03. Journals

2,963 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 13

Trust to Pay? Tax Morale and Trust in Africa

(Taylor and Francis, 2021-02-14) Kouamé, Wilfried A.K.

Although low tax morale hits developing countries hardest, little is known about its determinants in those countries. This paper examines the impact of trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood on individual tax morale in four African countries. First, the paper provides theoretical foundations of such a relationship. Further, the paper uses the World Value Survey to estimate the effects of trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood on individual tax morale. The identification strategy employs the instrumental variables method and relies on historical data on the slave trade and the literature on the cultural heritage of trust. The paper finds that trust in public institutions and the neighbourhood are associated with tax morale in Algeria, Ghana, Morocco, and Nigeria. The findings are robust to an alternative identification strategy, additional controls, and a falsification test.
Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply

(Elsevier, 2020-08) Fukase, Emiko ; Martin, Will

In recent years, developing countries have been growing much more rapidly than the industrial countries. This growth convergence has potentially very important implications for world food demand and for world agriculture because of the increase in demand for agricultural resources as diets shift away from starchy staples and towards animal-based products and fruits and vegetables. Using a resource-based measure of food production and consumption that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with animal-based foods, this article finds per capita demand growth to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario to 2050 from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, which assumes continued income convergence, the article finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be about a third greater than under a hypothetical scenario of all countries growing at the same rate (78 percent). As convergence increases the growth of food supply by less than demand, it appears to be a driver of upward pressure on world food prices.
Fresh Money for Health? The (False?) Promise of 'Innovative Financing' for Health in Malawi

(Taylor and Francis, 2018-10-29) Chansa, Collins ; Mwase, Takondwa ; Matsebula, Thulani Clement ; Kandoole, Priscilla ; Revill, Paul ; Makumba, John Bosco ; Lindenow, Magnus

Since 2013, the government of Malawi has been pursuing a number of health reforms, which include plans to increase domestic financing for health through “innovative financing.” As part of these reforms, Malawi has sought to raise additional tax revenue through existing and new sources with a view to earmarking the revenue generated to the health sector. In this article, a systematic approach to assessing feasibility and quantifying the amount of revenue that could be generated from potential sources is devised and applied. Specifically, the study applies the Delphi forecasting method to generate a qualitative assessment of the potential for raising additional tax revenues from existing and new sources, and the gross domestic product (GDP)-based effective tax rate forecasting method to quantify the amount of tax revenue that would be generated. The results show that an annual average of 0.30 USD, 0.46 USD, and 0.63 USD per capita could be generated from taxes on fuel and motor vehicle insurance over the period 2016/2017–2021/2022 under the low, medium, and high scenarios, respectively. However, the proposed tax reform has not been officially adopted despite wide consultations and generation of empirical evidence on the revenue potential. The study concludes is that revenue generation potential of innovative financing for health mechanisms in Malawi is limited, and calls for efforts to expand fiscal space for health to focus on efficiency-enhancing measures, including strengthening of governance and public financial management.
The Long-term Impacts of International Migration: Evidence from a Lottery

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2018-02-01) Gibson, John ; McKenzie, David ; Rohorua, Halahingano ; Stillman, Steven

We examine the long-term impacts of international migration by comparing immigrants who had successful ballot entries in a migration lottery program, and first moved almost a decade ago, with people who had unsuccessful entries into those same ballots. The long-term gain in income is found to be similar in magnitude to the gain in the first year despite migrants upgrading their education and changing their locations and occupations. This results in large sustained benefits to their immediate family who have substantially higher consumption, durable asset ownership, savings, and dietary diversity. In contrast we find no measurable impact on extended family.
The Health Gains, Financial Risk Protection Benefits, and Distributional Impact of Increased Tobacco Taxes in Armenia

(Taylor and Francis, 2018-01) Postolovska, Iryna ; Lavado, Rouselle ; Tarr, Gillian ; Verguet, Stephane

The majority of Armenian adult males smoke, yet tobacco taxes in Armenia are among the lowest in Europe and Central Asia. Increasing taxes on tobacco is one of the most cost-effective public health interventions, but many opponents often cite regressivity as an argument against tobacco taxation. We use a mixed-methods approach to study the potential regressivity of tobacco taxation and the extent to which the regressivity argument hindered increases in tobacco taxation in Armenia. First, we pursued an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to assess the health, financial, and distributional consequences (by consumption quintile) of increases in the excise tax on cigarettes in Armenia. We simulated a hypothetical price hike leading to a tax rate of about 75% of the retail price of cigarettes, which would be fully passed on to consumers. Second, we conducted a series of stakeholder interviews to examine the importance of the regressivity argument and identify the factors that allowed tobacco tax increases to be adopted as public policy in Armenia. We show that increased excise taxes would bring large health and financial benefits to Armenian households. Half of tobacco-related premature deaths and 27% of associated poverty cases averted would be concentrated among the bottom 40% of the population. Though regressivity was raised as a concern at the initial stages of the policy adoption process, our qualitative stakeholder analysis indicates that the recent accession to the Eurasian Economic Union and the fiscal constraints faced by the government created a window of opportunity for tobacco taxation to be placed on the policy agenda and adopted as government policy, and the ECEA findings were an important input into the process.
No Condition Is Permanent: Middle Class in Nigeria in the Last Decade

(Taylor and Francis, 2017-09-21) Corral Rodas, Paul Andres ; Molini, Vasco ; Oseni, Gbemisola

The economic debate on the existence and definition of the middle class has become particularly lively in many developing countries. Building on a recently developed framework called the Vulnerability Approach to Middle Class (VAMC) to define the middle class, this paper tries to estimate the size of the Nigerian middle class in a rigorous quantitative manner and to gauge its evolution over time. Using the VAMC method, the middle class group can be defined residually from the vulnerability analysis as those for which the probability of falling into poverty is below a certain threshold. The results show that there has been considerable improvement in the size of the Nigerian middle class from 13 per cent in 2003/4 to 19 per cent in 2012/13. However, the rate has been slower than expected given the high growth rates experienced in the country over the same period. The results also paint a heterogeneous picture of the middle class in Nigeria with large spatial differences. The southern regions have a higher share and experienced more growth of the middle class compared with the northern regions.
Prices, Engel Curves, and Time-Space Deflation: Impacts on Poverty and Inequality in Vietnam

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-06-01) Gibson, John ; Le, Trinh ; Kim, Bonggeun

Many developing countries lack spatially disaggregated price data. Some analysts use “no-price” methods by using a food Engel curve to derive the deflator as that needed for nominally similar households to have equal food shares in all regions and time periods. This method cannot be tested in countries where it is used as a spatial deflator since they lack suitable price data. In this paper, data from Vietnam are used to test this method against benchmarks provided by multilateral price indexes calculated from repeated spatial price surveys. Deflators from a food Engel curve appear to be a poor proxy for deflators obtained from multilateral price indexes. To the extent that such price indexes reliably compare real living standards over time and space, these results suggest that estimates of the level, location, and change in poverty and inequality would be distorted if the Engel method deflator was used in their stead.
When Winners Feel Like Losers: Evidence from an Energy Subsidy Reform

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2017-06-01) Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar ; Cunha, Barbara ; Trezzi, Riccardo

In 2011 the Government of El Salvador implemented a reform to the liquefied gas (LPG) subsidy that increased the welfare of households in all but the top two deciles of the income distribution. However, the reform turned out to be rather unpopular, including among winners. This paper relies on ad hoc household surveys conducted before the implementation and in the following two-and-a-half years to test which factors help explain the puzzle. The analysis uses probit regressions to show that misinformation (a negativity bias by which people with limited information inferred negative consequences), mistrust of the government's ability to implement the policy, and political priors explain most of the (un)satisfaction before implementation. Perceptions improved gradually—and significantly so—over time when the subsidy reception induced households to update their initial priors, although political biases remained significant throughout the entire period. The results suggest several implications with respect to policy reforms in cases where agents have limited information.
Lessons from 20 Years of Capacity Building for Health Systems Thinking

(Taylor and Francis, 2016-08-24) Reich, Michael R. ; Yazbeck, Abdo S. ; Berman, Peter ; Bitran, Ricardo ; Bossert, Thomas ; Escobar, Maria-Luisa ; Hsiao, William C. ; Johansen, Anne S. ; Samaha, Hadia ; Shaw, Paul ; Yip, Winnie

In 2016, the Flagship Program for improving health systems performance and equity, a partnership for leadership development between the World Bank and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and other institutions, celebrates 20 years of achievement. Set up at a time when development assistance for health was growing exponentially, the Flagship Program sought to bring systems thinking to efforts at health sector strengthening and reform. Capacity-building and knowledge transfer mechanisms are relatively easy to begin but hard to sustain, yet the Flagship Program has continued for two decades and remains highly demanded by national governments and development partners. In this article, we describe the process used and the principles employed to create the Flagship Program and highlight some lessons from its two decades of sustained success and effectiveness in leadership development for health systems improvement.
Striving for Balance in Economics: Towards a Theory of The Social Determination of Behavior

(Elsevier, 2016-06) Hoff, Karla ; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

This paper is an attempt to broaden economic discourse by importing insights into human behavior not just from psychology, but also from sociology and anthropology. Whereas in standard economics the concept of the decision-maker is the rational actor, and in early work in behavioral economics it is the quasi-rational actor influenced by the context of the moment of decision, in some recent work in behavioral economics, the decision-maker could be called the enculturated actor. This actor's preferences, perception, and cognition are subject to two deep social influences: (a) the social contexts to which he has become exposed and, especially, accustomed; and (b) the cultural mental models—including categories, identities, narratives, and worldviews—that he uses to process information. The paper traces how these factors shape behavior through the endogenous determination of preferences and the lenses through which individuals see the world—their perception and interpretation of situations. The paper offers a tentative taxonomy of the social determinants of behavior and describes the results of controlled and natural experiments that only a broader view of these determinants can plausibly explain. The perspective suggests more realistic models of human behavior for explaining outcomes and designing policies.