03. Journals

2,963 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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How to Target Households in Adaptive Social Protection Systems? Evidence from Humanitarian and Development Approaches in Niger

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-12-06) Schnitzer, Pascale

The methods used to identify the beneficiaries of programs aiming to address persistent poverty and shocks are subject to frequent policy debates. Relying on panel data from Niger, this report simulates the performance of various targeting methods that are widely used by development and humanitarian actors. The methods include proxy-means testing (PMT), household economy analysis (HEA), geographical targeting, and combined methods. Results show that PMT performs more effectively in identifying persistently poor households, while HEA shows superior performance in identifying transiently food insecure households. Geographical targeting is particularly efficient in responding to food crises, which tend to be largely covariate. Combinations of geographical, PMT, and HEA approaches may be used as part of an efficient and scalable adaptive social protection system. Results motivate the consolidation of data across programs, which can support the application of alternative targeting methods tailored to program-specific objectives.
Predicting Entrepreneurial Success is Hard: Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria

(Elsevier, 2019-11) McKenzie, David ; Sansone, Dario

We compare the absolute and relative performance of three approaches to predicting outcomes for entrants in a business plan competition in Nigeria: Business plan scores from judges, simple ad hoc prediction models used by researchers, and machine learning approaches. We find that i) business plan scores from judges are uncorrelated with business survival, employment, sales, or profits three years later; ii) a few key characteristics of entrepreneurs such as gender, age, ability, and business sector do have some predictive power for future outcomes; iii) modern machine learning methods do not offer noticeable improvements; iv) the overall predictive power of all approaches is very low, highlighting the fundamental difficulty of picking competition winners.
Education is Forbidden: The Effect of the Boko Haram Conflict on Education in North-East Nigeria

(Elsevier, 2019-11) Bertoni, Eleonora ; Di Maio, Michele ; Molini, Vasco ; Nistico, Roberto

This paper quantifies the impact of the Boko Haram conflict on various educational outcomes of individuals living in North-East Nigeria during the period 2009–2016. Using individual panel fixed-effects regressions and exploiting over-time and cross-village variation in conflict intensity, we show that conflict reduces school enrollment. The negative effect is larger for children who are no longer of mandatory school age. We do not find differential effects by gender, religion, or type of residential location. Additional results from a difference-in-differences estimation strategy indicate that conflict reduces the years of education completed.
Leaving, Staying or Coming Back? Migration Decisions During the Northern Mali Conflict

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-10) Hoogeveen, Johannes G. ; Rossi, Mariacristina ; Sansone, Dario

This paper uses a unique data set to analyse the migration dynamics of refugees, returnees and, internally displaced people from the Northern Mali conflict. Individuals were interviewed monthly using mobile phones. Our results cast light on the characteristics of these three groups before and after displacement. In addition, we test how employment and security were related to migration status, as well as the willingness to go back home. Individuals who were employed while displaced were less willing to go back to the North, while those who owned a gun were more likely to plan to go back. Additional indicators of personal safety played a lesser role.
The Role of Social Ties in Factor Allocation

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10) Beck, Ulrik ; Bjerge, Benedikte ; Fafchamps, Marcel

We investigate whether social structure helps or hinders factor allocation using unusually rich data from the Gambia. Evidence indicates that land available for cultivation is allocated unequally across households; and that factor transfers are more common between neighbors, co-ethnics, and kinship-related households. Does this lead to the conclusion that land inequality is due to flows of land between households being impeded by social divisions? To answer this question, a novel methodology that approaches exhaustive data on dyadic flows from an aggregate point of view is introduced. Land transfers lead to a more equal distribution of land and to more comparable factor ratios across households in general. But equalizing transfers of land are not more likely within ethnic or kinship groups. In conclusion, ethnic and kinship divisions do not hinder land and labor transfers in a way that contributes to aggregate factor inequality. Labor transfers do not equilibrate factor ratios across households. But it cannot be ruled out that they serve a beneficial role, for example, to deal with unanticipated health shocks.
Psychic versus Economic Barriers to Vaccine Take-Up: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Nigeria

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10) Sato, Ryoko ; Takasaki, Yoshito

This paper experimentally evaluates the relative importance of psychic costs of tetanus vaccination compared to monetary costs among women in rural Nigeria. We compare vaccine take-up between two conditions to receive cash incentives: clinic attendance vs. vaccine take-up. Because the only difference between these two conditions is whether a woman was required to receive a vaccine upon arrival at the clinic, the difference in clinic attendance between these two groups captures the psychic costs of vaccination. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find no evidence for significant psychic costs. Priming about disease severity increases the perceived severity of disease, but not vaccine take-up. Monetary costs strongly affect vaccination decisions.
Competing Priorities: Women’s Microenterprises and Household Relationships

(Elsevier, 2019-09) Friedson-Ridenour, Sophia ; Pierotti, Rachael S.

Recent studies have suggested that women’s business decisions are influenced by members of their household, especially their spouse, and that these intrahousehold dynamics contribute to gender gaps in entrepreneurship outcomes. This in-depth qualitative study among microentrepreneurs in urban Ghana sought to understand the connections between women’s businesses and their households’ management of economic resources. The findings show that women’s business decisions are influenced by: 1) a desire to reinforce their partner’s responsibilities as a primary provider; 2) attempts to fulfil normative expectations of meeting the daily basic-needs of the family; and 3) a need to prepare for long-term security. To reinforce their husband’s responsibilities as a provider, women hid income and savings, and sometimes explicitly limited business growth. To ensure their ability to smooth household consumption and respond to emergencies, women prioritized savings over business investment. And, to plan for their long-term security, women opted for cautious business investment, instead maintaining pressure on their partner to meet current needs and investing in children and property for the future. Previous studies document gender differences in microenterprise business management. This research builds on those studies by examining how intrahousehold inequalities affect women’s business decisions. The findings demonstrate the contextual importance of social relations for understanding women’s business decisions. More broadly, the findings illustrate that interpersonal interactions concerning the management of economic resources are an integral part of how household members negotiate their rights and responsibilities in relation to each other.
Personality Traits, Technology Adoption, and Technical Efficiency: Evidence from Smallholder Rice Farms in Ghana

(Taylor and Francis, 2019-09) Ali, Daniel Ayalew ; Brown, Derick ; Deininger, Klaus

Although a large literature highlights the impact of personality traits on key labor market outcomes, evidence of their impact on agricultural production decisions remains limited. Data from 1,200 Ghanaian rice farmers suggest that noncognitive skills (polychronicity, work centrality, and optimism) significantly affect simple adoption decisions, returns from adoption, and technical efficiency in rice production, and that the size of the estimated impacts exceeds that of traditional human capital measures. Greater focus on personality traits relative to cognitive skills may help accelerate innovation diffusion in the short term, and help farmers to respond flexibly to new opportunities and risks in the longer term.
The Impact of Monetary Incentives on Referrals by Traditional Birth Attendants for Postnatal Care in Nigeria

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05-20) Chukwuma, Adanna ; Mbachu, Chinyere ; McConnell, Margaret ; Bossert, Thomas J. ; Cohen, Jessica

Gaps in postnatal care use represent missed opportunities to prevent maternal and neonatal death in sub-Saharan Africa. As one in every three non-facility deliveries in Nigeria is assisted by a traditional birth attendant (TBA), and the TBA’s advice is often adhered to by their clients, engaging TBAs in advocacy among their clients may increase maternal and neonatal postnatal care use. This study estimates the impact of monetary incentives for maternal referrals by TBAs on early maternal and neonatal postnatal care use (within 48 h of delivery) in Nigeria. Overall, 207 TBAs participated in this study: 103 in the treatment group and 104 in the control group. The intervention increased the proportion of maternal clients of TBAs that reported attending postnatal care within 48 h of delivery by 15.4 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.9–22.9]. The proportion of neonatal clients of TBAs that reportedly attended postnatal care within 48 h of delivery also increased by 12.6 percentage points [95% CI: 5.9–19.3]. However, providers often did not address the issues that may have led to maternal and newborn postnatal complications during these visits. We show that motivating TBAs using monetary incentives for maternal postnatal care use can increase skilled care use after delivery among their maternal and neonatal clients, who have a higher risk of mortality because of their exposure to unskilled birth attendance. However, improving the quality of care is key to ensuring maternal and neonatal health gains from postnatal care attendance.
Health Service Delivery and Political Trust in Nigeria

(Elsevier, 2019-04) Chukwuma, Adanna ; Bossert, Thomas J. ; Croke, Kevin

Do improvements in health service delivery affect trust in political leaders in Africa? Citizens expect their government to provide social services. Intuitively, improvements in service delivery should lead to higher levels of trust in and support for political leaders. However, in contexts where inadequate services are the norm, and where political support is linked to ethnic or religious affiliation, there may be weak linkages between improvements in service delivery and changes in trust in political leaders. To examine this question empirically, we take advantage of a national intervention that improved health service delivery in 500 primary health care facilities in Nigeria, to estimate the impact of residence within 10 km of one or more of the intervention facilities on trust in the president, local councils, the ruling party, and opposition parties. Using difference-in-difference models, we show that proximity to the intervention led to increases in trust in the president and the ruling party. By contrast, we find no evidence of increased trust in the local council or opposition parties. Our study also examines the role of ethnicity and religious affiliation in mediating the observed increases in trust in the president. While there is a large literature suggesting that both the targeting of interventions, and the response of citizens to interventions is often mediated by ethnic, geographic or religious identity, by contrast, we find no evidence that the intervention was targeted at the president's ethnic group, zone, or state of origin. Moreover, there is suggestive evidence that the intervention increased trust in the president more among those who did not share these markers of identity with the president. This highlights the possibility that broad-based efforts to improve health services can increase trust in political leaders even in settings where political attitudes are often thought to be mediated by group identity.