03. Journals

2,963 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 549

The Portfolio Theory of Inflation and Policy (In)Effectiveness: A Revisitation (Published online: 14 Sep 2021)

(Taylor and Francis, 2023-08-11) Bossone, Biagio

This article revisits the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), with a view to further articulating its findings and implications. The article adds to the micro-foundations of the PTI, framing more rigorously the role of global investors as international allocators of capital resources, and providing richer analysis of their interaction with macroeconomic policies at country level. The article explores how country credibility enters the capital allocation choice process of global investors and how global investor choices shape the space available to country policy making, determining the extent to which the effect of macro-policies dissipates into exchange rate depreciation and higher inflation.
What Makes Public Sector Data Valuable for Development?

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-04-14) Jolliffe, Dean ; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon ; Veerappan, Malarvizhi ; Kilic, Talip ; Wollburg, Philip

Data produced by the public sector can have transformational impacts on development outcomes through better targeting of resources, improved service delivery, cost savings, increased accountability, and more. Around the world, the amount of data produced by the public sector is increasing rapidly, but we argue the full potential of data to improve development outcomes has not been realized yet. We outline 12 features needed for data to generate greater value for development and present case studies substantiating these features. We argue that a key reason why the transformational value of data has not yet been realized is that suboptimal data—data not satisfying these 12 features—are being supplied. The features are that the data should be of adequate spatial and temporal coverage (complete, frequent, and timely), should be of high quality (accurate, comparable, and granular), should be easy to use (accessible, understandable, and interoperable), and should be safe to use (impartial, confidential, and appropriate).
Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Carbon Pricing

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-03-29) Vrolijk, Kasper ; Sato, Misato

A growing literature suggests that carbon emissions are most efficiently reduced by carbon pricing. The evidence base on the effectiveness of market-based mechanisms, however, faces three key limitations: studies often (a) predict, rather than evaluate effects, (b) show large difference in findings, and (c) cannot always infer causal relations. Quasi-experimental studies can address these challenges by using variation in policies over time, space, or entities. This paper systematically reviews this new literature, outlines the benefits and caveats of quasi-experimental methodologies, and verifies the reliability and value of quasi-experimental estimates. The overall evidence base documents a causal effect between carbon pricing and emission reductions, with ambiguous effects on economic outcomes, and there are important gaps and inconsistencies. This review underscores that estimates should be interpreted with care because of: (a) inappropriate choice of method, (b) incorrect implementation of empirical analysis (e.g., violate identifying assumptions), and (c) data limitations. More cross-learning across studies and use of novel empirical strategies is needed to improve the empirical evidence base going forward.
The Promise and Limitations of Information Technology for Tax Mobilization

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-20) Okunogbe, Oyebola ; Santoro, Fabrizio

Tax revenue in many low- and middle-income countries is inadequate for funding investments in public goods and human capital. With high levels of informality and limited state capacity, many tax authorities have difficulty determining the true tax base and collecting taxes efficiently and equitably. Tax authorities are increasingly adopting new technologies to improve administrative processes, reduce taxpayer compliance costs, and enhance their overall effectiveness. This paper reviews the recent literature on the use of technology for tax administration. It highlights the potential of technology to improve tax collection by helping to identify the tax base, monitor compliance, and facilitate compliance. It also identifies possible limitations to the use of technology arising from inadequate infrastructure and connectivity, lack of adoption or resistance by taxpayers and tax collectors, lack of institutional mainstreaming, and an unsupportive regulatory environment.
Income and Wealth Inequality in Hong Kong, 1981–2020: The Rise of Pluto-Communism?

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-08) Piketty, Thomas ; Yang, Li

The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution and institutional roots of Hong Kong's growing economic inequality and political cleavages. By combining multiple sources of data (household surveys, fiscal data, wealth rankings, national accounts) and methodological innovations, two main findings are obtained. First, he evidence suggests a very large rise in income and wealth inequality in Hong Kong over the last four decades. Second, based on the latest opinion poll data, business elites, who carry disproportionate weight in Hong Kong's Legislative Council, are found to be more likely to vote for the pro-establishment camp (presumably to ensure that policies are passed that protect their political and economic interests). This paper argues that the unique alliance of government and business elites in a partially democratic political system is the plausible institutional root of Hong Kong's rising inequality and political cleavages.
Services, Jobs, and Economic Development in Africa

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-08-09) Baccini, Leonardo ; Fiorini, Matteo ; Hoekman, Bernard ; Sanfilippo, Marco

This article presents data and analyzes the structure of employment in 13 African economies at the administrative unit level, with a focus on the role of services. We provide two novel pieces of evidence. First, we present a descriptive snapshot of changes in the composition of employment over time and across geographies. This reveals evidence of structural transformation toward services and service-related occupations at subnational level and provides a fine-grained overview of who works in services and where and how this has changed over time. Second, we provide correlations between services and economic development, using per capita nightlight luminosity as a proxy. We document (1) a strong positive association between high skills services and economic development; (2) substantial heterogeneity across industries within services; and (3) a mediating role of market conditions and technology in the relation between services and economic development. Overall, our work highlights an important role of services activities for employment, skills, and economic development in Africa.
A Puzzle with Missing Pieces: Explaining the Effectiveness of World Bank Development Projects

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-07-12) Ashton, Louise ; Friedman, Jed ; Goldemberg, Diana ; Hussain, Mustafa Zakir ; Kenyon, Thomas ; Khan, Akib ; Zhou, Mo

The identification of key determinants of aid effectiveness is a long-standing question in the development community. This paper reviews the literature on aid effectiveness at the project level and then extends the inquiry in a variety of dimensions with new data on World Bank investment project financing. It confirms that the country institutional setting and quality of project supervision are associated with project success, as identified previously. However, many aspects of the development project cycle, especially project design, have been difficult to measure and therefore under-investigated. The paper finds that project design, as proxied by the estimated value added of design staff, the presence of prior analytic work, and other specially collected measures, is a significant predictor of ultimate project success. These factors generally grow in predictive importance as the income level of the country rises. The results also indicate that a key determinant of the staff's contribution is their experience with previous World Bank projects, but not other characteristics such as age, education, or country location. Key inputs to the project production process associated with subsequent performance are not captured in routine data systems, although it is feasible to do so. Further, the conceptualization and measurement of the success of project-based aid should be revisited by evaluative bodies to reflect a project's theorized contribution to development outcomes.
Do Government Incentives to Promote R&D Increase Private R&D Investment?

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-05-18) Choi, Jieun

R&D incentives are a popular policy option to encourage private R&D worldwide. This paper provides an updated survey of R&D incentives’ effect on private R&D investment, including evaluations from developing countries. It assesses the pattern of R&D incentives, and reviews recent literature on the efficacy of these incentives. It reveals that R&D incentives generally increase private R&D, but to a varying extent depending on incentive types, countries’ income levels, industry and firm characteristics, and the design and implementation of the incentives. Overall, variability of the effect on private R&D is greater for direct incentives than indirect incentives. The effect of indirect incentives is found to be smaller in developing countries than developed countries, contrary to the predictions of growth theory. This paper investigates the potential reasons for these findings and summarizes policy implications for governments considering upgrading or adopting R&D incentives.
Locally financed and outside financed regional fiscal multipliers

(Elsevier, 2022-04) Pennings, Steven

The size of regional fiscal multipliers determines the efficacy of fiscal stimulus, the costs of fiscal austerity and whether countercyclical fiscal policy is more effective at the federal or local level. This paper studies fiscal multipliers in regions of a monetary union—US states, Eurozone members, or countries with a hard exchange-rate peg—and how multipliers are affected by the way spending is financed: local deficit financing, local tax financing or outside financing (federal or foreign aid). I present analytical and quantitative government purchase and transfer multipliers using a New Keynesian model consistent with estimated transfer multipliers in Pennings (2021), focusing on the persistence of the fiscal shock. I find that at business-cycle frequencies, financing has little effect on impact multipliers: outside-financed multipliers are only about 0.07–0.16 larger than local deficit-financed multipliers. This suggests efforts to enable local countercyclical fiscal policy may be a partial substitute for greater fiscal centralization or foreign financing.
Explaining Differences in the Returns to R&D in Argentina: The Role of Contextual Factors

(Taylor and Francis, 2022-01-31) Arza, Valeria ; Cirera, Xavier ; López, Emanuel ; Colonna, Agustina

Argentinean firms’ investments in R&D are well below its regional peers. One potential explanation for this fact is the existence of low and heterogeneous returns for these investments. This paper uses novel microdata to estimate the returns to R&D and analyse the role of contextual factors in shaping its heterogeneity. The findings confirm that returns are indeed heterogeneous and depend on some important factors related to the market context, such as measures of uncertainty; and the knowledge context, such as knowledge spillovers. Acknowledging that heterogeneity of returns depends on firms’ context is crucial for designing innovation policies to boost private R&D returns.