03. Journals

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These are journal articles published in World Bank journals as well as externally by World Bank authors.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 155
  • Publication
    Minimum Age Regulation and Child Labor: New Evidence from Brazil
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-12-19) Bargain, Olivier; Boutin, Delphine
    This study presents new evidence on the effects of minimum age regulations obtained from a natural experiment. In 1998, a constitutional reform in Brazil changed the minimum working age from 14 to 16. The reform was the legislative counterpart of a broad set of measures taken by a government strongly committed to eliminating child labor. This article investigates the role of the minimum working age in this context. The setting allows for improvements upon past approaches based on comparing employment rates of children at different ages. A discontinuity in treatment is exploited, namely the fact that only children who turned 14 after the enactment date (mid-December 1998) are banned from work. According to regression discontinuity and difference-in-discontinuity designs, the null hypothesis of no overall effect of the ban cannot be rejected. Throughout the methods and specifications, an employment effect in a confidence interval of [−0.06,0.03] (in percentage points) is found. A detailed heterogeneity analysis is performed and provides suggestive evidence of diminishing child labor trends in regions characterized by higher labor inspection intensity, which is interpreted as a trace of there being a law. However, contrary to what has been claimed in recent studies, the law seems not to have produced sizeable effects overall, at least in the short run. Power calculations and extensive sensitivity checks support these conclusions.
  • Publication
    Estimating Treatment Effects with Big Data When Take-up is Low: An Application to Financial Education
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-12-14) Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; McKenzie, David; Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia
    Low take-up of interventions is a common problem faced by evaluations of development programs. A leading case is financial education programs, which are increasingly offered by governments, nonprofits, and financial institutions, but which often have very low voluntary participation rates. This poses a severe challenge for randomized experiments attempting to measure their impact. This study uses a large experiment on more than 100,000 credit card clients in Mexico. The study shows how the richness of financial data allows combining matching and difference-in-difference methods with the experiment to yield credible measures of impact, even with take-up rates below 1 percent. The findings show that a financial education workshop and personalized coaching result in a higher likelihood of paying credit cards on time, and of making more than the minimum payment, but do not reduce spending, resulting in higher profitability for the bank.
  • Publication
    Changing Pedagogy to Improve Skills in Preschools: Experimental Evidence from Peru
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-12-11) Gallego, Francisco A.; Näslund-Hadley, Emma; Alfonso, Mariana
    Changing pedagogical practices is a promising, cost-effective avenue for improving education in developing countries, especially when done without changing current inputs such as teachers and instruction time. This article presents the results of a randomized evaluation of a program that aimed at changing the pedagogical approach used to teach the existing national mathematics curriculum. The program provides tools to regular preschool teachers to use an inquiry- and problem-based learning approach to tailor instruction to preschoolers in Peru. The results show an improvement of overall mathematics outcomes, which persist for some content areas even one year after the program ended. In contrast to results from previous research that suggest mathematics programs are biased along gender and socioeconomic lines, there is no evidence of differential effects by gender, language spoken at home, or proxies for socioeconomic status. Results also imply persistent stronger impacts on students whose teachers have university degrees.
  • Publication
    Teaching with the Test: Experimental Evidence on Diagnostic Feedback and Capacity Building for Public Schools in Argentina
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-11-02) De Hoyos, Rafael; Ganimian, Alejandro J.; Holland, Peter A.
    This article examines the impact of two strategies for using large-scale assessment results to improve school management and classroom instruction in the province of La Rioja, Argentina. In the study, 104 public primary schools were randomly assigned to three groups: a diagnostic-feedback group, in which standardized tests were administered at baseline and two follow-ups and results were made available to schools; a capacity-building group, in which workshops and school visits were conducted; and a control group, in which tests were administered at the second follow-up. After two years, diagnostic-feedback schools outperformed control schools by 0.33 standard deviations (σ) in mathematics and 0.36σ in reading. In fact, feedback schools still performed 0.26σ better in math and 0.22σ better in reading in the national assessment a year after the end of the intervention. Additionally, principals at feedback schools were more likely to use assessment results in making management decisions, and students were more likely to report that their teachers used more instructional strategies and to rate their teachers more favorably. Combining feedback with capacity building does not seem to yield additional improvements, but this could be due to schools assigned to receive both components starting from lower learning levels and participating in fewer workshops and visits than expected.
  • Publication
    The Effects of Health Insurance within Families: Experimental Evidence from Nicaragua
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10) Fitzpatrick, Anne; Thornton, Rebecca
    This paper measures the causal effects of parent enrollment into voluntary health insurance on healthcare utilization among insured and uninsured children in Nicaragua. The study utilizes a randomized trial and age-eligibility cutoff in which insurance subsidies were randomly allocated to parents that covered their dependent children under 12; children age 12 and older were not eligible for coverage. Among eligible children, the insurance increased utilization at covered providers by 0.56 visits and increased overall utilization by 1.3 visits. Ineligible children with insured parents experienced 1.7 fewer healthcare visits driven by parent, not sibling, enrollment. The results suggest complementarities across healthcare provider type and provide evidence that households reallocate resources across all members in response to changes in healthcare prices for some.
  • Publication
    Supporting Pathways to Prosperity in Forest Landscapes – A PRIME Framework
    (Elsevier, 2019-08-07) Shyamsundar, Priya; Ahlroth, Sofia; Kristjanson, Patricia; Onder, Stefanie
    We develop a framework to conceptualize the multiple ways forests contribute to poverty reduction and inform development interventions in forest landscapes. We identify five key strategies for reducing poverty in forest landscapes: a) improvements in productivity (P) of forest land and labor; b) governance reform to strengthen community, household and women’s rights (R) over forests and land; c) investments (I) in institutions, infrastructure and public services that facilitate forest-based entrepreneurship; d) increased access to markets (M) for timber or non-timber forest products; and e) mechanisms that enhance and enable the flow of benefits from forest ecosystem services (E) to the poor. We test the utility of the framework through a review of the forestry portfolio of the World Bank Group, the largest public investor in forestry. Many of these projects include several, but not all, PRIME components. We devote particular attention to forest-related investments in two contrasting countries, Vietnam and Mexico, to examine synergies among the pathways. Results suggest that each strategy in the PRIME framework may play an important role in alleviating poverty, but pronounced impacts may require multiple pathways to be jointly pursued. The PRIME framework can guide research to address knowledge gaps on pathways to prosperity in forest landscapes, serve as an easily remembered checklist for managers, and nudge forest program designers in government and development organizations, who are interested in poverty reduction, to focus on the importance of both a comprehensive framework and synergies across different pathways.
  • Publication
    Income Mobility, Income Risk, and Welfare
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-06) Krebs, Tom; Krishna, Pravin; Maloney, William F.
    This paper presents a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility, and welfare, with ex ante identical individuals facing a stochastic income process and market incompleteness, implying that they are unable to insure against persistent shocks to income. We show how the parameters of the income process can be estimated using repeated cross-sectional data with a short panel dimension and use a simple consumption-saving model for quantitative analysis of mobility and welfare. Our empirical application, using data on individual incomes from Mexico, provides striking results. Most of the measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and is therefore (almost) welfare neutral. Only a small part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing catching-up of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which, nevertheless, have economically significant effects on social welfare. Strikingly, roughly half of the mobility that cannot be attributed to measurement error or transitory income shocks is driven by welfare-reducing persistent income shocks. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation.
  • Publication
    The More Stringent, the Better? Rationing Car Use in Bogotá with Moderate and Drastic Restrictions
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-06) Bonilla, Jorge A.
    Rationing car use based on license plate number has become a popular policy in several cities around the world to address traffic congestion and air pollution. This paper studies the effects of the moderate and drastic driving restrictions imposed as part of the Pico y Placa program on car use and air pollution in Bogotá. Using data on ambient carbon monoxide, gasoline consumption, and vehicle sales and registrations, no evidence of an improvement in air quality or a reduction in car use is found in either phase of the program. On the contrary, there is some indication that, relative to the moderate phase, gasoline consumption, vehicle ownership, and carbon monoxide in the morning peak tended to increase slightly when drastic restrictions were implemented.
  • Publication
    Building Road Safety Institutions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: The Case of Argentina
    (Taylor and Francis, 2019-03-08) Bhalla, Kavi; Shotten, Marc
    Traffic injuries remain a leading health concern in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, most LMICs have not established institutions that have the legislative mandate and financial resources necessary to coordinate large-scale interventions. Argentina provides a counterexample. Argentina is a federal country where the decentralization of authority to provincial governments was a key barrier to effective national interventions. In 2008, Argentina passed a law establishing a national road safety agency and subsequently received a World Bank loan to build the agency’s capacity to coordinate actions. Although traffic injuries in Argentina have not yet begun to decline, these developments raise important questions:Why did Argentina come to view road safety as a problem?Why was institutional reform the chosen solution? What was the political process for achieving reform? What are the broader implications for institutional reform in LMICs?We explore these questions using a descriptive case study (single-case, holistic design) of Argentina. The case illustrates that focusing events, like the Santa Fe tragedy that killed nine children, and advocacy groups are important for raising political attention and creating an opportunity for legislative reform. It highlights the importance of policy entrepreneurs who used the opportunity to push through new legislation. Though the political dynamic was predominantly local, international actors worked with local advocates to build demand for safety and develop solutions that could be deployed when the opportunity arose. Most important, the case emphasizes the importance of developing institutions with the resources and authority necessary for managing national road safety programs.
  • Publication
    Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers: Review of the Evidence
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Molina Millán, Teresa; Barham, Tania; Macours, Karen; Maluccio, John A.; Stampini, Marco
    Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs, started in the late 1990s in Latin America, have become the antipoverty program of choice in many developing countries in the region and beyond. This paper reviews the literature on their long-term impacts on human capital and related outcomes observed after children have reached a later stage of their life cycle, focusing on two life-cycle transitions. The first includes children exposed to CCTs in utero or during early childhood who have reached school ages. The second includes children exposed to CCTs during school ages who have reached young adulthood. Most studies find positive long-term effects on schooling, but fewer find positive impacts on cognitive skills, learning, or socio-emotional skills. Impacts on employment and earnings are mixed, possibly because former beneficiaries were often still too young. A number of studies find estimates that are not statistically different from zero, but for which it is often not possible to be confident that this is due to an actual lack of impact rather than to the methodological challenges facing all long-term evaluations. Developing further opportunities for analyses with rigorous identification strategies for the measurement of long-term impacts should be high on the research agenda. As original beneficiaries age, this should also be increasingly possible, and indeed important before concluding whether or not CCTs lead to sustainable poverty reduction.