03. Journals

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 11

The Political Economy of Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement: A Comparative Analysis of Mexico and Uganda
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-03-11) Cuesta, Jose; Biggeri, Mario; Hernandez-Licona, Gonzalo; Aparicio, Ricardo; Guillen-Fernandez, Yedith
As part of the 2030 Agenda, much effort has been exerted in comparing multidimensional child poverty measures both technically and conceptually. Yet, few countries have adopted and used any of these measures in policymaking. This paper explores the reasons for this absence from a political economy perspective. It develops an innovative political economy framework for poverty measurement and a hypothesis whereby a country will only produce and use reliable and sustainable multidimensional child poverty (MDCP) measures if and only if three conditions coalesce: consensus, capacity and polity. We explore this framework with two relevant case studies, Mexico and Uganda. Both countries satisfy the capacity condition required to measure MDCP but only Mexico satisfies the other two conditions. Our proposed political economy framework is normatively relevant because it identifies the conditions that need to change across multiple contexts before the effective adoption and use of an MDCP measure becomes more likely.
The Devil is in the Detail: Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Africa in the Last Two Decades
(Oxford University Press, 2019-08) Clementi, Fabio; Fabiani, Michele; Molini, Vasco
The present paper, starting from evidence of low growth-to-poverty elasticity characterizing Africa, purports to identify the distributional changes that limited the pro-poor impact of the last two decades’ growth. Distributional changes that went undetected by standard inequality measures were not showing a clear pattern of inequality on the continent. By applying a new decomposition technique based on a non-parametric method—the ‘relative distribution’—we found a clear distributional pattern affecting almost all analysed countries. Nineteen out twenty four countries experienced a significant increase in polarization, particularly in the lower tail of the distribution, and this distributional change lowered the pro-poor impact of growth substantially. Without this unfavorable redistribution, poverty could have decreased in these countries by an additional five percentage points.
Who Benefited from Burundi’s Demobilization Program?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2018-06) D’Aoust, Olivia; Sterck, Olivier; Verwimp, Philip
This paper assesses the impact of the demobilization, reinsertion and reintegration program in post-war Burundi. Two major rebel groups benefited from cash and in-kind transfers, the CNDD-FDD from 2004, and the FNL from 2010. We combine panel data of households collected in 2006 and 2010 with official records from the National Commission for Demobilization, Reinsertion and Reintegration. We find that the cash payments received by FNL demobilized households had a positive impact on consumption, nonfood spending and investments. The program also generated positive spillovers in the villages where FNL combatants returned. Ex-combatants indeed spent a large part of their allowance on consumption goods and clothing, thereby generating a short-run economic boom in villages. However, the long-run evolution of consumption indicators is negative for CNDD-FDD households, as well as for villages where CNDD-FDD combatants returned, suggesting that the direct impact and the spillovers of the program vanished in the long run.
Optimal Targeting Under Budget Constraints in a Humanitarian Context
(Elsevier, 2018-01-05) Gigliarano, Chiara; Verme, Paolo
The paper uses Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and related indexes to determine the optimal targeting strategy of a food voucher program for refugees. Estimations focus on the 2014 food voucher administered by the World Food Program to Syrian refugees in Jordan using data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The paper shows how to use ROC curves to optimize targeting using coverage rates, budgets, or poverty lines as guiding principles to increase the overall efficiency of a program. As humanitarian organizations operate under increasing budget constraints and increasing demands for efficiency, the proposed approach addresses both concerns.
No Condition Is Permanent: Middle Class in Nigeria in the Last Decade
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-09-21) Corral Rodas, Paul Andres; Molini, Vasco
The economic debate on the existence and definition of the middle class has become particularly lively in many developing countries. Building on a recently developed framework called the Vulnerability Approach to Middle Class (VAMC) to define the middle class, this paper tries to estimate the size of the Nigerian middle class in a rigorous quantitative manner and to gauge its evolution over time. Using the VAMC method, the middle class group can be defined residually from the vulnerability analysis as those for which the probability of falling into poverty is below a certain threshold. The results show that there has been considerable improvement in the size of the Nigerian middle class from 13 per cent in 2003/4 to 19 per cent in 2012/13. However, the rate has been slower than expected given the high growth rates experienced in the country over the same period. The results also paint a heterogeneous picture of the middle class in Nigeria with large spatial differences. The southern regions have a higher share and experienced more growth of the middle class compared with the northern regions.
The Changing Structure of Africa’s Economies
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-06-01) Diao, Xinshen; Harttgen, Kenneth; McMillan, Margaret
Using data from the Groningen Growth and Development Center’s Africa Sector Database and the Demographic and Health Surveys, we show that much of Africa’s recent growth and poverty reduction has been associated with a substantive decline in the share of the labor force engaged in agriculture. This decline is most pronounced for rural females over the age of 25 who have a primary education; it has been accompanied by a systematic increase in the productivity of the labor force, as it has moved from low productivity agriculture to higher productivity services and manufacturing. We also show that, although the employment share in manufacturing is not expanding rapidly, in most of the low-income African countries the employment share in manufacturing has not peaked and is still expanding, albeit from very low levels. More work is needed to understand the implications of these shifts in employment shares for future growth and development in Africa south of the Sahara.
Transferring the Purchasing Role from International to National Organizations During the Scale-Up Phase of Performance-Based Financing in Cameroon
(Taylor and Francis, 2017-04-13) Sieleunou, Isidore; Turcotte-Tremblay, Anne-Marie; Yumo, Habakkuk Azinyui; Kouokam, Estelle; Taptue Fotso, Jean-Claude; Magne Tamga, Denise; Ridde, Valery
The World Bank and the government of Cameroon launched a performance-based financing (PBF) program in Cameroon in 2011. To ensure its rapid implementation, the performance purchasing role was sub-contracted to a consultancy firm and a nongovernmental organization, both international. However, since the early stage, it was agreed upon that this role would later be transferred to a national entity. This explanatory case study aims at analyzing the process of this transfer using Dolowitz and Marsh's framework. We performed a document review and interviews with various stakeholders (n = 33) and then conducted thematic analysis of interview recordings. Sustainability, ownership, and integration of the PBF intervention into the health system emerged as the main reasons for the transfer. The different aspects of transfer from international entities to a national body consisted of (1) the decision-making power, (2) the “soft” elements (e.g., ideas, expertise), and (3) the “hard” elements (e.g., computers, vehicles). Factors facilitating the transfer included the fact that it was planned from the start and the modification of the legal status of the national organization that became responsible for strategic purchasing. Other factors hindered the transfer, such as the lack of a legal act clarifying the conditions of the transfer and the lack of post-transition support agreements. The Cameroonian experience suggests that key components of a successful transfer of PBF functions from international to national organizations may include clear guidelines, co-ownership and planning of the transition by all parties, and post-transition support to new actors.
Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-02) Bettin, Giulia; Presbitero, Andrea F.; Spatafora, Nikola L.
This paper examines how international remittances are affected by structural characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, and adverse shocks in recipient economies. We exploit a novel, rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to seventy-nine developing countries over the period 2005–2011. We find that remittances are negatively correlated with the business cycle in recipient countries and in particular increase in response to adverse exogenous shocks, such as large terms-of-trade declines. This effect is stronger where the migrant communities have a larger share of newly arrived migrants. Finally, we show that recipient-country financial development is negatively associated with remittances, suggesting that remittances help alleviate credit constraints.
The Price Is Not Always Right: On the Impacts of Commodity Prices on Households (and Countries)
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2016-02) Lederman, Daniel
This paper provides an overview of the impact that one-time changes in commodity and other prices have on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncovers strong commodity dependence on both regions: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities, and they often also depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity price shocks. The article explores these effects with a review of the relevant literature. The authors study consumption and income responses, labor market responses, and spillovers across sectors. The paper provides evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies. Commodity price changes, Poverty and welfare impacts, Net consumers and net producers.
Economic Shocks and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2016-01) Hariri, Jacob Gerner; Bjørnskov, Christian; Justesen, Mogens K.
This article examines how economic shocks affect individual well-being in developing countries. Using the case of a sudden and unanticipated currency devaluation in Botswana as a quasi-experiment, we examine how this monetary shock affects individuals’ evaluations of well-being. We do so by using microlevel survey data, which— incidentally—were collected in the days surrounding the devaluation. The chance occurrence of the devaluation during the time of the survey enables us to use pretreatment respondents, surveyed before the devaluation, as approximate counterfactuals for post-treatment respondents, surveyed after the devaluation. Our estimates show that the devaluation had a large and significantly negative effect on individuals’ evaluations of subjective well-being. These results suggest that macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated currency devaluations, may have significant short-term costs in the form of reductions in people’s sense of well-being.