03. Journals

3,120 items available

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Telescoping Error in Recalled Food Consumption: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Ethiopia
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-09-14) Abate, Gashaw T.; de Brauw, Alan; Gibson, John; Hirvonen, Kalle; Wolle, Abdulazize
Telescoping errors occur if survey respondents misdate events from outside the reference period and include them in their recall. Concern about telescoping influenced the design of early Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys, which used a two-visit interview format to bound food consumption recall. This design fell out of favor although not for evidence-based reasons. To measure the extent of telescoping bias on food consumption measures, a survey experiment was conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, randomly assigning households to either a two-visit bounded recall or a single visit unbounded recall. The average value of reported food consumption is 16 percent higher (95 percent CI: 7.4–25.9) in the unbounded single visit recall relative to the two-visit bounded recall. Most of the error is explained by difference in reported spending on less frequently consumed, protein-rich foods, so apparent food security indicators based on household diet diversity are likely overstated with unbounded recall.
Tackling psychosocial and capital constraints to alleviate poverty
(Springer Nature, 2022-04-27) Bossuroy, Thomas; Goldstein, Markus; Karimou, Bassirou; Karlan, Dean; Kazianga, Harounan; Pariente, William; Premand, Patrick; Thomas, Catherine C.; Udry, Christopher; Vaillant, Julia; Wright, Kelsey A.
Many policies attempt to help extremely poor households build sustainable sources of income. Although economic interventions have predominated historically 1,2, psychosocial support has attracted substantial interest 3,4,5, particularly for its potential cost-effectiveness. Recent evidence has shown that multi-faceted ‘graduation’ programs can succeed in generating sustained changes 6,7. Here we show that a multi-faceted intervention can open pathways out of extreme poverty by relaxing capital and psychosocial constraints. We conducted a four-arm randomized evaluation among extremely poor female beneficiaries already enrolled in a national cash transfer government program in Niger. The three treatment arms included group savings promotion, coaching and entrepreneurship training, and then added either a lump-sum cash grant, psychosocial interventions, or both the cash grant and psychosocial interventions. All three arms generated positive effects on economic outcomes and psychosocial well-being, but there were notable differences in the pathways and the timing of effects. Overall, the arms with psychosocial interventions were the most cost-effective, highlighting the value of including well-designed psychosocial components in government-led multi-faceted interventions for the extreme poor.
Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic
(Elsevier, 2021-09) Decerf, Benoit; Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Mahler, Daniel G.; Sterck, Olivier
We evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-o between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, we compare estimates of LYs and PYs across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, we estimate that, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) had generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, a comparison of these baseline results with mortality estimates in a counterfactual herd immunity scenario suggests that welfare losses would be greater in the latter in most countries.
Invitations and Incentives: A Qualitative Study of Behavioral Nudges for Primary Care Screenings in Armenia
(Springer Nature, 2020-12) Gong, Estelle; Chukwuma, Adanna; Ghazaryan, Emma; de Walque, Damien
Non-communicable diseases account for a growing proportion of deaths in Armenia, which require early detection to achieve disease control and prevent complications. To increase rates of screening, demand-side interventions of personalized invitations, descriptive social norms, labeled cash transfers, and conditional cash transfers were tested in a field experiment. Our complementary qualitative study explores factors leading to the decision to attend screening and following through with that decision, and experiences with different intervention components. An individual’s decision to screen depends on 1) the perceived need for screening based on how they value their own health and perceive hypertension and diabetes as a harmful but manageable condition, and 2) the perceived utility of a facility-based screening, and whether screening will provide useful information on disease status or care management and is socially acceptable. Following through with the decision to screen depends on their knowledge of and ability to attend screenings, as well as any external motivators such as an invitation or financial incentive. Personalized invitations from physicians can prompt individuals to reconsider their need for screening and can, along with financial incentives, motivate individuals to follow through with the decision to screen. The effect of descriptive social norms in invitations should be further studied. Efforts to increase preventive screenings as an entry point into primary care in Armenia may benefit from implementation of tailored messages and financial incentives.
Caloric Intake and Energy Expenditures in India
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-07-18) Eli, Shari; Li, Nicholas
Total energy expenditures for the Indian population between 1983 and 2012 are estimated to shed light on the debate concerning falling measured caloric intake during the period (A. Deaton and J. Drèze. 2009. “Food and Nutrition in India: Facts and Interpretations.” Economic and Political Weekly 44(7): 42–65). Anthropometric, time-use, and detailed employment surveys are used to estimate the separate components of total energy expenditure related to metabolism and physical activity levels. Despite a significant drop in adult physical activity levels, total energy expenditures are flat overall between 1983 and 2012. Rising metabolic requirements due to increases in weight dampened the effect of falling activity levels on total energy expenditure. In addition, the 10 percent decline in the population share of children in the period raised average total energy expenditures considerably as children have much lower metabolic requirements and activity levels than adults.
Girl Empower – A Gender Transformative Mentoring and Cash Transfer Intervention to Promote Adolescent Wellbeing: Impact Findings from a Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial in Liberia
(Elsevier, 2020-04) Hallman, Kelly; Ozler, Berk; Guimond, Marie-France; Kelvin, Elizabeth A.; Rogers, Marian; Karnley, Esther
We evaluated Girl Empower – an intervention that aimed to equip adolescent girls with the skills to make healthy, strategic life choices and to stay safe from sexual abuse using a cluster-randomized controlled trial. Girl Empower led to sustained improvements in several important domains, including sexual and reproductive health, but did not reduce sexual violence among the target population.
Early Rainfall Shocks and Later-Life Outcomes: Evidence from Colombia
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02) Carrillo, Bladimir
This paper uses birth cohorts spanning several hundred locations over 40 years to examine the long-term consequences of in utero exposure to abnormal rainfall events in Colombia. The identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in extreme droughts or floods experienced by individuals while in utero in their birth location. The results indicate that individuals prenatally exposed to adverse rainfall shocks are more likely to report serious mental illness, have fewer years of schooling, display increased rates of illiteracy, and are less likely to work. These results are larger in magnitude for individuals born in areas with a higher risk of malaria, which is consistent with the notion that exposure to infectious and parasitic diseases may play an important role.
Preventing More 'Missing Girls': A Review of Policies to Tackle Son Preference
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02) Kumar, Sneha; Sinha, Nistha
In parts of Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Balkans, son preference is strong enough to trigger significant levels of sex selection, resulting in the excess mortality of girls and skewing child sex ratios in favor of boys. Every year, an estimated 1.8 million girls go “missing” because of the widespread use of sex selective practices in these regions. The pervasive use of such practices is reflective of the striking inequities girls face immediately, and it also has possible negative implications for efforts to improve women's status in the long term. Recognizing this as a public policy concern, governments have employed direct measures such as banning the use of prenatal sex selection technology, and providing financial incentives to families that have girls. This study reviews cross-country experiences to take stock of the direct interventions used and finds no conclusive evidence that they are effective in reducing the higher mortality risk for girls. In fact, bans on the use of sex selection technology may inadvertently worsen the status of the very individuals they intend to protect, and financial incentives to families with girls offer only short-term benefits at most. Instead, what seems to work are policies that indirectly raise the value of daughters. The study also underscores the paucity of causal studies in this literature.