Corporate Flagships

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The current corporate publications that are World Bank Group flagships are: World Development Report (WDR); Global Economic Prospects (GEP), Doing Business (DB), and Poverty and Shared Prosperity (PSP). All go through a formal Bank-wide review and are discussed with the Board prior to their release. In terms of branding, the phrase “A World Bank Group Flagship Report” will be used exclusively on the cover of these publications. This label will signal that the institution assumes a higher level of responsibility for the positions held by these reports. The flagship Global Monitoring Report (GMR) is no longer produced. The flagship Doing Business is no longer produced.

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Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2023: Lower Prices, Little Relief

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-04-27) World Bank Group

Global commodity prices fell 14 percent in the first quarter of 2023, and by the end of March, they were roughly 30 percent below their June 2022 peak. The unwinding of prices reflects a combination of slowing economic activity, favorable winter weather, and a global reallocation of commodity trade flows. Commodity prices are expected to fall by 21 percent this year and remain mostly stable in 2024, although the outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. These risks include intensification of geopolitical tensions, the strength of demand from China following its post-COVID reopening, likely energy supply disruptions, and weather conditions, including the emerging El Niño. A Special Focus section evaluates the performance of several approaches used to forecast prices of seven industrial commodities. It finds that futures prices, which are widely used for price forecasts, often lead to large forecast errors. Time-series models based on multiple independent variables tend to outperform other model-based approaches as well as futures prices. Machine-learning techniques yield better forecasts than some of the traditional approaches. The analysis suggests that augmenting model-based forecasting approaches—by incorporating the dynamics of commodity prices over time and controlling for other economic factors—enhances forecast accuracy.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022: Pandemic, War, Recession : Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10-26) World Bank Group

A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. Some energy prices remain elevated, however, amid geopolitical tensions and persistent supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $92/bbl in 2023 and ease to $80/bbl in 2024. Agricultural and metal prices are projected to decline 5 and 15 percent, respectively, in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. The outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. They include worsening global growth prospects, including the pace of recovery in China; macroeconomic uncertainties; a prolonged and deeper conflict in Ukraine; and, in the case of food commodities, the ongoing La Niña weather pattern along with trade policies. A Special Focus section investigates the drivers of aluminum and copper prices. It finds that the price rebound after the pandemic was mainly driven by the economic recovery, but supply factors also contributed about one-quarter to the rebound. Since March 2022, a steep global growth slowdown, an unwinding of supply constraints, and concerns about an imminent global recession contributed to the plunge in metal prices. It concludes that for metal exporters, the energy transition may bring windfalls, but it could also increase their exposure to price volatility.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2022

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-01-11) World Bank

The global recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market and developing economies will remain markedly below pre-pandemic trends over the forecast horizon. The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new COVID-19 outbreaks, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels. If some countries eventually require debt restructuring, this will be more difficult to achieve than in the past. Climate change may increase commodity price volatility, creating challenges for the almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that rely heavily on commodity exports and highlighting the need for asset diversification. Social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in inequality caused by the pandemic. These challenges underscore the importance of strengthened global cooperation to promote a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery path.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2021

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-21) World Bank Group

Commodity prices have risen to high levels by historical standards. Energy prices have increased sharply, especially for natural gas and coal, while most non-energy prices have plateaued after steep increases earlier in the year. Crude oil prices are forecast to average $74/bbl in 2022, up from a projected $70/bbl in 2021. After registering more than 48 percent increase this year, metal prices are projected to decline 5 percent in 2022. Agricultural prices, which are projected to rise more than 20 percent this year, are expected to broadly stabilize in 2022. These forecasts are subject to substantial risks, from adverse weather, further supply constraints, or additional outbreaks of COVID-19. Energy prices are particularly at risk of additional volatility in the near-term given low inventory levels. A Special Focus section explores the impact of urbanization on commodity demand. Although cities are often associated with increased demand for energy commodities (and hence greenhouse gas emissions) the report finds that high-density cities, particularly in advanced economies, can have lower per capita energy demand than low-density cities. As the share of people living in urban areas is expected to continue to rise, these results highlight the need for strategic urban planning to maximize the beneficial elements of cities and mitigate their negative impacts.
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-06-08) World Bank

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominently among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2021: Causes and Consequences of Metal Price Shocks

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-20) World Bank Group

Commodity prices continued to recover in the first quarter of 2021 from lows reached in 2020, supported by the global economic recovery, improved growth prospects, and supply factors specific to crude oil, copper, and some food commodities. Looking ahead, oil prices are forecast to average $56/bbl in 2021, 36 percent higher than in 2020, and see a further rise to $60/bbl in 2022 as demand continues to recover. Metal prices are expected to average 30 percent higher in 2021 than in 2020 on the back of strong demand before dropping back somewhat in 2022. Agriculture prices are forecast to average nearly 14 percent higher in 2021, driven by a few food commodities, and are expected to stabilize thereafter. A Special Focus section examines the impact of metal price shocks on metal-exporting countries. Since global metal prices are predominantly driven by global demand shocks, metal price swings can amplify the impact of global downturns and recessions—or conversely, upturns—for metal exporters. Metal price jumps are associated with small, temporary gains from price increases for metal exporters, but metal price collapses tend to lead to larger, and longerlasting, output losses.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2021

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-01-05) World Bank

Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period. Several risks cloud the outlook, including those related to the pandemic and to rapidly rising debt. The pandemic has further diminished already-weak growth prospects for the next decade. Decisive policy actions will be critical in raising the likelihood of better growth outcomes while warding off worse ones. Immediate priorities include supporting vulnerable groups and ensuring a prompt and widespread vaccination process to bring the pandemic under control. Although macroeconomic policy support will continue to be important, limited fiscal policy space amid high debt highlights the need for an ambitious reform agenda that bolsters growth prospects. To address many of these challenges, global cooperation will be key.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-22) World Bank Group

Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2020

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-23) World Bank Group

Almost all commodity prices saw sharp declines during the past three months as the COVID-19 pandemic worsened. Mitigation measures have significantly reduced transport, causing an unprecedented decline in demand for oil, while weaker economic growth will further reduce overall commodity demand. Crude oil prices are expected to average $35/bbl this year and $42/bbl in 2021—sharp downward revisions from October. Metals prices are projected to drop more than 13 percent in 2020, before recovering in 2021, while food prices are expected to remain broadly stable. The price forecasts are subject to significant risks. A Special Focus looks at the impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets and finds that its effects have already been larger than most previous events and may lead to long-term shifts in global commodity markets. Another section looks at international commodity production agreements and concludes that while the current OPEC arrangement may stabilize oil markets in the short term, it will likely be subject to the same shortcomings of earlier efforts to manage commodity supplies in due course.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2020: Slow Growth, Policy Challenges

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-01-08) World Bank

Global growth is projected to be slightly faster in 2020 than the post-crisis low registered last year. While growth could be stronger if reduced trade tensions mitigate uncertainty, the balance of risks to the outlook is to the downside. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is also expected to remain subdued, continuing a decade of disappointing outcomes. A steep and widespread productivity growth slowdown has been underway in these economies since the global financial crisis, despite the largest, fastest, and most broad-based accumulation of debt since the 1970s. In addition, many emerging market and developing economies, including low-income countries, face the challenge of phasing out price controls that impose heavy fiscal cost and dampen investment. These circumstances add urgency to the need to implement measures to rebuild macroeconomic policy space and to undertake reforms to rekindle productivity growth. These efforts need to be supplemented by policies to promote inclusive and sustainable long-term growth and accelerate poverty alleviation.