03. Journals
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These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.
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Publication
Assessing Gender Gaps in Employment and Earnings in Africa: The Case of Eswatini
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07)Persistent gender gaps characterize labor markets in many African countries. Utilizing Eswatini’s first three labor market surveys (conducted in 2007, 2010, and 2013), this paper provides first systematic evidence on the country’s gender gaps in employment and earnings. We find that women have notably lower employment rates and earnings than men, even though the global financial crisis had a less negative impact on women than it had on men. Both unadjusted and unexplained gender earnings gaps are higher in self-employment than in wage employment. Tertiary education and urban location account for a large part of the gender earnings gap and mitigate high female propensity to self-employment. Our findings suggest that policies supporting female higher education and rural-urban mobility could reduce persistent inequalities in Eswatini’s labor market outcomes as well as in other middle-income countries in southern Africa. -
Publication
Migration and Urbanization in Post-Apartheid South Africa
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-06)Although Africa has experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades, little is known about the process of urbanization across the continent. This paper exploits a natural experiment, the abolition of South African pass laws, to explore how exogenous population shocks affect the spatial distribution of economic activity. Under apartheid, black South Africans were severely restricted in their choice of location, and many were forced to live in homelands. Following the abolition of apartheid they were free to migrate. Given a migration cost in distance, a town nearer to the homelands will receive a larger inflow of people than a more distant town following the removal of mobility restrictions. Drawing upon this exogenous variation, this study examines the effect of migration on urbanization in South Africa. While it is found that on average there is no endogenous adjustment of population location to a positive population shock, there is heterogeneity in the results. Cities that start off larger do grow endogenously in the wake of a migration shock, while rural areas that start off small do not respond in the same way. This heterogeneity indicates that population shocks lead to an increase in urban relative to rural populations. Overall, the evidence suggests that exogenous migration shocks can foster urbanization in the medium run. -
Publication
Economic Transformation in Africa from the Bottom Up: New Evidence from Tanzania
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02)Tanzania's rapid labor productivity growth has been accompanied by a proliferation of small, largely informal firms. Using Tanzania's first nationally representative survey of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)—this paper explores the nature of these businesses. It finds that these firms are located in both rural and urban areas and that they operate primarily in trade services and manufacturing. Roughly half of all business owners say they would not leave their job for a full-time salaried position. Fifteen percent of these small businesses contribute significantly to economy-wide labor productivity. The most important policy implication of the evidence presented in this paper is that if the goal is to grow MSMEs with the potential to contribute to productive employment, policies must be targeted at the most promising firms. -
Publication
Is There a Cost-Effective Means of Training Microenterprises?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02)Despite billions of dollars spent by policy institutions and academics, very few programs designed to increase managerial skills among microenterprises are cost-effective. This short paper highlights a mentorship program designed to provide managerial skills to Kenyan microenterprises, and it provides a detailed cost-benefit analysis. For each dollar spent on a treated firm, average profit increases by 1.63 USD; the result stems from both a higher program impact and lower cost relative to existing training programs. Motivated by this increased cost-effectiveness, the study then compares the program to the large literature focusing on “supply-side” interventions designed to increase managerial capacity in small firms, and it highlights particular margins on which mentorship improves on classroom training and also where training should focus. -
Publication
Taxing the Good? Distortions, Misallocation, and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02)This paper uses comprehensive and comparable firm-level manufacturing censuses from four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to examine the extent, costs, and nature of within-industry resource misallocation between heterogeneous production units. This paper finds evidence of severe misallocation in which resources are diverted away from high-productivity firms towards low-productivity ones, although the magnitude differs across countries. Estimated aggregate productivity gains from the hypothetical equalization of marginal returns range from 30 percent in Côte d’Ivoire to 160 percent in Kenya. The magnitude of reallocation gains appears considerably lower when performing the same counterfactual exercise based on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys once the value-added shares of industries are adjusted using the census data. This suggests that linking firm-level survey data to aggregate outcomes requires census-type data or sampling methods that take the true structure of production into account. -
Publication
Comparing Costs of Living across World Cities
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02)This paper compares costs of living across world cities. The International Comparison Program (ICP) reports price levels across world economies in its calculation of purchasing power parity through an extensive scale of price data collection and rigorous methodology. While the price levels are reported only at the national level, some modification makes it possible to compare the cost of living across a group of world cities. In addition, various agencies report costs of living rankings for world cities on a regular basis, and some of them, such as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)’s World Cost of Living Survey, systematically collect a wide variety of items from a host of cities, even covering low-income countries. This article's application of the ICP method to the EIU price data yields an overall reasonable result: richer cities have higher price levels, and the rankings of cities based on their price levels are similar when using the ICP and EIU data. Nevertheless, the results based on the EIU data differ from the ICP data relatively widely in some nonfood items and among cities with low price levels. This result highlights important issues regarding the data and methodology required to measure costs of living for development purposes. -
Publication
Importing and Firm Productivity in Ethiopian Manufacturing
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10)This paper investigates the causal relationship between importing and firm productivity. Using a rich dataset from Ethiopian manufacturing over the period 1996–2011, I find that most firms rely on production inputs from the world market. These firms are better performing as shown by significant, economically large import premia. I also find strong evidence of self-selection of more productive firms into importing which is indicative of sizable import market entry costs. To examine the causal effect of importing on firm productivity, I use a model in which the static and dynamic effects of importing are separately estimated. The estimation results provide support to learning-by-importing. However, the productivity gains are small in size compared to similar findings in other studies. I provide some evidence in support of firms’ limited absorptive capacity in explaining the small productivity gains. -
Publication
The Devil is in the Detail: Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Africa in the Last Two Decades
(Oxford University Press, 2019-08)The present paper, starting from evidence of low growth-to-poverty elasticity characterizing Africa, purports to identify the distributional changes that limited the pro-poor impact of the last two decades’ growth. Distributional changes that went undetected by standard inequality measures were not showing a clear pattern of inequality on the continent. By applying a new decomposition technique based on a non-parametric method—the ‘relative distribution’—we found a clear distributional pattern affecting almost all analysed countries. Nineteen out twenty four countries experienced a significant increase in polarization, particularly in the lower tail of the distribution, and this distributional change lowered the pro-poor impact of growth substantially. Without this unfavorable redistribution, poverty could have decreased in these countries by an additional five percentage points. -
Publication
Agriculture, Aid, and Economic Growth in Africa
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02)How can foreign aid to agriculture support economic growth in Africa? This paper constructs a geographically indexed applied general equilibrium model that considers pathways through which aid might affect growth and structural transformation of labor markets in the context of soil nutrient variation, minimum subsistence consumption requirements, domestic transport costs, labor mobility, and constraints to self-financing of agricultural inputs. Using plausible parameters, the model is presented for Uganda as an illustrative case. We present three stylized scenarios to demonstrate the potential economy-wide impacts of both soil nutrient loss and replenishment, and how foreign aid can be targeted to support agricultural inputs that boost rural productivity and shift labor to boost real wages. One simulation shows how a temporary program of targeted official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture could generate, contrary to traditional Dutch disease concerns, an expansion in the primary tradable sector and positive permanent productivity and welfare effects, leading to a steady decline in the need for complementary ODA for budget support. -
Publication
Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2018-10)History offers many examples of dictatorswho worsened their behavior significantly over time (like Zimbabwe’s Mugabe) as well as dictators who displayed remarkable improvements (like Rawlings of Ghana).We show that such mutations can result from rational behavior when the dictator’s flow use of repression is complementary to his stock of wrongdoings: past wrongdoings then perpetuate further wrongdoings and the dictator can unintentionally get trapped in a repressive steady state where he himself suffers from ex-post regret. This then begs the question why such a dictator would ever choose to do wrong in the first place. We show that this can be explained from the dictator’s uncertainty over his degree of impunity in relation to wrongdoing, which induces him to experiment along this dimension. This produces a setting where any individual rising to power can end up as either a moderate leader, or as a dreaded tyrant. Since derailment is accidental and accompanied by ex-post regret, increasing accountability can be in the interest of both the public and the dictator.