Corporate Flagships

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The current corporate publications that are World Bank Group flagships are: World Development Report (WDR); Global Economic Prospects (GEP), Doing Business (DB), and Poverty and Shared Prosperity (PSP). All go through a formal Bank-wide review and are discussed with the Board prior to their release. In terms of branding, the phrase “A World Bank Group Flagship Report” will be used exclusively on the cover of these publications. This label will signal that the institution assumes a higher level of responsibility for the positions held by these reports. The flagship Global Monitoring Report (GMR) is no longer produced. The flagship Doing Business is no longer produced.

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Global Economic Prospects, January 2022

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-01-11) World Bank

The global recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market and developing economies will remain markedly below pre-pandemic trends over the forecast horizon. The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new COVID-19 outbreaks, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels. If some countries eventually require debt restructuring, this will be more difficult to achieve than in the past. Climate change may increase commodity price volatility, creating challenges for the almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that rely heavily on commodity exports and highlighting the need for asset diversification. Social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in inequality caused by the pandemic. These challenges underscore the importance of strengthened global cooperation to promote a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery path.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2021

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-21) World Bank Group

Commodity prices have risen to high levels by historical standards. Energy prices have increased sharply, especially for natural gas and coal, while most non-energy prices have plateaued after steep increases earlier in the year. Crude oil prices are forecast to average $74/bbl in 2022, up from a projected $70/bbl in 2021. After registering more than 48 percent increase this year, metal prices are projected to decline 5 percent in 2022. Agricultural prices, which are projected to rise more than 20 percent this year, are expected to broadly stabilize in 2022. These forecasts are subject to substantial risks, from adverse weather, further supply constraints, or additional outbreaks of COVID-19. Energy prices are particularly at risk of additional volatility in the near-term given low inventory levels. A Special Focus section explores the impact of urbanization on commodity demand. Although cities are often associated with increased demand for energy commodities (and hence greenhouse gas emissions) the report finds that high-density cities, particularly in advanced economies, can have lower per capita energy demand than low-density cities. As the share of people living in urban areas is expected to continue to rise, these results highlight the need for strategic urban planning to maximize the beneficial elements of cities and mitigate their negative impacts.
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-06-08) World Bank

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominently among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2021: Causes and Consequences of Metal Price Shocks

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-20) World Bank Group

Commodity prices continued to recover in the first quarter of 2021 from lows reached in 2020, supported by the global economic recovery, improved growth prospects, and supply factors specific to crude oil, copper, and some food commodities. Looking ahead, oil prices are forecast to average $56/bbl in 2021, 36 percent higher than in 2020, and see a further rise to $60/bbl in 2022 as demand continues to recover. Metal prices are expected to average 30 percent higher in 2021 than in 2020 on the back of strong demand before dropping back somewhat in 2022. Agriculture prices are forecast to average nearly 14 percent higher in 2021, driven by a few food commodities, and are expected to stabilize thereafter. A Special Focus section examines the impact of metal price shocks on metal-exporting countries. Since global metal prices are predominantly driven by global demand shocks, metal price swings can amplify the impact of global downturns and recessions—or conversely, upturns—for metal exporters. Metal price jumps are associated with small, temporary gains from price increases for metal exporters, but metal price collapses tend to lead to larger, and longerlasting, output losses.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-22) World Bank Group

Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices.
Global Economic Prospects, June 2020

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-06-08) World Bank

The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers’ immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2020

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-23) World Bank Group

Almost all commodity prices saw sharp declines during the past three months as the COVID-19 pandemic worsened. Mitigation measures have significantly reduced transport, causing an unprecedented decline in demand for oil, while weaker economic growth will further reduce overall commodity demand. Crude oil prices are expected to average $35/bbl this year and $42/bbl in 2021—sharp downward revisions from October. Metals prices are projected to drop more than 13 percent in 2020, before recovering in 2021, while food prices are expected to remain broadly stable. The price forecasts are subject to significant risks. A Special Focus looks at the impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets and finds that its effects have already been larger than most previous events and may lead to long-term shifts in global commodity markets. Another section looks at international commodity production agreements and concludes that while the current OPEC arrangement may stabilize oil markets in the short term, it will likely be subject to the same shortcomings of earlier efforts to manage commodity supplies in due course.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2019

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10-29) World Bank Group

Commodity Markets Outlook provides market analysis for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report forecasts prices for 46 key commodities, including oil. It is published in April and October. The October 2019 report has a special focus on the role of substitution in commodity demand.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2019

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04-23) World Bank Group

Commodity Markets Outlook provides market analysis for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report forecasts prices for 46 key commodities, including oil. It is published in April and October. The April 2019 report has a special focus on food prices.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2019: Darkening Skies

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-01-08) World Bank

Global economic prospects have darkened. Financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, and trade tensions remain elevated. The recovery in emerging market and developing economies has stalled, and some countries have experienced significant financial stress. Downside risks have increased, including the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and escalating trade disputes. It is thus critical to rebuild policy buffers while fostering potential growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing informality. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the challenges posed by informality and associated policy options. The report also contains pieces on the remarkable decline in inflation in emerging market and developing economies over the past decades, rising debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, and the implications of large spikes in food prices for poverty. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.