    This paper conducts a large, narrative review of interventions that might plausibly (a) increase educational attainment, (b) delay childbearing, and/or (c) delay marriage for adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using 108 interventions from 78 studies, predominantly in LMICs, the paper summarizes the performance of 15 categories of interventions in improving these outcomes. Transfer programs emerge as broadly effective in increasing educational attainment but their effects on delaying fertility and marriage remain mixed and dependent on context. Construction of schools in underserved areas and the provision of information on returns to schooling and academic performance also increase schooling. No category of interventions is found to be categorically effective in delaying pregnancies and reducing child marriages among adolescent girls. While targeted provision of sexual and reproductive health services, including vouchers and subsidies for family planning, and increasing job opportunities for women seem promising, more research is needed to evaluate the longer-term effects of such interventions. We propose that future studies should aim to measure short-term outcomes that can form good surrogates for long-term welfare gains and should collect detailed cost information.
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    Income and Wealth Inequality in Hong Kong, 1981–2020: The Rise of Pluto-Communism?
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-08) Piketty, Thomas ; Yang, Li
    The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution and institutional roots of Hong Kong's growing economic inequality and political cleavages. By combining multiple sources of data (household surveys, fiscal data, wealth rankings, national accounts) and methodological innovations, two main findings are obtained. First, he evidence suggests a very large rise in income and wealth inequality in Hong Kong over the last four decades. Second, based on the latest opinion poll data, business elites, who carry disproportionate weight in Hong Kong's Legislative Council, are found to be more likely to vote for the pro-establishment camp (presumably to ensure that policies are passed that protect their political and economic interests). This paper argues that the unique alliance of government and business elites in a partially democratic political system is the plausible institutional root of Hong Kong's rising inequality and political cleavages.
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    Using Individual-Level Randomized Treatment to Learn about Market Structure
    (American Economic Association, 2022-10) Casaburi, Lorenzo ; Reed, Tristan
    Interference across competing firms in RCTs can be informative about market structure. An experiment that subsidizes a random subset of traders who buy cocoa from farmers in Sierra Leone illustrates this idea. Interpreting treatment-control differences in prices and quantities purchased from farmers through a model of Cournot competition reveals differentiation between traders is low. Combining this result with quasi-experimental variation in world prices shows that the number of traders competing is 50 percent higher than the number operating in a village. Own-price and cross-price supply elasticities are high. Farmers face a competitive market in this first stage of the value chain.
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    Can cities bounce back better from COVID-19? Reflections from emerging post-pandemic recovery plans and trade-offs
    (SAGE, 2022-10-01) Wahba, Sameh N
    As cities plan for post-COVID recovery, many questions preoccupy mayors, policymakers, planners, and developers. This article examines COVID-19’s impact on cities, drawing on local governments’ developing policies and responses to identify some of the emerging trends and trade-offs. Overall, city recovery will likely involve some transformation to land uses and real estate markets, with increasing demand for urban amenities and nature, and with policies in support of affordable housing, slum upgrading and informal sector employment, to achieve more liveable and inclusive cities. This in turn will depend on the policies, planning, finance, digital infrastructure, and governance systems in place. While many city challenges predate COVID-19, they were exacerbated by the pandemic. The extent to which cities, and especially cities in the global South, will overcome such challenges will depend on political will and the implementation of targeted policies and low-cost investments in sustainability, liveability and inclusion.
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    Gender norms, landholdership, and rural land use fee and agricultural income tax in Ethiopia
    (Elsevier, 2022-10-01) Komatsu, Hitomi ; Ambel, Alemayehu A. ; Koolwal, Gayatri ; Yonis, Manex Bule
    Area-based land taxes, a form of property tax, exist where rural land markets do not exist or do not function well. Understanding how these taxes affect different groups of landholders, including by men and women, is important since a tax based on the land size is likely to have an outsized effect on smaller landholders. However, survey data allowing for an individual- and household-disaggregated analysis has been scarce. Using newly available data on tax payments and self-reported individual land ownership from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey 2018/2019, this paper assessed the gender implications of an area-based rural land use fee and agricultural income tax in Ethiopia. We found that female adult-only households were more likely than dual adult households to be smallholders with less than 0.5 hectare of land, and these smallholders faced the largest per-hectare tax rates. Female-headed- and female adult-only households faced a tax incidence that was 37 percent higher than it was for male-headed and dual-adult households. The gender land ownership patterns, norms limiting women’s role in agriculture, household structures, and gender agricultural productivity gaps are likely to result in lower consumption, and consequently, a higher tax burden for women. Finally, we simulated the effect of a hypothetical tax schedule with progressive per-hectare tax rates and exemptions for smallholders and found that while this would reduce women’s tax burdens, the tax remained to be regressive because of the prevalence of landholder ship among poor households. Our study highlights the difficulty of area-based land taxes to be progressive.
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    Cutting Special Interests by the Roots: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon
    (Elsevier, 2022-10-01) Braganca, Arthur ; Dahis, Ricardo
    Government policies may impact economic outcomes directly but also indirectly through effects on political incentives. This paper examines the effects of the PPCDAm, a centralized set of environmental policies that effectively raised the expected cost of illegal deforestation, on the behavior of a powerful special-interest group operating in the Brazilian Amazon: farmers. Using different identification strategies, we document that municipalities governed by farmer politicians experienced larger declines in deforestation, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and violence than municipalities governed by other politicians after this set of policies was implemented. Our findings suggest the PPCDAm had indirect and persistent effects on political incentives, amplifying its impact on environmental and social outcomes.