03. Journals
2,963 items available
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These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.
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Publication
Rural Roads, Poverty, and Resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia
(Taylor and Francis, 2020-10)This study analyses the linkage between the recent rural road development and household welfare, resilience, and economic conditions in Ethiopia. The empirical approach relies on a difference-in-differences matching method, taking advantage of a nationally representative household survey and an original road database, both of which are panel data spanning the period 2012–2016. The results of the econometric analysis suggest that Ethiopia’s rural road development was associated with a significant increase in household welfare or significant smaller losses in household consumption during the severe droughts. In addition, rural roads in very remote areas were associated with farmers’ sales of a larger share of their harvests and higher chance of fertiliser use. Rural road development was also associated with a higher likelihood of earning income from wage employment, particularly for women and youth. Taken together, the results suggest that, by connecting remote communities to markets and the main road network, rural roads have substantially supported the welfare and resilience of rural households in shock-prone Ethiopia. -
Publication
Public Investment Choices by Local and Central Governments
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02)This paper examines the impacts of devolving authority for public resource allocation to local governments in a setting of limited electoral control. Such a setting differs from that assumed by seminal formal models of devolution, but describes many developing countries. This study presents a formal model of this setting and tests it using unique data from a natural experiment in rural Ethiopia whereby half of the country's regions were decentralized but not the other half. Employing a spatial regression discontinuity design, this article shows that decentralization strongly improved delivery of agricultural public services, which are of high priority to the central government. In contrast, it did not impact drinking water services, on which the central government places lower priority but citizens place high priority. -
Publication
Agriculture, Aid, and Economic Growth in Africa
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02)How can foreign aid to agriculture support economic growth in Africa? This paper constructs a geographically indexed applied general equilibrium model that considers pathways through which aid might affect growth and structural transformation of labor markets in the context of soil nutrient variation, minimum subsistence consumption requirements, domestic transport costs, labor mobility, and constraints to self-financing of agricultural inputs. Using plausible parameters, the model is presented for Uganda as an illustrative case. We present three stylized scenarios to demonstrate the potential economy-wide impacts of both soil nutrient loss and replenishment, and how foreign aid can be targeted to support agricultural inputs that boost rural productivity and shift labor to boost real wages. One simulation shows how a temporary program of targeted official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture could generate, contrary to traditional Dutch disease concerns, an expansion in the primary tradable sector and positive permanent productivity and welfare effects, leading to a steady decline in the need for complementary ODA for budget support. -
Publication
Seeing is Believing?: Evidence from an Extension Network Experiment
(Elsevier, 2017-03)Extension is designed to enable lab-to-farm technology diffusion. Decentralized models assume that information flows from researchers to extension workers, and from extension agents to contact farmers (CFs). CFs should then train other farmers in their communities. Such a modality may fail to address informational inefficiencies and accountability issues. We run a field experiment to measure the impact of augmenting the CF model with a direct CF training on the diffusion of a new technology. All villages have CFs and access the same extension network. In treatment villages, CFs additionally receive a three-day, central training on the new technology. We track information transmission through two nodes of the extension network: from extension agents to CFs, and from CFs to other farmers. Directly training CFs leads to a large, statistically significant increase in adoption among CFs. However, higher levels of CF adoption have limited impact on the behavior of other farmers. -
Publication
Food Price Seasonality in Africa: Measurement and Extent
(Elsevier, 2017-02)Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption. -
Publication
Agricultural Input Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Telling Myth from Facts
(Elsevier, 2017-02)Recent evidence shows that many Sub-Saharan African farmers use modern inputs, but there is limited information on how these inputs are financed. We use recent nationally representative data from four countries to explore input financing and the role of credit therein. A number of our results contradict “conventional wisdom” found in the literature. Our results consistently show that traditional credit use, formal or informal, is extremely low (across credit type, country, crop and farm size categories). Instead, farmers primarily finance modern input purchases with cash from nonfarm activities and crop sales. Tied output-labor arrangements (which have received little empirical treatment in the literature) appear to be the only form of credit relatively widely used for farming. -
Publication
Are African Households (Not) Leaving Agriculture?: Patterns of Households’ Income Sources in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa
(Elsevier, 2017-02)This paper uses comparable income aggregates from 41 national household surveys from 22 countries to explore the patterns of income generation among rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa, and to compare household income strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa with those in other regions. The paper seeks to understand how geography drives these strategies, focusing on the role of agricultural potential and distance to urban areas. Specialization in on-farm activities continues to be the norm in rural Africa, practiced by 52 percent of households (as opposed to 21 percent of households in other regions). Regardless of distance and integration in the urban context, when agro-climatic conditions are favorable, farming remains the occupation of choice for most households in the African countries for which the study has geographically explicit information. However, the paper finds no evidence that African households are on a different trajectory than households in other regions in terms of transitioning to non-agricultural based income strategies. -
Publication
Agriculture in Africa – Telling Myths from Facts: A Synthesis
(Elsevier, 2017-02)Stylized facts drive research agendas and policy debates. Yet robust stylized facts are hard to come by, and when available, often outdated. The 12 papers in this Special Issue revisit conventional wisdom on African agriculture and its farmers’ livelihoods using nationally representative surveys from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Initiative in six African countries. At times they simply confirm our common understanding of the topic. But they also throw up a number of surprises, redirecting policy debates while fine-tuning others. Overall, the project calls for more attention to checking and updating our common wisdom. This requires nationally representative data, and sufficient incentives among researchers and policymakers alike. Without well-grounded stylized facts, they can easily be profoundly misguided. -
Publication
Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2006-08-23)Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immediately. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.