03. Journals

2,963 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

Sub-collections of this Collection

Items in this collection

Now showing 1 - 10 of 56

Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath

(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-05) Devadas, Sharmila ; Elbadawi, Ibrahim ; Loayza, Norman V.

This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict.
Human Capital and Macroeconomic Development: A Review of the Evidence

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-07) Rossi, Federico

The role of human capital in facilitating macroeconomic development is at the center of both academic and policy debates. Through the lens of a simple aggregate production function, human capital might increase output per capita by directly entering in the production process, incentivizing the accumulation of complementary inputs, and facilitating the adoption of new technologies. This paper discusses the advantages and limitations of three approaches that have been used to evaluate the empirical importance of these channels: cross-country regressions, development accounting, and quantitative models. The key findings in the literature are reviewed and some of them are replicated using updated data. The bulk of the evidence suggests that human capital is an important determinant of cross-country income gaps, especially when its measurement is broadened to go beyond simple proxies of educational attainment. The paper concludes by highlighting policy implications and promising avenues for future work.
Comparing Costs of Living across World Cities

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02) Nakamura, Shohei ; Harati, Rawaa ; Lall, Somik V. ; Dikhanov, Yuri M. ; Hamadeh, Nada ; Oliver, William Vigil ; Rissanen, Marko Olavi ; Yamanaka, Mizuki

This paper compares costs of living across world cities. The International Comparison Program (ICP) reports price levels across world economies in its calculation of purchasing power parity through an extensive scale of price data collection and rigorous methodology. While the price levels are reported only at the national level, some modification makes it possible to compare the cost of living across a group of world cities. In addition, various agencies report costs of living rankings for world cities on a regular basis, and some of them, such as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)’s World Cost of Living Survey, systematically collect a wide variety of items from a host of cities, even covering low-income countries. This article's application of the ICP method to the EIU price data yields an overall reasonable result: richer cities have higher price levels, and the rankings of cities based on their price levels are similar when using the ICP and EIU data. Nevertheless, the results based on the EIU data differ from the ICP data relatively widely in some nonfood items and among cities with low price levels. This result highlights important issues regarding the data and methodology required to measure costs of living for development purposes.
Borrowing for Growth: Big Pushes and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10) Zanna, Luis-Felipe ; Buffie, Edward F. ; Portillo, Rafael ; Berg, Andrew ; Pattillo, Catherine

The paper evaluates big push borrowing-and-investment programs in a new model-based framework of debt sustainability that is explicitly designed for policy analysis. The new framework is grounded in a fully-articulated, dynamic macroeconomic model. It allows for financing schemes that mix concessional, external commercial, and domestic debt, while taking into account the impact of public investment on growth and constraints on the speed and magnitude of fiscal adjustment. Supplementing concessional loans with nonconcessional borrowing in world capital markets is generally a high-risk, high-return strategy. It may greatly enhance the prospects for debt sustainability or lead to spectacular failure; much depends on the fine details governing debt contracts, the dynamics of growth, and the speed of fiscal adjustment.
The Devil is in the Detail: Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Africa in the Last Two Decades

(Oxford University Press, 2019-08) Clementi, Fabio ; Fabiani, Michele ; Molini, Vasco

The present paper, starting from evidence of low growth-to-poverty elasticity characterizing Africa, purports to identify the distributional changes that limited the pro-poor impact of the last two decades’ growth. Distributional changes that went undetected by standard inequality measures were not showing a clear pattern of inequality on the continent. By applying a new decomposition technique based on a non-parametric method—the ‘relative distribution’—we found a clear distributional pattern affecting almost all analysed countries. Nineteen out twenty four countries experienced a significant increase in polarization, particularly in the lower tail of the distribution, and this distributional change lowered the pro-poor impact of growth substantially. Without this unfavorable redistribution, poverty could have decreased in these countries by an additional five percentage points.
The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Matta, Samer ; Appleton, Simon ; Bleaney, Michael

We use Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the “Arab Spring.” Our results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia’s economic growth. Moreover, we find that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.
Agriculture, Aid, and Economic Growth in Africa

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) McArthur, John W. ; Sachs, Jeffrey D.

How can foreign aid to agriculture support economic growth in Africa? This paper constructs a geographically indexed applied general equilibrium model that considers pathways through which aid might affect growth and structural transformation of labor markets in the context of soil nutrient variation, minimum subsistence consumption requirements, domestic transport costs, labor mobility, and constraints to self-financing of agricultural inputs. Using plausible parameters, the model is presented for Uganda as an illustrative case. We present three stylized scenarios to demonstrate the potential economy-wide impacts of both soil nutrient loss and replenishment, and how foreign aid can be targeted to support agricultural inputs that boost rural productivity and shift labor to boost real wages. One simulation shows how a temporary program of targeted official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture could generate, contrary to traditional Dutch disease concerns, an expansion in the primary tradable sector and positive permanent productivity and welfare effects, leading to a steady decline in the need for complementary ODA for budget support.
Globalization and Structural Change around the World, 1985–2015

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Wood, Adrian

Structural change is a vital element of successful development. Between 1985 and 2015, however, falling barriers to trade and transfer of technology shifted sectoral structures in different directions in different countries by intensifying endowment-related specialization. In skill-abundant developed countries, manufacturing became more skill-intensive and employed fewer workers. In land-scarce developing East Asia, labor-intensive manufacturing expanded, especially and hugely in China. In land-abundant Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, by contrast, manufacturing shares fell, while in land-scarce South Asia labor-intensive manufacturing was constrained by low literacy and inadequate infrastructure. This pattern of structural change contributed to higher average growth rates during this period in land-scarce than in land-abundant developing countries. Future changes in sectoral structures and growth rates will continue to be shaped by differences among countries in land abundance and skill supplies that matter for development policy choices.
Export Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth in the Western Balkan Countries

(Taylor and Francis, 2019) Shimbov, Bojan ; Alguacil, Maite ; Suárez, Celestino

In this paper, we seek to analyze the impact that the ability to produce more sophisticated goods has on the economic performance of the Western Balkan region and to determine the factors fostering this process. To do so, we elaborate an export sophistication index, à la Hausmann. The outcomes obtained show that export sophistication has a positive and significant effect on growth in these economies. Additionally, we found that this process is driven more by the sophistication in medium-skill and technology-intensive manufactures goods rather than through sophistication in high-skill goods. Our findings also confirm that a greater participation in international production networks and a better institutional environment stimulates the upgrading of exports, and the subsequent economic growth of these economies.
The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN

(Elsevier, 2018-01-05) Brueckner, Markus ; Dabla-Norris, Era ; Gradstein, Mark ; Lederman, Daniel

We present instrumental variables estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and GDP per capita. The increase in GDP per capita that ASEAN economies experienced during 1970–2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class in these countries. Econometric model estimates show that the impact of a rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on initial levels of GDP per capita. In the majority of ASEAN countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to GDP per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth for levels of ASEAN economies' GDP per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of GDP per capita a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth of GDP per capita in ASEAN. We show that investment is an important channel through which the income share of the middle class affects economic growth.