03. Journals

2,963 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

Sub-collections of this Collection

Items in this collection

Now showing 1 - 10 of 12

Beyond Univariate Measurement of Spatial Autocorrelation : Disaggregated Spillover Effects for Indonesia

(Taylor and Francis, 2013-08-02) Day, Jennifer ; Lewis, Blane

Most studies that incorporate spatial effects use a very limited number of spatial variables in the growth model, e.g. growth spillovers or infrastructure impacts of neighbouring regions. This article innovates on previous work in spatial econometrics by differentiating among spatial contributions to economic development; e.g. infrastructure, capital, human capital, land and labour. We explore whether including more spatial effects can improve the viability of a growth model, and also test the hypothesis that the differential spatial effects of various important predictor variables are discernible for Indonesia. We develop two econometric estimations based on the Durbin representation of the Spatial Error Model. We take advantage of a panel data set spanning Indonesia's post-decentralization years, 2003–2008. The first model uses a modified fixed effects formulation, and the second uses a maximum likelihood estimator. The two sets of models are reported together to serve as a check to the robustness of the results. Multiple estimation methods were attempted, including (to control for potential endogeneity) two-stage least squares (2SLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings suggest that various types of spillover effects affect a place by different processes, and accounting for this variety of processes in growth models improves the efficacy of those models. Our findings suggest that, for Indonesian districts, the influence of neighbours extends beyond GRDP per capita levels and growth, and also includes demographics, human capital and infrastructure components. We also demonstrate empirically that accounting for spatial effects in analysis of GRDP per capita can improve growth-model estimations.
Urbanization and Economic Growth in Indonesia : Good News, Bad News, and (Possible) Local Government Mitigation

(Taylor and Francis, 2013-01-08) Lewis, Blane D.

Time series analysis for Indonesia over the period 1960-2009 suggests that the level of urbanization is positively associated with economic growth but that the rate of change of urbanization is negatively correlated with growth of economic output. A sub-national dynamic panel investigation provides additional evidence of the positive and negative level and rate effects, respectively. The panel analysis also implies that the harmful impact of urban population growth is linked to insufficient local public infrastructure spending. Local governments that invest more heavily in infrastructure are better able to cope with the apparent detrimental effects of rapid urbanization on economic growth.
Demographics and Development Policy

( 2011-04) Bloom, David E. ; Canning, David

By late 2011 there will be more than 7 billion people in the world, with 8 billion in 2025 and 9 billion before 2050. New technologies and institutions, and a lot of hard work have enabled us to avoid widespread Malthusian misery. Global income per capita has increased 150 percent since 1960, outpacing the growth of population. But we cannot be sure that incomes will continue to grow.
Demystifying Success : The New Structural Economics Approach

( 2011-04) Lin, Justin Yifu

It took a Scottish moral philosopher with no training in economics to set the course of modern economics and challenge researchers to answer what is arguably the most fundamental question in public policy, namely: what is the recipe for growth, job creation, and poverty reduction?
Zombie Economics : How Dead Ideas Still Walk Among Us

( 2011-04) Quiggin, John

John Quiggin is an Australian economist and professor at the University of Queensland. He has also held academic positions at the Australian National University and James Cook University. Best known for his work on utility theory, Quiggin is among the top 500 economists in the world according to IDEA S/RePEc. Quiggin authors an Australian blog, and is a regular contributor to Crooked Timber. He also writes a fortnightly column in The Australian Financial Review.
Pathways To Development : What We Know and Don't Know

( 2011-04) Nallari, Raj

Sixty years of development experience tells us that the pathways to development are varied, guided by different visions, different strategies, and different definitions of progress. If sustained growth is the measure, then progress has also been mixed. Between 1990 and 2008, the developing economies have grown nearly twice as fast on average as the developed countries. But over the past six decades, only a dozen countries have sustained their growth for twenty years or more because of frequent shocks, redistributive conflicts, and difficulty in sustaining reform efforts over time.
To Mitigate or to Adapt : Is that the Question? Observations on an Appropriate Response to the Climate Change Challenge to Development Strategies

(World Bank, 2010-08-02) Shalizi, Zmarak ; Lecocq, Franck

Climate change is a new and important challenge to development strategies. In light of the current literature a framework for assessing responses to this challenge is provided. The presence of climate change makes it necessary to at least review development strategies—even in apparently nonclimate-sensitive and nonpolluting sectors. There is a need for an integrated portfolio of actions ranging from avoiding emissions (mitigation) to coping with impacts (adaptation) and to consciously accepting residual damages. Proactive (ex ante) adaptation is critical, but subject to risks of regrets when the magnitude or location of damages is uncertain. Uncertainty on location favors nonsite-specific actions, or reactive (ex post) adaptation. However, some irreversible losses cannot be compensated for. Thus, mitigation might be in many cases the cheapest long-term solution to climate change problems and the most important to avoid thresholds that may trigger truly catastrophic consequences. To limit the risks that budget constraints prevent developing countries from financing reactive adaptation—especially since climate shocks might erode the fiscal base—“rainy-day funds” may have to be developed within countries and at the global level for transfer purposes. Finally, more research is required on the impacts of climate change, on modeling the interrelations between mitigation and adaptation, and on operationalizing the framework.
On Analyzing the World Distribution of Income

(World Bank, 2010-02-15) Atkinson, Anthony B. ; Brandolini, Andrea

Consideration of world inequality should cause reexamination of the key concepts underlying the welfare approach to measuring income inequality and its relation to measuring poverty. This reexamination leads to exploration of a new measure that allows poverty and inequality to be considered in the same framework, incorporates different approaches to measuring inequality, and allows varied expressions of the cost of inequality. Applied to the world distribution of income for 1820–1992, the new measure provides different perspectives on the evolution of global inequality.
Agricultural Employment Trends in Asia and Africa

(World Bank, 2010-02-01) Headey, Derek ; Bezemer, Dirk ; Hazell, Peter B.

Contrary to conventional economic theories, the relationship between income growth and agricultural employment is extremely diverse, even among regions starting from similar levels of development, such as Asia and Africa. Due to its labor-intensive Green Revolution and strong farm–nonfarm linkages, Asia's development path is mostly characterized by fast growth with relatively slow agricultural exits. In contrast to Asia, urban biased policies, low rural population density, and high rates of population growth have led a number of African countries down a path of slow economic growth with surprisingly rapid agricultural exits. Despite this divergence both continents now face daunting employment problems. Asia appears to be increasingly vulnerable to rising inequality, slower job creation, and shrinking farm sizes, suggesting that Asian governments need to refocus on integrating smallholders and lagging regions into increasingly commercialized rural and urban economies. Africa, in contrast, has yet to achieve its own Green Revolution, which would still be a highly effective tool for job creation and poverty reduction. However, the diversity of its endowments and its tighter budget constraints mean that agricultural development strategies in Africa need to be highly context specific, financially sustainable, and more evidence-based.
Gender, Poverty and Demography

(World Bank, 2009-11-30) Buvinic, Mayra ; Gupta, Monica Da ; Casabonne, Ursula

Much has been written on gender inequality and how it affects fertility and mortality outcomes as well as economic outcomes. What is not well understood is the role of gender inequality, embedded in the behavior of the family, the market, and society, in mediating the impact of demographic processes on economic outcomes. This article reviews the empirical evidence on the possible economic impacts of gender inequalities that work by exacerbating demographic stresses associated with different demographic scenarios and reducing the prospects of gains when demographic conditions improve. It defines four demographic scenarios and discusses which public policies are more effective in each scenario in reducing the constraints that gender inequality imposes on poverty reduction