03. Journals

2,963 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

Sub-collections of this Collection

Items in this collection

Now showing 1 - 10 of 60

Income and Wealth Inequality in Hong Kong, 1981–2020: The Rise of Pluto-Communism?

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-10-08) Piketty, Thomas ; Yang, Li

The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution and institutional roots of Hong Kong's growing economic inequality and political cleavages. By combining multiple sources of data (household surveys, fiscal data, wealth rankings, national accounts) and methodological innovations, two main findings are obtained. First, he evidence suggests a very large rise in income and wealth inequality in Hong Kong over the last four decades. Second, based on the latest opinion poll data, business elites, who carry disproportionate weight in Hong Kong's Legislative Council, are found to be more likely to vote for the pro-establishment camp (presumably to ensure that policies are passed that protect their political and economic interests). This paper argues that the unique alliance of government and business elites in a partially democratic political system is the plausible institutional root of Hong Kong's rising inequality and political cleavages.
The Long-term Impacts of International Migration: Evidence from a Lottery

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2018-02-01) Gibson, John ; McKenzie, David ; Rohorua, Halahingano ; Stillman, Steven

We examine the long-term impacts of international migration by comparing immigrants who had successful ballot entries in a migration lottery program, and first moved almost a decade ago, with people who had unsuccessful entries into those same ballots. The long-term gain in income is found to be similar in magnitude to the gain in the first year despite migrants upgrading their education and changing their locations and occupations. This results in large sustained benefits to their immediate family who have substantially higher consumption, durable asset ownership, savings, and dietary diversity. In contrast we find no measurable impact on extended family.
The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN

(Elsevier, 2018-01-05) Brueckner, Markus ; Dabla-Norris, Era ; Gradstein, Mark ; Lederman, Daniel

We present instrumental variables estimates of the relationship between the share of income accruing to the middle class and GDP per capita. The increase in GDP per capita that ASEAN economies experienced during 1970–2010 significantly contributed to a higher share of income accruing to the middle class in these countries. Econometric model estimates show that the impact of a rise of the middle class on economic growth depends on initial levels of GDP per capita. In the majority of ASEAN countries, a rise of the middle class that is unrelated to GDP per capita growth would have had a significant negative effect on economic growth for levels of ASEAN economies' GDP per capita in 1970. In contrast, for recent values of GDP per capita a rise of the middle class would positively contribute to growth of GDP per capita in ASEAN. We show that investment is an important channel through which the income share of the middle class affects economic growth.
Prices, Engel Curves, and Time-Space Deflation: Impacts on Poverty and Inequality in Vietnam

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-06-01) Gibson, John ; Le, Trinh ; Kim, Bonggeun

Many developing countries lack spatially disaggregated price data. Some analysts use “no-price” methods by using a food Engel curve to derive the deflator as that needed for nominally similar households to have equal food shares in all regions and time periods. This method cannot be tested in countries where it is used as a spatial deflator since they lack suitable price data. In this paper, data from Vietnam are used to test this method against benchmarks provided by multilateral price indexes calculated from repeated spatial price surveys. Deflators from a food Engel curve appear to be a poor proxy for deflators obtained from multilateral price indexes. To the extent that such price indexes reliably compare real living standards over time and space, these results suggest that estimates of the level, location, and change in poverty and inequality would be distorted if the Engel method deflator was used in their stead.
Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-02) Bettin, Giulia ; Presbitero, Andrea F. ; Spatafora, Nikola L.

This paper examines how international remittances are affected by structural characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, and adverse shocks in recipient economies. We exploit a novel, rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to seventy-nine developing countries over the period 2005–2011. We find that remittances are negatively correlated with the business cycle in recipient countries and in particular increase in response to adverse exogenous shocks, such as large terms-of-trade declines. This effect is stronger where the migrant communities have a larger share of newly arrived migrants. Finally, we show that recipient-country financial development is negatively associated with remittances, suggesting that remittances help alleviate credit constraints.
Book Review of Managing Globalization in the Asian Century: Essays in Honour of Prema-Chandra Athukorala

(Taylor and Francis, 2017) Rahardja, Sjamsu

Asia is a region of economic miracles, and this festschrift for the esteemed development economist Prema-Chandra Athukorala highlights a major driver of Asia’s success: globalization. Economic progress in Asia cannot be separated from globalization’s role in industrializing the region’s agrarian economies. Most countries in Asia have, to varying degrees, embraced globalization by opening up to foreign direct investment (to stimulate markets and to transfer know-how) and facilitating the growth of export-oriented industries.
The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

(Taylor and Francis, 2016-06-30) Mulder, Christian ; Perrelli, Roberto ; Duarte Rocha, Manuel

This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs‏. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities.
Product Relatedness and Firm Exports in China

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2015-09-29) Poncet, Sandra ; Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe

We propose the first evaluation using micro-level data of the gains from the consistency of activities with a local comparative advantage. Using firm-level data from Chinese customs over the 2000–6 period, we investigate the relationship between the export performance of firms and how their products relate to local comparative advantage. Our key indicator measures the density of the links between a product and the local product space. Hence, it combines information on the intrinsic relatedness of a good with information on the local pattern of specialization. Our results indicate that exports grow faster for goods that have denser links with those currently produced in the firm's locality. The density of links between products seems to yield export-enhancing spillovers. However, we show that this positive effect of product relatedness on export performance is mainly limited to ordinary trade activities and domestic firms. It is also stronger for more productive firms, suggesting that spillover diffusion may be hindered by insufficient absorptive capacity.
Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2015-09-29) Héricourt, Jérôme ; Poncet, Sandra

In this paper, we study how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigate whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the 2000–6 period. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that firms' decision to begin exporting and the exported value decrease for destinations with a higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development seems to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide micro-founded evidence suggesting that the existence of well-developed financial markets allows firms to hedge exchange rate risk. The results also support a key role of financial constraints in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.
Financial Structure and Economic Development : A Reassessment

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2013-09) Cull, Robert ; Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli ; Lin, Justin Yifu

In this article the authors use quantile regressions to assess the relationship between economic and financial development at each percentile of the distribution of economic development. Thus; the quantile regressions provide information on how the associations between economic development and both bank and securities market development change as countries grow richer.