03. Journals

2,963 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 24

The Determinants of Child Mortality Reduction in the Middle East and North Africa

(Taylor and Francis, 2016-09-21) Iqbal, Farrukh ; Kiendrebeogo, Youssouf

Although child mortality rates have declined all across the developing world over the past 40 years, they have fallen the most in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We investigate the causes of this through an econometric model that differs from previous studies in using the change in child mortality, rather than its level, as the dependent variable. We show that the process of child mortality decline has been characterized by convergence, whereby countries with higher levels of initial child mortality have experienced faster declines than those with lower levels. In addition, we find that public spending on health, growth rates of income and levels of caloric adequacy are robust determinants of the change in child mortality over time. Neither initial mortality status nor caloric adequacy is likely to remain as important for the MENA region in the future as they have been in the past. The region has been benefitting less and less from the convergence momentum conferred by high initial child mortality as its mortality levels have declined over time and this will continue into the future. With regard to caloric adequacy, the region is unlikely to experience significant improvements in the future as it has already achieved a high level of food sufficiency. Accordingly, most countries in the region must look to achieving more rapid income growth and higher rates of appropriately targeted public spending on health in order to achieve further child mortality reductions in the future.
Aging and Income Convergence in Europe: A Survey of the Literature and Insights from a Demographic Projection Exercise

(Elsevier, 2015-11-25) Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús ; Loichinger, Elke ; Vincelette, Gallina

The current and projected low fertility levels for Europe and the continuous increases in life expectancy imply that the region will go through an unprecedented process of population aging, leading to sizable changes in the age structure of European societies. After reviewing the existing literature on the role played by demographic change as a determinant of economic growth and income convergence, with a focus on the European experience, we analyze the quantitative impact of the projected changes in the age and education composition of the labor force. Using newly available demographic projections, we show that the current demographic trends are expected to cause a slowdown in the speed of income convergence across European countries. Our projection exercise suggests that policies aimed exclusively at improving labor force participation do not appear to be sufficient to counteract the negative effects of aging on income convergence. Instead, we show that reducing the educational attainment gap between Central and Eastern European member states and the rest of the European Union in addition to increasing labor force participation leads to an accelerated pace of income convergence.
Population, Poverty, and Climate Change

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2014-01-24) Das Gupta, Monica

This literature review focuses on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. Developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, but the brunt of the fallout will be borne by developing countries in forms such as lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Although carbon emissions per capita have leveled off in developed countries, they are projected to rise rapidly in developing countries because of economic growth and population growth. Unfortunately, the latter will rise most notably in the poorest countries, combining with climate change to slow poverty reduction. These countries have many incentives to lower fertility. Previous studies indicate that in high fertility settings, fertility decline facilitates economic growth and poverty reduction. It also reduces the pressure on livelihoods and frees resources that can be used to cope with climate change. Moreover, slowing population growth helps avert some of the projected global warming, which will benefit the poorest countries far more than it will benefit developed countries that lie at higher latitudes and/or have more resources to cope with climate change. Natural experiments indicate that family-planning programs are effective and highly pro-poor in their impact. While the rest of the world wrestles with the complexities of reducing emissions, the poorest countries will benefit from simple programs to lower fertility.
Does Urbanization Affect Rural Poverty? Evidence from Indian Districts

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2013-06) Cali, Massimiliano ; Menon, Carlo

Although a high rate of urbanization and a high incidence of rural poverty are two distinct features of many developing countries, there is little knowledge of the effects of the former on the latter. Using a large sample of Indian districts from the 1983–1999 period, we find that urbanization has a substantial and systematic poverty-reducing effect in the surrounding rural areas. The results obtained through an instrumental variable estimation suggest that this effect is causal in nature and is largely attributable to the positive spillovers of urbanization on the rural economy rather than to the movement of the rural poor to urban areas. This rural poverty-reducing effect of urbanization is primarily explained by increased demand for local agricultural products and, to a lesser extent, by urban-rural remittances, the rural land/ population ratio, and rural nonfarm employment.
Is Foreign Aid Fungible? Evidence from the Education and Health Sectors

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2013-06) Van de Sijpe, Nicolas

This paper adopts a new approach to the issue of foreign aid fungibility. Unlike most existing empirical studies, I employ panel data that contain information on the specific purposes for which aid is given. This approach enables me to link aid that is provided for education and health purposes to recipient public spending in these sectors. In addition, I distinguish between aid flows that are recorded on a recipient's budget and those that are not recorded, and I illustrate how the previous failure to differentiate between on- and off-budget aid produces biased estimates of fungibility. Sector program aid is the measure of on-budget aid, whereas technical cooperation serves as a proxy for off-budget aid. I show that the appropriate treatment of off-budget aid leads to lower fungibility estimates than those reported in many previous studies. Specifically, I find that in both sectors and across a range of specifications, technical cooperation, which is the largest component of total education and health aid, leads to, at most, a small displacement of recipient public expenditures.
Urbanization and Economic Growth in Indonesia : Good News, Bad News, and (Possible) Local Government Mitigation

(Taylor and Francis, 2013-01-08) Lewis, Blane D.

Time series analysis for Indonesia over the period 1960-2009 suggests that the level of urbanization is positively associated with economic growth but that the rate of change of urbanization is negatively correlated with growth of economic output. A sub-national dynamic panel investigation provides additional evidence of the positive and negative level and rate effects, respectively. The panel analysis also implies that the harmful impact of urban population growth is linked to insufficient local public infrastructure spending. Local governments that invest more heavily in infrastructure are better able to cope with the apparent detrimental effects of rapid urbanization on economic growth.
The Odds of Achieving the MDGs

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2012-08) Go, Delfin S. ; Quijada, José Alejandro

Three questions are frequently raised about the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Where do developing countries stand? What factors affect their rate of progress? Can lagging countries achieve these goals in the few years remaining until 2015? This paper examines these questions and takes a closer look at the variation in the rate of progress among developing countries. We argue that answers from the available data are surprisingly positive. In particular, three-quarters of developing countries are on target or close to being on target for all of the MDGs. Among the countries that are falling short, the average gap for the top half is about 10 percent. For those that are on target, or close to it, solid economic growth, policies, and institutions have been the key factors in their success. With improved policies and stronger growth, many countries that are close to being on target could achieve these targets by 2015 or soon after.
Inequality of Opportunity in Egypt

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2012-06-01) Hassine, Nadia Belhaj

The article evaluates the contribution of inequality of opportunity to earnings inequality in Egypt and analyzes its evolution across three time periods and different population groups. It provides parametric and nonparametric estimates of a lower bound for the degree of inequality of opportunity for wage and salary workers. On average, the contribution of opportunity-shaping circumstances to earnings inequality declined from 22 percent in 1988 to 15 percent in 2006. Levels of inequality of opportunity were fairly stable while earnings differentials widened markedly, leading to a decline in the share of inequality attributable to opportunities. Father's background and geographic origins had the largest effect on earnings, although the impact of mother's education has risen in recent years. The degree of inequality of opportunity did not differ significantly by gender or rural–urban area, although the incidence was lower for men and for rural areas. The results indicate an increase in inequality of opportunity across age groups, but there is some evidence that opportunity differentials have been declining for the oldest generation.
The Contours and Possibilities of Open Development

( 2011-09) Pradhan, Sanjay ; Odugbemi, Sina

Is the idea of open development another vague, endlessly elastic term capturing what is merely a passing mood, a fad? The goal of this issue of Development Outreach is to strike a resounding No. We will define open development in a clear and robust manner; and we will show that, rather than being a passing fancy, the idea of open development actually captures an emerging paradigm shift in how development is being done. We are also going to show that this new paradigm will endure. Before we define what open development is, however, we need to understand what the vanishing development paradigm has been.
Demographics and Development Policy

( 2011-04) Bloom, David E. ; Canning, David

By late 2011 there will be more than 7 billion people in the world, with 8 billion in 2025 and 9 billion before 2050. New technologies and institutions, and a lot of hard work have enabled us to avoid widespread Malthusian misery. Global income per capita has increased 150 percent since 1960, outpacing the growth of population. But we cannot be sure that incomes will continue to grow.