Corporate Flagships

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The current corporate publications that are World Bank Group flagships are: World Development Report (WDR); Global Economic Prospects (GEP), Poverty and Shared Prosperity (PSP), Women, Business and the Law (WBL) and Business Ready. All go through a formal Bank-wide review and are discussed with the Board prior to their release. In terms of branding, the phrase “A World Bank Group Flagship Report” will be used exclusively on the cover of these publications. This label will signal that the institution assumes a higher level of responsibility for the positions held by these reports.

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Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2021
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-21) World Bank Group
Commodity prices have risen to high levels by historical standards. Energy prices have increased sharply, especially for natural gas and coal, while most non-energy prices have plateaued after steep increases earlier in the year. Crude oil prices are forecast to average $74/bbl in 2022, up from a projected $70/bbl in 2021. After registering more than 48 percent increase this year, metal prices are projected to decline 5 percent in 2022. Agricultural prices, which are projected to rise more than 20 percent this year, are expected to broadly stabilize in 2022. These forecasts are subject to substantial risks, from adverse weather, further supply constraints, or additional outbreaks of COVID-19. Energy prices are particularly at risk of additional volatility in the near-term given low inventory levels. A Special Focus section explores the impact of urbanization on commodity demand. Although cities are often associated with increased demand for energy commodities (and hence greenhouse gas emissions) the report finds that high-density cities, particularly in advanced economies, can have lower per capita energy demand than low-density cities. As the share of people living in urban areas is expected to continue to rise, these results highlight the need for strategic urban planning to maximize the beneficial elements of cities and mitigate their negative impacts.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2021: Causes and Consequences of Metal Price Shocks
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-20) World Bank Group
Commodity prices continued to recover in the first quarter of 2021 from lows reached in 2020, supported by the global economic recovery, improved growth prospects, and supply factors specific to crude oil, copper, and some food commodities. Looking ahead, oil prices are forecast to average $56/bbl in 2021, 36 percent higher than in 2020, and see a further rise to $60/bbl in 2022 as demand continues to recover. Metal prices are expected to average 30 percent higher in 2021 than in 2020 on the back of strong demand before dropping back somewhat in 2022. Agriculture prices are forecast to average nearly 14 percent higher in 2021, driven by a few food commodities, and are expected to stabilize thereafter. A Special Focus section examines the impact of metal price shocks on metal-exporting countries. Since global metal prices are predominantly driven by global demand shocks, metal price swings can amplify the impact of global downturns and recessions—or conversely, upturns—for metal exporters. Metal price jumps are associated with small, temporary gains from price increases for metal exporters, but metal price collapses tend to lead to larger, and longerlasting, output losses.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-22) World Bank Group
Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2020
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-23) World Bank Group
Almost all commodity prices saw sharp declines during the past three months as the COVID-19 pandemic worsened. Mitigation measures have significantly reduced transport, causing an unprecedented decline in demand for oil, while weaker economic growth will further reduce overall commodity demand. Crude oil prices are expected to average $35/bbl this year and $42/bbl in 2021—sharp downward revisions from October. Metals prices are projected to drop more than 13 percent in 2020, before recovering in 2021, while food prices are expected to remain broadly stable. The price forecasts are subject to significant risks. A Special Focus looks at the impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets and finds that its effects have already been larger than most previous events and may lead to long-term shifts in global commodity markets. Another section looks at international commodity production agreements and concludes that while the current OPEC arrangement may stabilize oil markets in the short term, it will likely be subject to the same shortcomings of earlier efforts to manage commodity supplies in due course.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2019
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10-29) World Bank Group
Commodity Markets Outlook provides market analysis for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report forecasts prices for 46 key commodities, including oil. It is published in April and October. The October 2019 report has a special focus on the role of substitution in commodity demand.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2019
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04-23) World Bank Group
Commodity Markets Outlook provides market analysis for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report forecasts prices for 46 key commodities, including oil. It is published in April and October. The April 2019 report has a special focus on food prices.
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2018
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019) World Bank Group
Commodity prices in the third quarter of 2018 were buffeted by geopolitical and macroeconomic events. Energy prices gained 3 percent in 2018 Q3 (q/q), partly in response to the impending re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the United States along with continuing declines in production in Venezuela. As a result, crude oil prices are expected to average $72 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and $74/bbl in 2019. This represents a sizable upward revision from the April 2018 forecast. Moreover, risks to the oil price forecast are to the upside in the short-term, given the recent decline in spare capacity. In contrast, metal and agricultural prices declined 10 and 7 percent, respectively, in the third quarter of 2018 amid robust supplies and trade disputes. Metal prices are expected to stabilize in 2019 whereas agricultural prices are expected to gain almost 2 percent. This edition also examines how energy and metal commodity markets have evolved over the past 20 years. It shows that China has been the main driver of commodity demand growth, particularly for coal and metals, but that its demand is likely to slow while other emerging market economies are unlikely to emulate China.
Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2018
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-04-24) World Bank Group
Commodity prices strengthened in the first quarter of 2018. Broad-based price increases were supported by both demand and supply factors. Accelerating global growth lifted demand for commodities, while a number of commodities faced supply constraints. For oil and precious metals, concerns about mounting geopolitical risk also supported prices. Crude oil prices are expected to average $65 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and remain at $65/bbl in 2019—an upward revision from the October 2017 forecast. Metals prices are expected to increase 9 percent in 2018 and, following three years of relative stability, agricultural prices are expected to gain 2 percent in 2018. Looking ahead, policy actions currently under discussion, such as additional tariffs, production cuts, and sanctions, present risks to the short-term outlook. This edition also analyzes the policies of oil exporting economies in response to the 2014 oil price collapse. It concludes that oil exporters with flexible currency regimes, larger fiscal buffers, and more diversified economies fared better than others. The experience of the past four years is a reminder of the urgent need for greater economic diversification and stronger monetary and fiscal policy frameworks in oil exporters.