Corporate Flagships
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The current corporate publications that are World Bank Group flagships are: World Development Report (WDR); Global Economic Prospects (GEP), Doing Business (DB), and Poverty and Shared Prosperity (PSP). All go through a formal Bank-wide review and are discussed with the Board prior to their release. In terms of branding, the phrase “A World Bank Group Flagship Report” will be used exclusively on the cover of these publications. This label will signal that the institution assumes a higher level of responsibility for the positions held by these reports. The flagship Global Monitoring Report (GMR) is no longer produced. The flagship Doing Business is no longer produced.
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Publication
Global Economic Prospects, June 2014: Shifting Priorities, Building for the Future
(Washington, DC, 2014-06)The global economy got off to a bumpy start this year, but growth in 2015 and 2016 looks to be broadly on track. Projections for developing countries in 2014 have been down downgraded by 0.5 percentage points to 4.8 percent mainly reflecting weak first quarter growth in the US due to weather and the conflict in Ukraine. Going forward growth is projected to firm to 5.3 and 5.5 percent in 2015 and 2016 supported by easy global financial conditions and rebounding exports as high-income countries continue to recover under the influence of a reduced drag from fiscal consolidation and improving labor markets. Financial conditions will eventually tighten, and when they do there is risk of further volatility. Most developing countries are in good fiscal and financial shape, but where vulnerabilities remain countries need to tighten policy to reduce the potential impact of external shocks. Overall, growth for developing countries will be solid but not strong enough to generate the income and employment gains needed to eliminate poverty by 2013. As a result, countries need to focus on structural reform in order to lift growth in and enduring and sustainable manner. -
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Global Economic Prospects, January 2014: Coping with Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries
(Washington, DC, 2014-01-16)High-income economies appear to be finally turning the corner, contributing to a projected acceleration in global growth from 2.4 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent this year, 3.4 percent in 2015, and 3.5 percent in 2016. Overall, growth in developing countries is projected to pick up modestly from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent this year, 5.5 percent in 2015, and 5.7 percent in 2016. In the baseline, the withdrawal of quantitative easing (and its effect on the long end of U.S. interest rates) is assumed to follow a relatively slow orderly trajectory. If, however, the taper is met with an abrupt market adjustment, capital inflows could weaken sharply—placing renewed stress on vulnerable developing economies. In a scenario where long-term interest rates rise rapidly by 100 basis points, capital inflows could decline by as much as 50 percent for several quarters. -
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Global Economic Prospects, June 2013: Less Volatile, but Slower Growth
(Washington, DC, 2013-06-12)The global economy appears to be transitioning toward a more stable period. Although acute risks have diminished, real-side activity remains sluggish – especially in high-income Europe. Most developing countries have fully recovered from the crisis. Although growth is slower than during the boom period, it is in line with underlying potential, and output is projected to pick up only gradually to around 5.8 percent by 2015. High unemployment and spare capacity remain pressing problems in developing Europe and the Middle East and North Africa. With a more stable external environment, new risks and challenges are gaining prominence, including the potential impact on exporting countries of a faster than anticipated decline in commodity prices, the possibility that the eventual withdrawal of quantitative easing exposes vulnerabilities in developing countries, and the need to resort increasingly to supply-side rather than demand stimulus policies to achieve stronger growth. -
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Global Economic Prospects, January 2013: Assuring Growth Over the Medium Term
(Washington, DC, 2013-01-15)More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, high-income countries struggle to restructure their economies and regain fiscal sustainability. Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the pre-crisis period, have been affected by the weakness in high-income countries. To regain pre-crisis growth rates, they will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand stimulus. Although the major risks to the global economy are similar to those of a year ago, the likelihood that they will materialize has diminished, as has the magnitude of estimated impacts should these events occur. Major downside risks include the loss of access to capital markets by vulnerable Euro Area countries, lack of agreement on U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, and commodity price shocks. In an environment of slow growth and continued volatility, a steady hand is required in developing countries to avoid pro-cyclical policy and to rebuild macroeconomic buffers so that authorities can react in the case of new external or domestic shocks. -
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Global Economic Prospects, June 2012: Managing Growth in a Volatile World
(Washington, DC, 2012-06)The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis. -
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Global Economic Prospects, January 2012: Uncertainties and Vulnerabilities
(Washington, DC, 2012-01)The world economy has entered a dangerous period. Some of the financial turmoil in Europe has spread to developing and other high-income countries, which until earlier had been unaffected. This contagion has pushed up borrowing costs in many parts of the world, and pushed down stock markets, while capital flows to developing countries have fallen sharply. Europe appears to have entered recession. At the same time, growth in several major developing countries (Brazil, India and, to a lesser extent, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) is significantly slower than it was earlier in the recovery, mainly reflecting policy tightening initiated in late 2010 and early 2011 in order to combat rising inflationary pressures. As a result, and despite a strengthening of activity in the United States and Japan, global growth and world trade have slowed sharply. -
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Global Economic Prospects, June 2011: Maintaining Progress Amid Turmoil
( 2011-06)The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majorities of developing countries has, or are close to having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sartorial factors are now the dominant factors underpinning growth. Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to come through the crisis so well. In contrast, activity in high income and some developing European countries continues to struggle with crisis-related problems, including banking-sector, fiscal and household restructuring. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, inflation, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. This is followed by a more detailed discussion of some of the risks and tensions in the current environment, and a short section of concluding remarks. Several annexes address regional and sartorial issues in much greater detail. -
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Global Economic Prospects, January 2011: Navigating Strong Currents
(Washington, DC, 2011-01)Economic activity in most developing countries has, or is close to having, recovered. Supported by resurgence in international and domestic financial flows and higher commodity prices, most of the spare capacity in developing countries that was created by the crisis has been reabsorbed, and developing countries have regained trend growth rates close to those observed in the pre-crisis period. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. The global economy is transitioning from the bounce-back phase of the recovery toward a period of slower but more sustainable growth. Growth in most developing countries is increasingly running into capacity constraints, while in high-income and developing Europe and Central Asia growth is hampered by the concentrated nature of slack and ongoing restructuring. In this environment, policy needs to be moving away from short-term demand stimulus toward measures that generate additional employment by enhancing the supply potential of economies. The global policy environment has become highly charged and uncertain, and presents multiple risks to prospects for developing countries. As emphasized at the recent G-20 meetings in Seoul (G-20 2010), both developing and high-income countries will need to take care to minimize the negative external consequences of their domestic policy actions. Concretely, this means that while countries must remain mindful of domestic conditions, when opportunities present themselves to pursue domestic policy objectives in a manner that support adjustment elsewhere in the global economy these should be taken up. -
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Global Economic Prospects, June 2010: Fiscal Headwinds and Recovery
(Washington, DC, 2010-06)Market nervousness concerning the fiscal positions of several European high-income countries poses a new challenge for the world economy. This arises as the recovery is transitioning toward a more mature phase during which the influence of rebound factors (such as fiscal stimulus) fades, and gross domestic product (GDP) gains will increasingly depend on private investment and consumption. So far evolving financial developments in Europe have had limited effects on financial conditions in developing countries. Although global equity markets dropped between 8 and 17 percent, there has been little fallout on most developing-country risk premia. And despite a sharp deceleration in bond flows in May, year-to-date capital flows to developing countries during the first 5 months of 2010 are up 90 percent from the same period in 2009. The economic impact on long-term growth in developing countries of a forced pullback from growth-enhancing infrastructure and human-capital investment due to lower fiscal revenues, weaker official development assistance (ODA), and sluggish capital flows, are difficult to gauge, as are the effects on private sector growth of tighter financial sector regulations, and increased competition for capital from high-income sovereigns. Global economic prospects: crisis, finance and growth estimated that just the latter two factors could reduce developing country growth rates by between 0.2 and 0.7 percent for a period of 5 to 7 years. -
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Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2001
(Washington, DC, 2001)Technological innovations and the dismantling of trade barriers over the past decade have contributed to an acceleration of growth in global trade. This acceleration has been associated with faster growth in developing countries as a group. However, many of the poorest countries have not kept pace. This year's report focuses on international trade and discusses policies that are required if developing countries are to benefit from global integration. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 examines the prospects for developing countries and world trade and projects that long-term growth has improved and is projected to be higher despite significant vulnerabilities. Chapter 2 analyzes trade policies in the 1990s and discusses reductions in barriers to trade, trends in trade and economic growth, weaknesses in domestic trade-related policies, and trade protection in industrial countries. Chapter 3 explores the relationships between product standards and regulatory barriers to trade, labor standards and trade sanctions, and environmental standards and trade. Finally, Chapter 4 focuses on electronic commerce, the digital divide, and its effects on productivity, international trade, and income distribution, as well as impediments to Internet use, the role of policies, and challenges to regulatory regimes in developing countries.