03. Journals

2,963 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Estimating the Welfare Costs of Reforming the Iraq Public Distribution System: A Mixed Demand Approach

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06) Krishnan, Nandini ; Olivieri, Sergio ; Ramadan, Racha

Through three decades of conflict, food rations delivered through the public distribution system (PDS) have remained the largest safety net among Iraq’s population. Reforming the PDS continues to be politically challenging, notwithstanding the system’s import dependence, economic distortions, and unsustainable fiscal burden. The oil price decline of mid-2014 and recent efforts to rebuild and recover have put PDS reform back on the agenda. The government needs to find an effective way to deliver broad benefits from a narrow economic base reliant on oil. The study described here adopts a mixed demand approach to analyzing household consumption patterns for the purpose of assessing plausible reform scenarios and estimating the direction and scale of the associated welfare costs and transfers. It finds that household consumption of PDS items is relatively inelastic to changes in price, particularly among the poor. The results suggest that any one-shot reform will have sizeable adverse welfare impacts and will need to be preceded by a well-targeted compensation mechanism. To keep welfare constant, subsidy removal in urban areas, for example, would require the poorest and richest households to be compensated for, respectively, 74 per cent and nearly 40 per cent of their PDS expenditures.
How to Target Households in Adaptive Social Protection Systems? Evidence from Humanitarian and Development Approaches in Niger

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06) Schnitzer, Pascale

The methods used to identify the beneficiaries of programs aiming to address persistent poverty and shocks are subject to frequent policy debates. Relying on panel data from Niger, this report simulates the performance of various targeting methods that are widely used by development and humanitarian actors. The methods include proxy-means testing (PMT), household economy analysis (HEA), geographical targeting, and combined methods. Results show that PMT performs more effectively in identifying persistently poor households, while HEA shows superior performance in identifying transiently food insecure households. Geographical targeting is particularly efficient in responding to food crises, which tend to be largely covariate. Combinations of geographical, PMT, and HEA approaches may be used as part of an efficient and scalable adaptive social protection system. Results motivate the consolidation of data across programs, which can support the application of alternative targeting methods tailored to program-specific objectives.
Social Protection in Contexts of Fragility and Forced Displacement: Introduction to a Special Issue

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06) Bruck, Tilman ; Cuesta, Jose ; De Hoop, Jacobus ; Gentilini, Ugo ; Peterman, Amber

Effective social protection is increasingly as essential to supporting affected populations in situations of protracted instability and displacement. Despite the growing use of social protection in these settings, there is comparatively little rigorous research on what works, for whom, and why. This special issue contributes by adding seven high-quality studies that raise substantially our understanding of the role of social protection in fragile contexts and in settings of forced displacement and migration. Together, these studies fill knowledge gaps, help support informed decision-making by policy-makers and practitioners, and demonstrate that impact evaluation and the analysis of social protection in challenging humanitarian settings are possible. The studies provide evidence that design choices in implementation, such as which population to target, choice of transfer modality or which messages are delivered with programs, can make a substantial difference in the realization of positive benefits among vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the findings of the studies underline the relevance of tailoring program components to populations, which may benefit more or less from traditional program implementation models.
Twenty Years of Wage Inequality in Latin America

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-12-06) Messina, Julian ; Silva, Joana

This article documents an inverse U-shape in the evolution of wage inequality in Latin America since 1995, with a sharp reduction starting in 2002. The Gini coefficient of wages increased from 42 to 44 between 1995 and 2002 and declined to 39 by 2015. Between 2002 and 2015, the 90/10 log hourly earnings ratio decreased by 26 percent. The decline since 2002 was characterized by rising wages across the board, but especially at the bottom of the wage distribution in each country. Triggered by a rapid expansion of educational attainment, the wages of college and high school graduates fell relative to the wages of workers with only primary education. The premium for labor market experience also fell significantly. However, the compression of wages was not entirely driven by changes in the wage structure across skill groups. Two-thirds of the decline in the variance of wages took place within skill groups. Changes in the sectoral, occupational, and formal/informal composition of jobs matter for the process of reduction in inequality, but they do not fully account for the fall in within-skill variance. Evidence based on longitudinal matched employer-employee administrative data suggests that an important driver was falling wage dispersion across firms.
Societal Poverty: A Relative and Relevant Measure

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-11-02) Jolliffe, Dean ; Prydz, Espen Beer

Poverty lines are typically higher in richer countries, and lower in poorer ones, reflecting the relative nature of national assessments of who is considered poor. In many high-income countries, poverty lines are explicitly relative, set as a share of mean or median income. Despite systematic variation in how countries define poverty, global poverty counts are based on fixed-value lines. To reflect national assessments of poverty in a global headcount of poverty, this paper proposes a societal poverty line. The proposed societal poverty line is derived from 699 harmonized national poverty lines, has an intercept of $1 per day and a relative gradient of 50 percent of median national income or consumption. The societal poverty line is more closely aligned with national definitions of poverty than other proposed relative lines. By this relative measure, societal poverty has fallen steadily since 1990, but at a much slower pace than absolute extreme poverty.
Book Review of Gender Equality and Tourism: Beyond Empowerment edited by Stroma Cole

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-10-29) Li, Wendy ; Twining-Ward, Louise

Through the tourism sector, poor women around the world have uncovered new revenue-generating opportunities. For many development agencies, that’s a victory. But does increased income automatically lead to increased agency, autonomy, and authority, or in other words, empowerment? Gender Equality and Tourism: Beyond Empowerment provides a timely and accessible examination of the extent to which work in tourism can empower women to transform unequal power relations in favour of women’s rights. Stroma Cole, the book’s editor, argues that economic empowerment is missing the point if it fails to make a lasting change in women’s agency and choices over their own lives. This book is a collection of academic papers originally prepared for a 2016 gender and tourism conference in Turkey.
Finding the Poor vs. Measuring Their Poverty: Exploring the Drivers of Targeting Effectiveness in Indonesia

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10) Bah, Adama ; Bazzi, Samuel ; Sumarto, Sudarno ; Tobias, Julia

Centralized targeting registries are increasingly used to allocate social assistance benefits in developing countries. There are two key design issues that matter for targeting accuracy: (i) which households to survey for inclusion in the registry; and (ii) how to rank surveyed households. We attempt to identify their relative importance by evaluating Indonesia's Unified Database for Social Protection Programs (UDB), among the largest targeting registries in the world, used to provide social assistance to over 25 million households. Linking administrative data with an independent household survey, we find that the UDB system is more progressive than previous, program-specific targeting approaches. However, simulating an alternative targeting system based on enumerating all households, we find a one-third reduction in undercoverage of the poor compared to focusing on households registered in the UDB. Overall, there are large gains in targeting performance from improving the initial registration stage relative to the ranking stage.
The Contribution of Increased Equity to the Estimated Social Benefits from a Transfer Program: An Illustration from PROGRESA/Oportunidades

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10) Alderman, Harold ; Behrman, Jere R. ; Tasneem, Afia

Most impact evaluations of Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) and Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCTs) focus on the returns to increased human capital investments that will be reaped largely or exclusively in the future (e.g., when current children have increased productivities as adults). But the objectives of these programs are not only to increase human capital investments with implications for future levels and distributions of income but also to alleviate current poverty and reduce current inequality. The current distributional gains from such programs depend on the degree of inequality aversion in the social welfare function. Simulations show that, for a range of inequality aversion parameters, the welfare gains from current redistribution for the Mexican PROGRESA CCT program can be as large, or possibly much larger, than the estimated present discounted value of future earnings from human capital investments in lower and upper secondary schooling. These, moreover, are underestimates of the gains from redistribution because, in addition to current gains, such gains will be augmented in the future through the distribution of the returns on the human capital investments induced by cash transfer programs. Therefore, to fully evaluate such programs, it is critical to incorporate the distributional gains, not only the impacts on human capital investments.
Distribution-Sensitive Multidimensional Poverty Measures

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10) Datt, Gaurav

This paper presents axiomatic arguments to make the case for distribution-sensitive multidimensional poverty measures. The commonly used counting measures violate the strong transfer axiom, which requires regressive transfers to be unambiguously poverty increasing, and they are also invariant to changes in the distribution of a given set of deprivations among the poor. The paper appeals to strong transfer as well as an additional cross-dimensional convexity property to offer axiomatic justification for distribution-sensitive multidimensional poverty measures. Given the nonlinear structure of these measures, it is also shown how the problem of an exact dimensional decomposition can be solved using Shapley decomposition methods to assess dimensional contributions to poverty. An empirical illustration for India highlights distinctive features of the distribution-sensitive measures.
Leaving, Staying or Coming Back? Migration Decisions During the Northern Mali Conflict

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-10) Hoogeveen, Johannes G. ; Rossi, Mariacristina ; Sansone, Dario

This paper uses a unique data set to analyse the migration dynamics of refugees, returnees and, internally displaced people from the Northern Mali conflict. Individuals were interviewed monthly using mobile phones. Our results cast light on the characteristics of these three groups before and after displacement. In addition, we test how employment and security were related to migration status, as well as the willingness to go back home. Individuals who were employed while displaced were less willing to go back to the North, while those who owned a gun were more likely to plan to go back. Additional indicators of personal safety played a lesser role.