01. Annual Reports & Independent Evaluations

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The World Bank Group’s 2018 Capital Increase Package - An Independent Validation of Implementation and Results

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-08-29) Independent Evaluation Group

This report presents the Independent Evaluation Group’s validation of the World Bank Group’s 2018 capital increase package (CIP). It assesses the World Bank Group’s progress in implementing the CIP’s policy measures and achieving its targets, as well as the quality of management’s CIP reporting. The 2018 CIP boosted the Bank Group’s financial firepower with a $7.5 billion paid-in capital increase for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), $5.5 billion paid-in capital increase for the International Finance Corporation (IFC), $52.6 billion callable capital increase for IBRD, and internal savings measures. The CIP also included a policy package that committed Bank Group management to policy actions linked to the Bank Group’s 2016 Forward Look strategy. The CIP committed to reporting annually on its implementation and an independent assessment after five years. This report fulfills the commitment to an independent assessment. This validation builds on management’s own reporting and other complementary evidence to assess the World Bank Group’s progress in implementing the CIP’s policy measures and achieving its targets. The report also assesses the quality of management’s CIP reporting. The report points to lessons on developing, implementing, and reporting corporate initiatives and commitments, such as the importance of having clear strategies or action plans, explicit buy-in from senior management, and accurate reporting with meaningful indicators and realistic targets.
Adaptive Social Protection for Effective Crisis Response: Independent Evaluation Group Evaluation of the World Bank’s Contribution (Approach Paper)

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-24) World Bank

Interconnected and often devastating covariate shocks are a threat to human development. Covariate shocks are shocks that affect large numbers of people or communities at once and can be natural, economic, or political. Occurrence and the human devastation from natural disasters has increased over the last 50 years, and the negative impacts of climate change are expected to exacerbate this trend. Poor households are particularly vulnerable to covariate shocks because they lack adequate capacity to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to shocks. Covariate shocks can also impoverish vulnerable households when their capacity to prepare, cope, and adapt is overwhelmed. Covariate shocks vary in magnitude, speed of onset, predictability, and duration, and thus these aspects should be considered when designing the most appropriate social protection response. Moreover, the needs and challenges that vulnerable and directly affected populations face will have implications for social protection systems. Adaptive social protection (ASP) builds resilience by helping poor and vulnerable households prepare for, cope with, and adapt to covariate shocks. The purpose of this evaluation is twofold: (i) assess whether the World Bank support for social protection has incorporated adaptive elements over time, and (ii) assess how effective the World Bank has been at helping client countries make their social protection systems more adaptive.
World Bank Support to Georgia, Fiscal Years 2014-23: Country Program Evaluation (Approach Paper)

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-10) Independent Evaluation Group

The Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will seek to assess how well the Bank Group–supported strategy was aligned with Georgia’s main development challenges and how effective the Bank Group’s support was in addressing these challenges. The evaluation seeks to identify lessons that support the further adaptation and refinement of Bank Group engagement in support of the country’s development priorities.
International Finance Corporation Platforms Approach: Addressing Development Challenges at Scale - An Independent Evaluation (Approach Paper)

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-03) World Bank

Recurring development challenges and new compounding crises affecting client countries and firms constrain the ambition of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to contribute to attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. The recurring challenges, including insufficient private sector participation in development financing, continue to affect emerging markets and developing economies and the firms within them. Two related initiatives—the IFC capital increase and the IFC 3.0 strategy—underpin IFC’s goal to contribute to the SDGs by 2030. IFC’s capital increase package was based on the IFC 3.0 strategy, which requires creating new markets through advisory and upstream services and mobilizing private capital from new sources and through new approaches (IFC 2017, 2018, 2020a). IFC has introduced a platforms approach to scale up its interventions in accordance with IFC 3.0 and the capital increase objectives. IFC defines platforms as thematic interventions—at a regional, global, or sectoral level—designed to address a specific development challenge (IFC 2022b). The main purpose of the evaluation is to assess whether the platforms approach offers IFC a means to achieve its capital increase and IFC 3.0 objectives while meeting the Board’s and clients’ expectations.
Focused Assessment of the International Development Association’s Private Sector Window: An Update to the 2021 Early-Stage Assessment by the Independent Evaluation Group (Approach Paper)

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-27) Independent Evaluation Group

Attracting private capital and developing the private sector in low-income countries are challenging. The challenges involved in mobilizing private capital and developing the private sector in many IDA countries, especially those that are fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), are substantial (World Bank 2016). In many of these countries, the domestic private sector is small, informal, and constrained by a weak macroeconomic and regulatory environment, infrastructure bottlenecks, and a limited skilled labor force. High country risks and capital flight concerns make domestic and international investors reluctant to engage, particularly in FCS, which also experience security risks. As a result, IDA countries’ ability to attract private investment and grow the local private sector remains limited. The assessment will update a previous IEG evaluation of the Private Sector Window (PSW) and complement a concurrent paper by the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). This focused assessment (the PSW evaluation update) responds to a request by the Committee on Development Effectiveness and World Bank Group management for IEG to prepare an update to The World Bank Group’s Experience with the IDA Private Sector Window: An Early-Stage Assessment (World Bank 2021), which was completed by IEG in July 2021 and covered the PSW implementation experience under the 18th Replenishment of IDA (IDA18) for fiscal years 2018–20. The PSW evaluation update will add IDA19 and early IDA20 PSW projects. Concurrently, IDA, IFC, and MIGA are jointly preparing a paper on the PSW as an input to the IDA20 Mid-Term Review, focused on implementation progress and early results of the PSW (the IDA PSW paper). The IEG and IDA-IFC-MIGA teams working on the two assessments have agreed to conduct complementary analyses to inform the Mid-Term Review.
The World Bank Group’s Engagement in Morocco, Fiscal Years 2011–21: Country Program Evaluation

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-21) Independent Evaluation Group

This Country Program Evaluation assesses the development effectiveness of the World Bank Group’s support to Morocco between fiscal year FY11 and FY21. The report evaluates the World Bank Group’s contribution in solving four systemic constraints to Morocco’s development: (i) lack of policy coherence with the country’s development aspirations; (ii) an uneven economic playing field that favors some firms and stateowned enterprises (SOEs), creates rent-seeking behaviors, and discourages new entrants; (iii) weak policy implementation caused by the limited public sector capacity to carry out reforms; and (iv) weak citizen, labor force, and subnational participation in the country’s development. This evaluation identifies lessons to guide future World Bank engagement in Morocco, including: (a) at times, it is possible for the World Bank to gain traction in Morocco’s policy reforms by trading recognition for influence; (b) global benchmarking data can be effectively utilized to motivate reforms; (c) IFC can significantly impact the business environment and financial architecture reforms by effectively deploying its advisory work to influence major companies, including SOEs, in making institutional changes; (d) the experience of PforR operations in Morocco suggests that to maximize their effectiveness, the World Bank needs to proactively involve the full range of stakeholders and ensure resources are deployed for technical assistance gaps; and (e) engagement at the subnational level requires the ability and willingness to take new risks and experiment with new approaches.
FY 2023 North Macedonia Country Opinion Survey Report

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-25) World Bank Group

The Country Opinion Survey in North Macedonia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in North Macedonia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in North Macedonia on 1) their views regarding the general environment in North Macedonia; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in North Macedonia; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in North Macedonia; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in North Macedonia.
FY 2022 Panama Country Opinion Survey Report

(Washington, DC, 2023-05-08) World Bank Group

The Country Opinion Survey in Panama assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Panama perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Panama on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Panama; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Panama; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Panama; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in Panama.
FY 2022 Angola Country Opinion Survey Report

(Washington, DC, 2023-05-08) World Bank Group

The Country Opinion Survey in Angola assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Angola perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Angola on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Angola; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in Angola; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in Angola; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in Angola.
The Rigor of Case-Based Causal Analysis: Busting Myths through a Demonstration

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-02) Raimondo, Estelle ; Vaessen, Jos ; Hagh, Ariya

Several myths persist within research and evaluation circles about the power and limitations of evaluation designs that use cases (or case studies) as their primary empirical material (case-based evaluation designs). Using a real-world application, this paper busts two myths regarding the use of case-based designs in evaluations that aim to answer effectiveness questions and unpack the relationships between interventions and observed changes in outcomes (broadly known as causal analysis): that case studies cannot be used for causal analysis and that it is impossible to generalize from case studies. Through a detailed demonstration of how the evaluation of the World Bank’s support to carbon finance has been designed and implemented, the paper undoes these preconceived ideas about the inferential, explanatory, and generalizability power of case-based evaluation designs.