03. Journals
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These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.
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Publication
The Interplay of Policy and Institutions during COVID-19
(Taylor and Francis, 2021-09-27)Are COVID-19 spread and mortality related to different countries’ government mobility restriction policies, democratic institutions, and cultural norms? Leveraging data from 140 countries, we find that policy, institutions, and vulnerabilities interact to determine pandemic spread and mortality. A delay in restricting international mobility increases pandemic mortality. Combining vulnerabilities with a delay in domestic mobility restrictions increases mortality. Democratic countries have faster policy responses and lower pandemic mortality, but they also face more adverse effects from a delay in restricting domestic mobility. More individualistic countries have a higher pandemic spread, and their delay in domestic mobility restrictions is associated with higher pandemic mortality. -
Publication
Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic
(Elsevier, 2021-09)We evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-o between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, we compare estimates of LYs and PYs across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, we estimate that, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) had generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, a comparison of these baseline results with mortality estimates in a counterfactual herd immunity scenario suggests that welfare losses would be greater in the latter in most countries. -
Publication
How Many Infants May Have Died in Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries in 2020 Due to the Economic Contraction Accompanying the COVID-19 Pandemic? Mortality Projections Based on Forecasted Declines in Economic Growth
(BMJ Publishing Group, Ltd., 2021-08)While COVID-19 has a relatively small direct impact on infant mortality, the pandemic is expected to indirectly increase mortality of this vulnerable group in low-income and middle-income countries through its effects on the economy and health system performance. Previous studies projected indirect mortality by modelling how hypothesized disruptions in health services will affect health outcomes. We provide alternative projections, relying on modelling the relationship between aggregate income shocks and mortality. The findings underscore the vulnerability of infants to the negative income shocks such as those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While efforts towards prevention and treatment of COVID-19 remain paramount, the global community should also strengthen social safety nets and assure continuity of essential health services. -
Publication
Assessing Bias in Smartphone Mobility Estimates in Low Income Countries
(Association for Computing Machinery, 2021-06-28)It has become common for governments and practitioners to measure mobility using data from smartphones, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet in countries where few people have smartphones, or use mobile internet, the movement of smartphones may not be a good indicator of the movement of the population. This paper develops a framework for approaching potential bias that can arise when measuring mobility with smartphones. Using mobile phone operator records in Uganda, we compare the mobility of smartphones and the basic and feature phones that are more common. Smartphones have different travel patterns, and decrease mobility substantially more in response to a COVID-19 lockdown. This suggests caution when interpreting smartphone mobility estimates in contexts with low adoption. -
Publication
Disruptions in Maternal and Child Health Service Utilization during COVID-19: Analysis from Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries
(Oxford University Press, 2021-06-19)The coronavirus-19 pandemic and its secondary effects threaten the continuity of essential health services delivery, which may lead to worsened population health and a protracted public health crisis. We quantify such disruptions, focusing on maternal and child health, in eight sub-Saharan countries. Service volumes are extracted from administrative systems for 63 954 facilities in eight countries: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Somalia. Using an interrupted time series design and an ordinary least squares regression model with facility-level fixed effects, we analyze data from January 2018 to February 2020 to predict what service utilization levels would have been in March–July 2020 in the absence of the pandemic, accounting for both secular trends and seasonality. Estimates of disruption are derived by comparing the predicted and observed service utilization levels during the pandemic period. All countries experienced service disruptions for at least 1 month, but the magnitude and duration of the disruptions vary. Outpatient consultations and child vaccinations were the most commonly affected services and fell by the largest margins. We estimate a cumulative shortfall of 5 149 491 outpatient consultations and 328 961 third-dose pentavalent vaccinations during the 5 months in these eight countries. Decreases in maternal health service utilization are less generalized, although significant declines in institutional deliveries, antenatal care and postnatal care were detected in some countries. There is a need to better understand the factors determining the magnitude and duration of such disruptions in order to design interventions that would respond to the shortfall in care. Service delivery modifications need to be both highly contextualized and integrated as a core component of future epidemic response and planning. -
Publication
Integrating Culture in Post-Crisis Urban Recovery: Reflections on the Power of Cultural Heritage to Deal with Crisis
(Elsevier, 2021-06-15)Crisis disrupt people lives. Either if they are caused by disasters due to natural hazards, conflict situations, or diseases outbreaks, crisis affect livelihoods, economies, and social and personal welfare. The role of culture and cultural heritage to deal with these situations has been often underestimated. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is showing the importance of relying and using culture to help people handling difficult experiences. Likewise, culture is being progressively integrated into post-crisis recovery process, as reflected in the Culture in City Reconstruction and Recovery (CURE) Framework developed by UNESCO and the World Bank, under the common understanding that culture is the foundation on which cities are built. This paper will present some key aspects from this approach to integrate culture both as an asset and as a tool, in urban recovery processes, including some challenges such as the application of the build back better principle to cultural heritage contexts, as well as some reflections on their use during ongoing crisis. -
Publication
Financial Sector Policy Response to COVID-19 in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
(Elsevier, 2021-05-21)This paper introduces a new global database and a policy classification framework that records the financial sector policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic across 155 jurisdictions and over time. It documents that authorities around the world have taken a diverse array of measures to mitigate financial distress in the markets and for borrowers, and to support the provision of critical financial services to the real economy. Using Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regressions, the paper takes initial steps to analyze the determinants of policy makers’ responsiveness and activity in emerging markets and developing economies, respectively. The results indicate that policy makers in richer and more populous countries have been significantly more responsive and have taken more policy measures. Belonging to a monetary union is also significantly associated with a faster and more frequent intervention. Countries with higher private debt levels tend to respond earlier with banking sector and liquidity and funding measures. The spread of COVID-19, macro-financial fundamentals, pressure on foreign exchange markets, political settings, and fiscal and containment policies appear to play a limited role in determining policy response. In a substantially smaller sample, the paper explores the role of banking sector characteristics and finds that emerging markets and developing economies with higher private bank credit to GDP and that have adopted Basel III reforms have taken fewer policy measures.