03. Journals

2,963 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?

(Springer Nature, 2022-03-02) Lakner, Christoph ; Gerszon Mahler, Daniel ; Negre, Mario ; Prydz, Espen Beer

The goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and working towards a more equal distribution of incomes are part of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. Using data from 166 countries comprising 97.5 percent of the world’s population, we simulate scenarios for global poverty from 2019 to 2030 under various assumptions about growth and inequality. We use different assumptions about growth incidence curves to model changes in inequality and rely on a machine-learning algorithm called model-based recursive partitioning to model how growth in GDP is passed through to growth as observed in household surveys. When holding within-country inequality unchanged and letting GDP per capita grow according to World Bank forecasts and historically observed growth rates, our simulations suggest that the number of extreme poor (living on less than 1.90 dollars/day) will remain above 600 million in 2030, resulting in a global extreme poverty rate of 7.4 percent. If the Gini index in each country decreases by 1 percent per year, the global poverty rate could reduce to around 6.3 percent in 2030, equivalent to 89 million fewer people living in extreme poverty. Reducing each country’s Gini index by 1 percent per year has a larger impact on global poverty than increasing each country’s annual growth 1 percentage point above forecasts. We also study the impact of COVID-19 on poverty and find that the pandemic may have driven around 60 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. If the pandemic increased the Gini index by 2 percent in all countries, then more than 90 million may have been driven into extreme poverty in 2020.
Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

(Elsevier, 2021-09) Decerf, Benoit ; Ferreira, Francisco H.G. ; Mahler, Daniel G. ; Sterck, Olivier

We evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-o between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, we compare estimates of LYs and PYs across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, we estimate that, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) had generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, a comparison of these baseline results with mortality estimates in a counterfactual herd immunity scenario suggests that welfare losses would be greater in the latter in most countries.
An Individual-Based Index of Multidimensional Poverty for Low- and Middle-Income Countries

(Taylor and Francis, 2021-08-27) Burchi, Francesco ; Espinoza-Delgado, Jose ; Montenegro, Claudio E. ; Rippin, Nicole

This paper proposes a new index of multidimensional poverty, called the Global Correlation Sensitive Poverty Index (G-CSPI), which has three interesting features. First, it encompasses three dimensions: decent work, education and access to drinking water and sanitation, which largely overlap with the list of ideal dimensions obtained by expanding the Constitutional Approach, although it does not include direct health measures. Second, it uses a distribution-sensitive measure that can also be decomposed into the three poverty components: incidence, intensity and inequality. Finally, the G-CSPI is an individual-based, rather than household-based index, although restricted to individuals 15–65 years of age. It is thus able to detect intra-household differences in poverty among members within that age-range. To have a full picture of multidimensional poverty at the country level, it should then be complemented by specific poverty measures for children and the elderly. Being centered on individuals and sensitive to inequality, the G-CSPI is coherent with the overarching principle of the 2030 Agenda “leaving no one behind”. Using recent estimates of the G-CSPI for 104 countries, the empirical analysis reveals that the index is highly robust to different specifications, and that, as expected, fragile countries experience the largest levels of poverty.
The Equity Effects of Cadasters in Colombia

(Taylor & Francis, 2021-08-01) Cuesta, Jose ; Pico, Julieth

Well-functioning cadasters help to secure property rights, make economies perform more efficiently and promote environmental conservation. However, their equity effects are less known. Our study addresses how and to what extent cadasters, and reforms to them, affect equity. The authors address this question through an ex-ante simulation methodology using static partial equilibrium fiscal incidence analysis. We apply it to a recent expansion of the cadaster in Colombia, designed as a deliberate equalization strategy in one of the world’s most unequal countries. This expansion will increase the collection of property taxes paid by previously informal households by about US 22.1 million dollars and their net worth by about US 4,993 million dollars (or about 3.2 and 4.9 percent of their baseline value). However, the expansion of the cadaster will also increase the incidence of poverty (by 0.25 percent points), the poverty gap (by 0.20 percent points) and inequality (by 0.12 percent points of the Gini index), unless generous compensatory interventions are applied. We conclude that equity effects of cadasters are complex and multiple. Policy-wide, compensatory measures are needed to alleviate the immediate impacts on poverty and inequality after the increase in taxes that vulnerable and poor households will likely face following a cadaster reform.
Invitations and Incentives: A Qualitative Study of Behavioral Nudges for Primary Care Screenings in Armenia

(Springer Nature, 2020-12) Gong, Estelle ; Chukwuma, Adanna ; Ghazaryan, Emma ; de Walque, Damien

Non-communicable diseases account for a growing proportion of deaths in Armenia, which require early detection to achieve disease control and prevent complications. To increase rates of screening, demand-side interventions of personalized invitations, descriptive social norms, labeled cash transfers, and conditional cash transfers were tested in a field experiment. Our complementary qualitative study explores factors leading to the decision to attend screening and following through with that decision, and experiences with different intervention components. An individual’s decision to screen depends on 1) the perceived need for screening based on how they value their own health and perceive hypertension and diabetes as a harmful but manageable condition, and 2) the perceived utility of a facility-based screening, and whether screening will provide useful information on disease status or care management and is socially acceptable. Following through with the decision to screen depends on their knowledge of and ability to attend screenings, as well as any external motivators such as an invitation or financial incentive. Personalized invitations from physicians can prompt individuals to reconsider their need for screening and can, along with financial incentives, motivate individuals to follow through with the decision to screen. The effect of descriptive social norms in invitations should be further studied. Efforts to increase preventive screenings as an entry point into primary care in Armenia may benefit from implementation of tailored messages and financial incentives.
Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply

(Elsevier, 2020-08) Fukase, Emiko ; Martin, Will

In recent years, developing countries have been growing much more rapidly than the industrial countries. This growth convergence has potentially very important implications for world food demand and for world agriculture because of the increase in demand for agricultural resources as diets shift away from starchy staples and towards animal-based products and fruits and vegetables. Using a resource-based measure of food production and consumption that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with animal-based foods, this article finds per capita demand growth to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario to 2050 from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, which assumes continued income convergence, the article finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be about a third greater than under a hypothetical scenario of all countries growing at the same rate (78 percent). As convergence increases the growth of food supply by less than demand, it appears to be a driver of upward pressure on world food prices.
Is Predicted Data a Viable Alternative to Real Data?

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-06) Fujii, Tomoki ; van der Weide, Roy

It is costly to collect the household- and individual-level data that underlie official estimates of poverty and health. For this reason, developing countries often do not have the budget to update estimates of poverty and health regularly, even though these estimates are most needed there. One way to reduce the financial burden is to substitute some of the real data with predicted data by means of double sampling, where the expensive outcome variable is collected for a subsample and its predictors for all. This study finds that double sampling yields only modest reductions in financial costs when imposing a statistical precision constraint in a wide range of realistic empirical settings. There are circumstances in which the gains can be more substantial, but these denote the exception rather than the rule. The recommendation is to rely on real data whenever there is a need for new data and to use prediction estimators to leverage existing data.
Intra-Household Labour Allocation, Migration, and Remittances in Rural El Salvador

(Taylor and Francis, 2020-05) Acosta, Pablo

Migration can affect labor participation decisions back home, either by stimulating work to replace foregone labor, or reducing it through the role of remittances. Using evidence from a rural panel for El Salvador with a comprehensive module on agricultural income shocks, this study finds that migration and remittances generate only minor labor reallocation effects within households. Contradicting previous evidence based on cross section data, no impact is registered for off-farm labor supply. However, remittances and migration tend to increase female participation and hours worked in agricultural activities, and reduce time dedicated to off-farm and domestic activities. No major effects are found on self-employment.
Predicting Dynamic Patterns of Short-Term Movement

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02) Milusheva, Sveta

Short-term human mobility has important health consequences, but measuring short-term movement using survey data is difficult and costly, and use of mobile phone data to study short-term movement is only possible in locations that can access the data. Combining several accessible data sources, Senegal is used as a case study to predict short-term movement within the country. The focus is on two main drivers of movement—economic and social—which explain almost 70 percent of the variation in short-term movement. Comparing real and predicted short-term movement to measure the impact of population movement on the spread of malaria in Senegal, the predictions generated by the model provide estimates for the effect that are not significantly different from the estimates using the real data. Given that the data used in this paper are often accessible in other country settings, this paper demonstrates how predictive modeling can be used by policy makers to estimate short-term mobility.
Understanding Nonresponse Rates: Insights from 600,000 Opinion Surveys

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02) Reyes, Germán

Despite the central role of surveys in empirical research, academics have not paid enough attention to the factors that affect response rates. This is especially concerning since survey response rates—of both household and opinion surveys—have been declining over time (Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan, 2015), which might lead to distorted survey results. This paper explores how the underlying design of each survey—such as its length and the day of the week in which the survey was conducted—affects the response rates of the survey.