03. Journals

3,111 items available

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/2210

These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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The Relationship between Climate Action and Poverty Reduction
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-12-30) Lankes, Hand Peter; Macquarie, Rob; Soubeyran, Éléonore; Stern, Nicholas
There is growing awareness that actions by policymakers and international organizations to reduce poverty, and those to mitigate and adapt to climate change, are inextricably linked and interwoven. This paper examines relevant academic and policy literature and evidence on this relationship and explores the potential for a new form of development that simultaneously mitigates climate change, manages its impacts, and improves the wellbeing of people in poverty. First, as a key foundation, it outlines the backdrop in basic moral philosophy, noting that climate action and poverty reduction can be motivated both by a core principle based on the right to development and by the conventional consequentialism that is standard in economics. Second, it reviews assessments of the current and potential future impacts of weakly managed climate change on the wellbeing of those in poverty, paying attention to unequal effects, including by gender. Third, it examines arguments and literature on the economic impacts of climate action and policies and how those affect the wellbeing of people in poverty, highlighting the importance of market failures, technological change, systemic dynamics of transition, and distributional effects of mitigation and adaptation. Finally, the paper surveys the current state of knowledge and understanding of how climate action and poverty reduction can be integrated in policy design, indicating where further research can contribute to a transition that succeeds in both objectives.
Agricultural Productivity and Land Inequality: Evidence from the Philippines
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-12-26) Bequet, Ludovic
How do agricultural productivity gains affect the distribution of agricultural land Exploiting three waves of census data from the Philippines covering 21 years and 17 million plots, this article finds that municipalities endowed with favorable soil and weather conditions for genetically modified (GM) corn cultivation experience a relative increase in landholding inequality. Agricultural land is decreasing during this period and this decrease is driven by a decline in the size of large farms. The introduction of GM corn slows down this process by keeping more land under cultivation, which contributes to the documented relative increase in inequality.
Import Uncertainty and Export Dynamics
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-12-18) Vijil, Mariana; Wagner, Laurent; Woldemichael, Martha Tesfaye
A supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Firms are constantly managing uncertainties, including unexpected delays in the provision of a critical input that can slow down or halt the production process, possibly making the manufacturer miss a delivery deadline. As most exporters are also importers of intermediate goods, supply chain unreliability related to import processing times at the border could impact downstream export dynamics. The role of unpredictability in border-clearance times for imports in manufacturing firms’ entry, exit, and survival in export markets is investigated using the PPML estimator on a rich dataset built on firm level information for 48 developing countries over 2006–2014. Uncertainty in the time to clear imported inputs impacts neither the entry nor the exit rate, but translates into lower survival rates for new exporters, reducing the number of firms that continue serving the foreign market beyond their first year of entry. This effect grows larger over time, owing to rising reputational costs to input-importing exporters and is mainly driven by South-North trade, possibly reflecting the time-sensitivity of buyers in developed countries. Results also reveal heterogeneous effects across export industries, and the mediating role of sunk costs of entry in foreign markets, which attenuate the negative effect of uncertainty on survival rates as firms delay exiting the export market.
Cooperative Membership and Exposure to Role Models: Implications for Income and Asset Aspirations
(Elsevier, 2023-12-01) Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Heckelei, Thomas; Baylis, Kathy; Rasch, Sebastian
Although it is increasingly recognized that aspirations drive economic behavior and outcomes, it is not fully understood how aspirations are formed (or eroded). However, it has been theoretically established that aspirations are socially constructed and formed under an aspiration window. An aspiration window refers to a cognitive zone of similar individuals based on age, gender, caste, geography, religion, ethnicity, and other social (self-help) groups. In these groups, individuals learn from each other through interaction and experimentation. We examine the relationship between group membership and aspirations. As a proxy for group membership, we use agricultural cooperatives that abound in many developing countries and have been associated with productivity and welfare gains. Given that farmers interact and are exposed to role models in these cooperatives, we also investigate the relationship between exposure to role models and aspirations. We show a positive association between cooperative membership and aspirations as well as between exposure to role models and aspirations. Interacting cooperative membership with exposure to role models, we find a larger association between cooperative membership and aspirations, highlighting the relevance of exposure to role models in these cooperatives. Given the growing evidence regarding the relevance of aspirations in achieving various developmental outcomes, our study highlights some entry points in improving aspirations.
Labor Market and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Latin America amid COVID: The Role of Digital-Adoption Policies
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-12-01) Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan; Nuguer, Victoria; Novoa Gomez, Santiago
This paper analyzes how a policy that lowers firm digital-adoption costs shapes the labor-market and economic recovery from COVID-19 in Latin America (LA) using a framework with firm entry and unemployment, where salaried firms can adopt digital technologies and the employment and firm structure embodies key features of LA economies. Using Mexico as a case study, the model replicates the response of the labor market and output at the onset of the COVID recession and in its aftermath, including the dynamics of labor-force participation and informal employment. A policy-induced permanent reduction in the cost of adopting digital technologies at the trough of the recession bolsters the recovery of GDP, total employment, and labor income, and leads to a larger expansion in the share of formal employment compared to a no-policy scenario. In the long run, the economy exhibits a reduction in total employment but higher levels of GDP and labor income, greater average firm productivity, a larger formal employment share, and a marginally lower unemployment rate. Finally, as a side effect, the policy exacerbates the differential between formal and informal labor income, both as the economy recovers from the COVID recession and in the long run.
Shifting Attitudes towards Domestic Violence: The Impact of Primary Education on Women’s Marital Outcomes in Benin
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-12-01) Deschênes, Sarah; Hotte, Rozenn
The paper examines the effect of a primary education program in Benin on women’s marital outcomes. The study leverages a sharp increase in the construction of schools in the 1990s to assess the causal impact of an increase in primary-school supply on primary-school attendance, employment, marital outcomes, and experience and tolerance of intimate partner violence (IPV). Using quasi-experimental geographical and historical variations in the number of schools built, the results indicate that in rural areas the school building program increased the probability of attending primary school and increased the age at marriage and at first child. It decreased the probability that women find domestic violence justified and that they experience emotional IPV. The effects are driven by women’s own increase in education rather than their husbands.
Social Protection amid a Crisis: New Evidence from South Africa’s Older Person’s Grant
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-11-23) Alloush, Mo; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Malacarne, J. G.
This study estimates the effects of South Africa’s Older Person’s Grant on well-being amid the COVID-19 pandemic. With household-level data collected before and during the pandemic, it leverages the age-eligibility threshold of the grant to estimate its effects on households in both periods. Prior to the pandemic, this study finds that grant receipt substantially improves economic well-being and decreases adult hunger at the household level. During the first 18 months of the pandemic, this study finds larger effects on both economic well-being and hunger than prior to the pandemic. Recipient households were less likely to report running out of money for food and hunger among either adults or children. These results, which are stronger when pandemic-related lockdown policies are in place and for more vulnerable households, provide critical insight into the effectiveness of one of the world’s most well-known cash-transfer programs during a massive global health crisis.
Social Protection and Foundational Cognitive Skills during Adolescence: Evidence from a Large Public Works Program
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-11-13) Freund, Richard; Favara, Marta; Porter, Catherine; Behrman, Jere
Many low, and middle-income countries have introduced public works programs (PWPs) to fight poverty. This paper provides the first evidence that children from families who benefit from PWPs show increased foundational cognitive skills. The results, based on unique tablet-based data collected as part of a long-standing longitudinal survey, show positive associations between participation in the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) in Ethiopia during childhood with long-term memory and implicit learning, and suggestive evidence for working memory. These associations appear to be strongest for children whose households were still PSNP participants in the year of data collection. Evidence suggests that the association with implicit learning may be operating partially through children’s time reallocation away from unpaid labor responsibilities, while the association with long-term memory may in part be due to the program’s success in remediating nutritional deficits caused by early-life rainfall shocks.
Allocative Efficiency between and within the Formal and Informal Manufacturing Sectors in Zimbabwe
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-10) Kamutando, Godfrey; Edwards, Lawrence
Resource misallocation has the potential to reduce aggregate total factor productivity and undermine industrial development. Aggregate productivity losses are found to be particularly pronounced in emerging economies where large market frictions impede efficient resource allocation. Available estimates, however, almost entirely exclude firms in the informal sector that in some countries, such as Zimbabwe, make up a high share of overall production and employment. The exclusion of informal firms can result in either an over- or under-estimate of the aggregate productivity losses from misallocation. This paper, therefore, uses firm-level survey data to analyze how market distortions contribute to the misallocation of resources within and between the formal and informal manufacturing sectors in Zimbabwe. Applying the approach developed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) to firm-level microdata, the results reveal extensive resource misallocation in both the formal and informal manufacturing sector. Market shares of informal firms are found to be low relative to their productivity, an outcome associated with relatively large capital market distortions. Misallocation is also more pronounced among relatively productive firms, thus exacerbating aggregate losses in total factor productivity (TFP). Estimates indicate that aggregated gains in TFP of 151.4 percent can be realized through efficient resource allocation.
The Short- and Longer-Term Effects of a Child Labor Ban
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-11-08) Piza, Caio; Portela Souza, André; Emerson, Patrick M.; Amorim, Vivian
This paper investigates whether the 1998 Brazilian law that increased the minimum employment age from 14 to 16 lowered child labor and increased school attendance and whether those effects persisted beyond age 16. Using a regression discontinuity design, the results indicate that the ban had a significant impact on urban boys, a cohort that represents half of all paid child labor in Brazil. This cohort had a 35 percent decrease in paid labor, driven mainly by a decrease in informal work, and an 11 percent increase in the share of those only attending school. In addition, there is evidence that these effects persist past the age of enforcement where the affected cohort was less likely to work and more likely to be only attending school beyond age 16. Overall, the results suggest that enforced bans on child labor can have significant immediate and persistent impacts on affected populations.