03. Journals
2,963 items available
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These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.
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Publication
Relative Measures of Genocide Mortality: Benefits and Methodological Considerations of Using Siblings' Survival Data
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-31)When studying events such as the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda, for many researchers the first order question seems to be to find the best available data and methods to estimate the death toll, i.e. to provide a number of deaths in absolute terms. This makes sense since the staggering number of victims over a very short period is one of the most shocking – and defining – features of such an historical event. This short note argues that while looking for an absolute death toll number is certainly an important and worthwhile research exercise, analyzing relative mortality numbers also provides valuable insights that might not be available when focusing on absolute numbers. By relative mortality I mean comparing mortality across different population segments such as by gender, by age group or socioeconomic categories (e.g. education levels, urban/rural background). Specifically, I will use the examples of the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia (1975-1978) and the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda to illustrate this argument and will rely on earlier studies to show how the sibling mortality schedule – a module collecting information about the date of birth, the sex and if relevant the date of death of all siblings of the respondent – contained in most of the well-known and commonly used Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) can be exploited to obtain reasonable and useful estimates of relative mortality. -
Publication
Minimum Age Regulation and Child Labor: New Evidence from Brazil
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-12-19)This study presents new evidence on the effects of minimum age regulations obtained from a natural experiment. In 1998, a constitutional reform in Brazil changed the minimum working age from 14 to 16. The reform was the legislative counterpart of a broad set of measures taken by a government strongly committed to eliminating child labor. This article investigates the role of the minimum working age in this context. The setting allows for improvements upon past approaches based on comparing employment rates of children at different ages. A discontinuity in treatment is exploited, namely the fact that only children who turned 14 after the enactment date (mid-December 1998) are banned from work. According to regression discontinuity and difference-in-discontinuity designs, the null hypothesis of no overall effect of the ban cannot be rejected. Throughout the methods and specifications, an employment effect in a confidence interval of [−0.06,0.03] (in percentage points) is found. A detailed heterogeneity analysis is performed and provides suggestive evidence of diminishing child labor trends in regions characterized by higher labor inspection intensity, which is interpreted as a trace of there being a law. However, contrary to what has been claimed in recent studies, the law seems not to have produced sizeable effects overall, at least in the short run. Power calculations and extensive sensitivity checks support these conclusions. -
Publication
Changing Pedagogy to Improve Skills in Preschools: Experimental Evidence from Peru
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-12-11)Changing pedagogical practices is a promising, cost-effective avenue for improving education in developing countries, especially when done without changing current inputs such as teachers and instruction time. This article presents the results of a randomized evaluation of a program that aimed at changing the pedagogical approach used to teach the existing national mathematics curriculum. The program provides tools to regular preschool teachers to use an inquiry- and problem-based learning approach to tailor instruction to preschoolers in Peru. The results show an improvement of overall mathematics outcomes, which persist for some content areas even one year after the program ended. In contrast to results from previous research that suggest mathematics programs are biased along gender and socioeconomic lines, there is no evidence of differential effects by gender, language spoken at home, or proxies for socioeconomic status. Results also imply persistent stronger impacts on students whose teachers have university degrees. -
Publication
Estimating the Welfare Costs of Reforming the Iraq Public Distribution System: A Mixed Demand Approach
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)Through three decades of conflict, food rations delivered through the public distribution system (PDS) have remained the largest safety net among Iraq’s population. Reforming the PDS continues to be politically challenging, notwithstanding the system’s import dependence, economic distortions, and unsustainable fiscal burden. The oil price decline of mid-2014 and recent efforts to rebuild and recover have put PDS reform back on the agenda. The government needs to find an effective way to deliver broad benefits from a narrow economic base reliant on oil. The study described here adopts a mixed demand approach to analyzing household consumption patterns for the purpose of assessing plausible reform scenarios and estimating the direction and scale of the associated welfare costs and transfers. It finds that household consumption of PDS items is relatively inelastic to changes in price, particularly among the poor. The results suggest that any one-shot reform will have sizeable adverse welfare impacts and will need to be preceded by a well-targeted compensation mechanism. To keep welfare constant, subsidy removal in urban areas, for example, would require the poorest and richest households to be compensated for, respectively, 74 per cent and nearly 40 per cent of their PDS expenditures. -
Publication
How to Target Households in Adaptive Social Protection Systems? Evidence from Humanitarian and Development Approaches in Niger
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)The methods used to identify the beneficiaries of programs aiming to address persistent poverty and shocks are subject to frequent policy debates. Relying on panel data from Niger, this report simulates the performance of various targeting methods that are widely used by development and humanitarian actors. The methods include proxy-means testing (PMT), household economy analysis (HEA), geographical targeting, and combined methods. Results show that PMT performs more effectively in identifying persistently poor households, while HEA shows superior performance in identifying transiently food insecure households. Geographical targeting is particularly efficient in responding to food crises, which tend to be largely covariate. Combinations of geographical, PMT, and HEA approaches may be used as part of an efficient and scalable adaptive social protection system. Results motivate the consolidation of data across programs, which can support the application of alternative targeting methods tailored to program-specific objectives. -
Publication
Social Protection in Contexts of Fragility and Forced Displacement: Introduction to a Special Issue
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06)Effective social protection is increasingly as essential to supporting affected populations in situations of protracted instability and displacement. Despite the growing use of social protection in these settings, there is comparatively little rigorous research on what works, for whom, and why. This special issue contributes by adding seven high-quality studies that raise substantially our understanding of the role of social protection in fragile contexts and in settings of forced displacement and migration. Together, these studies fill knowledge gaps, help support informed decision-making by policy-makers and practitioners, and demonstrate that impact evaluation and the analysis of social protection in challenging humanitarian settings are possible. The studies provide evidence that design choices in implementation, such as which population to target, choice of transfer modality or which messages are delivered with programs, can make a substantial difference in the realization of positive benefits among vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the findings of the studies underline the relevance of tailoring program components to populations, which may benefit more or less from traditional program implementation models. -
Publication
Twenty Years of Wage Inequality in Latin America
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-12-06)This article documents an inverse U-shape in the evolution of wage inequality in Latin America since 1995, with a sharp reduction starting in 2002. The Gini coefficient of wages increased from 42 to 44 between 1995 and 2002 and declined to 39 by 2015. Between 2002 and 2015, the 90/10 log hourly earnings ratio decreased by 26 percent. The decline since 2002 was characterized by rising wages across the board, but especially at the bottom of the wage distribution in each country. Triggered by a rapid expansion of educational attainment, the wages of college and high school graduates fell relative to the wages of workers with only primary education. The premium for labor market experience also fell significantly. However, the compression of wages was not entirely driven by changes in the wage structure across skill groups. Two-thirds of the decline in the variance of wages took place within skill groups. Changes in the sectoral, occupational, and formal/informal composition of jobs matter for the process of reduction in inequality, but they do not fully account for the fall in within-skill variance. Evidence based on longitudinal matched employer-employee administrative data suggests that an important driver was falling wage dispersion across firms. -
Publication
Challenges and Opportunities in the Continuity of Care for Hypertension: A Mixed-Methods Study Embedded in a Primary Health Care Intervention in Tajikistan
(Springer Nature, 2019-12-03)Hypertension, a significant risk factor for ischemic heart disease and other chronic conditions, is the third-highest cause of death and disability in Tajikistan. Thus, ensuring the early detection and appropriate management of hypertension is a core element of strategies to improve population health in Tajikistan. For a strategy to be successful, it should be informed by the causes of gaps in service delivery and feasible solutions to these challenges. The objective of this study was to undertake a systematic assessment of hypertension case detection and retention in care within Tajikistan’s primary health care system, and to identify challenges and appropriate solutions. We review the results for the case detection stage of the cascade of care, which had the most significant gaps. Of the half a million people with hypertension in Khatlon and Sogd Oblasts (administrative regions), about 10% have been diagnosed in Khatlon and only 5% in Sogd. Barriers to case detection include misinformation about hypertension, ambiguous protocols, and limited delivery capacity. Solutions identified to these challenges were mobilizing faith-based organizations, scaling up screening through health caravans, task-shifting to increase provider supply, and introducing job aids for providers. Translating findings on discontinuities in care for hypertension and other chronic diseases to actionable policy insights can be facilitated by collaboration with local stakeholders, triangulation of data sources, and identifying the intersection between the feasible and the effective in defining solutions to service delivery challenges. -
Publication
Quality of Care for Children with Severe Disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(Springer Nature, 2019-12)Despite the almost universal adoption of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of sick children under the age of five in low- and middle-income countries, child mortality remains high in many settings. One possible explanation of the continued high mortality burden is lack of compliance with diagnostic and treatment protocols. We test this hypothesis in a sample of children with severe illness in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). -
Publication
Implications of Demographic, Religious, and Enrollment Trends for the Footprint of Faith-Based Schools Globally
(Taylor and Francis, 2019-11-25)Faith-based schools play an important role today in the provision of education globally. Are the schools likely to continue to play such a role in the future? If so, where is that role likely to be most prominent? This paper considers these questions on the basis of long-term demographic, religious, and school enrollment trends. The trends suggest that enrollment in faith-based schools will continue to grow rapidly, as has been the case over the last few decades. But there will also be a fundamental shift, with a rising concentration of students in faith-based schools located in Africa. This may have implications given the learning crisis affecting the continent.