03. Journals

2,963 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 41

Strategic Reassurance in Institutional Contests: Explaining China's Creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

(Taylor and Francis, 2018-07-05) Chen, Zheng ; Liu, Yanchuan

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been widely conceived as a Chinese effort to promote reforms of global financial governance. While the existing literature of contested multilateralism tends to focus on the problem of threat credibility, this article highlights the necessity of strategic reassurance in institutional contests. To facilitate incremental reforms of the existing order, rising powers like China need not only to pose credible challenge towards established institutions, but also to demonstrate their benign intentions and commitment to future cooperation. Besides revealing strength and resolve, the creation of a new multilateral regime helps rising powers to signal their self-restraints and reassure other powers. Consequently, the institutional configuration of new multilateral organizations involves a trade-off between the dual needs for threats and reassurance. Chinese behaviors in creating the AIIB can be explained through this framework.
The Impact of Rural Pensions in China on Labor Migration

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2018-02-01) Eggleston, Karen ; Sun, Ang ; Zhan, Zhaoguo

We study the impact of China’s new rural pension program on promoting migration of labor by applying a regression discontinuity analysis to this new pension program. The results reveal a perceptible difference in labor migration among adult children whose parents are just above and below the age of pension eligibility: The adult children with a parent just attaining the pension-eligible age are more likely to be labor migrants compared with those with a parent just below the pension-eligible age. We also find that with a pension-eligible parent, the adult children are more likely to have off-farm jobs. These abrupt changes in household behavior at the cutoff suggest that these households are credit constrained. In addition, we find that the pension’s effect on migration is greater among adult children with a parent in poor health; pension-eligible elderly report that they are more likely to use inpatient services when needed and less likely to rely on adult children for care when they are ill. These results suggest that (expectations regarding) providing care for elderly parents has constrained labor migration from China's rural areas to some extent, and that the new rural pension program has helped to relax this constraint.
Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi

(American Economic Association, 2017-11) Mattoo, Aaditya ; Mishra, Prachi ; Subramanian, Arvind ; Mattoo, Aaditya

This paper estimates the effect of China's exchange rate changes on exports of developing countries in third markets. The degree of competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role in the identification strategy. The strategy exploits variation across exporters, importers, products and time—afforded both by disaggregated trade data and bilateral exchange rates—to estimate this "competitor country effect." There is robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant effect. A 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports at the product level on average by about 1.5-2.5 percent.
Market Facilitation by Local Government and Firm Efficiency: Evidence from China

(Elsevier, 2017-02) Cull, Robert ; Xu, Lixin Colin ; Yang, Xi ; Zhou, Li-An ; Zhu, Tian

We use data from a large survey of Chinese firms to investigate whether local government efforts to facilitate market development improve firm efficiency. Both government provision of information about products, markets, and innovation and government assistance in arranging loans are positively associated with firm efficiency, and those private firms with weak access to and knowledge of financial, input, and product markets benefit most from such assistance. These patterns are robust across multiple estimation approaches. Our examination of the determinants of local government facilitation also suggests that it gravitates toward promoting efficiency, though there are also indications that rent-seeking may play a role. Our evidence is consistent with the notion that government facilitation can help some firms overcome market failures in the early stages of a country's private sector development. Though causality is difficult to establish, we argue that changing fiscal dynamics that forced local governments to become increasingly self-reliant in generating revenue, and a government promotion system based on local economic performance, were key motivating factors for market facilitation by local government officials.
Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-02) Bettin, Giulia ; Presbitero, Andrea F. ; Spatafora, Nikola L.

This paper examines how international remittances are affected by structural characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, and adverse shocks in recipient economies. We exploit a novel, rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to seventy-nine developing countries over the period 2005–2011. We find that remittances are negatively correlated with the business cycle in recipient countries and in particular increase in response to adverse exogenous shocks, such as large terms-of-trade declines. This effect is stronger where the migrant communities have a larger share of newly arrived migrants. Finally, we show that recipient-country financial development is negatively associated with remittances, suggesting that remittances help alleviate credit constraints.
The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

(Taylor and Francis, 2016-06-30) Mulder, Christian ; Perrelli, Roberto ; Duarte Rocha, Manuel

This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs‏. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities.
Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2015-09-29) Héricourt, Jérôme ; Poncet, Sandra

In this paper, we study how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigate whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the 2000–6 period. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that firms' decision to begin exporting and the exported value decrease for destinations with a higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development seems to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide micro-founded evidence suggesting that the existence of well-developed financial markets allows firms to hedge exchange rate risk. The results also support a key role of financial constraints in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.
The Impact of Financial Literacy Training for Migrants

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2014-01-23) Gibson, John ; McKenzie, David ; Zia, Bilal

Remittances are a major source of external financing for many developing countries, but the cost of sending them remains high in many migration corridors. Despite efforts to lower these costs by offering new products and developing cost-comparison information sources, many new and promising inexpensive remittance methods have relatively low adoption rates. The lack of financial literacy among migrants has been identified as one potentially important barrier to competition and new product adoption. This paper presents the results of a randomized experiment designed to measure the impact of providing financial literacy training to migrants. Training appears to increase financial knowledge and information-seeking behavior and reduces the risk of switching to costlier remittance products, but it does not result in significant changes in the frequency of remitting or in the remitted amount.
Financial Structure and Economic Development : A Reassessment

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2013-09) Cull, Robert ; Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli ; Lin, Justin Yifu

In this article the authors use quantile regressions to assess the relationship between economic and financial development at each percentile of the distribution of economic development. Thus; the quantile regressions provide information on how the associations between economic development and both bank and securities market development change as countries grow richer.
The Challenges of Bankruptcy Reform

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2012-08) Cirmizi, Elena ; Klapper, Leora ; Uttamchandani, Mahesh

The 2008 financial crisis was followed by a global economic downturn, a credit crunch, and a reduction in cross-border lending, trade finance, and foreign direct investment, which adversely affected businesses around the world. The consequent increase in the number of firm insolvencies in the corporate sector highlights the need for commercial bankruptcy laws to liquidate efficiently unviable firms and reorganize viable ones, so as to maximize the total value of proceeds received by creditors, shareholders, employees, and other stakeholders. The authors summarize the theoretical and empirical literature on bankruptcy design, discuss the challenges of introducing and implementing bankruptcy reforms, and present examples of how policymakers are trying to take advantage of the current economic downturn as an opportunity to engage in meaningful reform of the bankruptcy process. They also review the main principles of efficient insolvency laws and bankruptcy procedures.