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Publication(World Bank, 2010) World BankThe world economy is emerging from the throes of a historically deep and synchronized recession provoked by the bursting of a global financial bubble. The consequences of the initial bubble and the crisis have been felt in virtually every economy, whether or not it participated directly in the risky behaviors that precipitated the boom-and-bust cycle. And while growth rates have picked up, the depth of the recession means that it will take years before unemployment and spare capacity are reabsorbed. This year's global economic prospects examines the consequences of the crisis for both the short and medium term growth prospects of developing countries. It concludes that the crisis and the regulatory reaction to the financial excesses of the preceding several years may have lasting impacts on financial markets, raising borrowing costs and lowering levels of credit and international capital flows. As a result, the rate of growth of potential output in developing countries may be reduced by between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points annually over the next five to seven years as economies adjust to tighter financial conditions. Overall, the level of potential output in developing countries could be reduced by between 3.4 and 8 percent over the long run, compared with its pre-crisis path. The report further finds that the very liquid conditions of the first half of the decade contributed to the expansion in credit available in developing countries and that this expansion was responsible for about 40 percent of the approximately 1.5 percentage point acceleration of the pace at which many developing-country economies could grow without generating significant inflation. While developing countries probably cannot reverse the expected tightening in international financial conditions, there is considerable scope for reducing domestic borrowing costs, or increasing productivity and thereby regaining the higher growth path that the crisis has derailed.
Publication(World Bank, 2009) World BankThe release of this year's global economic prospects finds the world economy at a crossroads. Markets all over the world are engulfed in a global economic crisis, with stock markets sharply down and volatile, almost all currencies having depreciated substantially against the dollar, and risk premiums on a wide range of debt having increased by 600 or more basis points. Commodity markets too have turned a corner. Following several years of increase, prices have plummeted, and although well above their 1990s levels, they have given up most of the increases of the past 24 months. Chapter one of this report examines the medium-term implications of this crisis for developing-country growth, inflation, and world trade. Chapter two looks at longer-term supply and demand prospects in commodity markets. It takes into account the long-term growth prospects of developing countries and their rising share in world GDP (gross domestic product), the declining quality of new pools of resources, and the influence of technology on both demand and supply. Finally, chapter three reports on the poverty impacts of high commodity prices and examines the effectiveness of policies in both producing and consuming countries in dealing with the challenges posed by periodic bouts of high commodity prices.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2005-11) World BankThe themes of the 2006 Global Economic Prospects (GEP) are international remittances and migration, their economic consequences, and how policies can increase their role in reducing poverty. The GEP explores the gains and losses from international migration from the perspective of developing countries, with special attention to the money that migrants send home. The report also considers policy initiatives that could improve the developmental impact of migration, with particular attention to remittances. The first chapter reviews recent developments in and prospects for the global economy and their implications for developing countries. Chapter 2 uses a model-based simulation to evaluate the potential global welfare gains and distributional impact from an increase in high-income countries' labor force caused by migration from developing countries. Chapter 3 surveys the economic literature on the benefits and costs of migration for migrants and their countries of origin. Chapter 4 investigates the size of remittance flows to developing countries, the use of formal and informal channels, the role of government policies in improving the development impact of remittances, and, their macroeconomic impact. Chapter 5 addresses the impact of remittances at the household level. The last chapter investigates policy measures that could lower the cost of remittance transactions for poor households and measures to strengthen the financial infrastructure supporting remittances.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 1997-09-30) World BankThe year’s report projects an increase in the growth rate of global output, with notable contributions from Sub-Saharan Africa, the developing countries of Europe and Central Asian, and East Asian countries. This report places special emphasis on the role of the “Big 5” developing and transition economies – China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia – in the future of the global economy. In addition to assessing the current state of the world economy, this report discusses the expansion of global production and the costs of making the transition to a more open economy