01. Annual Reports & Independent Evaluations

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The Rigor of Case-Based Causal Analysis: Busting Myths through a Demonstration

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-02) Raimondo, Estelle ; Vaessen, Jos ; Hagh, Ariya

Several myths persist within research and evaluation circles about the power and limitations of evaluation designs that use cases (or case studies) as their primary empirical material (case-based evaluation designs). Using a real-world application, this paper busts two myths regarding the use of case-based designs in evaluations that aim to answer effectiveness questions and unpack the relationships between interventions and observed changes in outcomes (broadly known as causal analysis): that case studies cannot be used for causal analysis and that it is impossible to generalize from case studies. Through a detailed demonstration of how the evaluation of the World Bank’s support to carbon finance has been designed and implemented, the paper undoes these preconceived ideas about the inferential, explanatory, and generalizability power of case-based evaluation designs.
The World Bank’s Early Support to Addressing Coronavirus (COVID-19) Health and Social Response - An Early-Stage Evaluation

(Washington, DC, 2022-11-15) World Bank

This evaluation assesses the quality of the World Bank’s early response to the COVID-19 crisis and the initial steps toward recovery, focusing on the health and social response. It concentrates on the relief stage and support to restructure systems in the first 15 months of the pandemic (February 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021) in 106 countries. A parallel Independent Evaluation Group evaluation looks at the World Bank Group support to address the economic implications of the pandemic. To assess the quality of the response, the evaluation is guided by a theory of action that synthesizes evidence in three dimensions: relevance of support to the needs of countries; implementation, learning, and adjustment; and operational policy and partnerships to support smooth responses in countries. As the response is ongoing, the evaluation does not assess effectiveness but considers early results and pathways that are expected to lead to outcomes. The findings from the evaluation inform four recommendations for ensuring stronger future preparedness: (i) Use the World Bank’s crisis recovery efforts to strengthen the resilience of essential health and education. (ii) Apply a gender equality lens to health and social crisis response actions across sectors. (iii) Help countries strengthen regional cooperation and crisis response capacities for public health preparedness. (iv) Build on the COVID-19 experience to strengthen the World Bank’s internal crisis preparedness so that it has the tools and procedures ready to respond in future emergencies.
2022 Independent Evaluation Group Validation of the Management Action Record

(Washington, DC, 2022-10-05) World Bank

This document is Independent Evaluation Group’s (IEG) validation of the report entitled “Enhancing evidence-based learning for outcomes through the Management Action Record: A World Bank Group Management Report on Implementation of IEG Recommendations”. The Management Action Record (MAR) system supports accountability and learning in the follow-up of IEG evaluation recommendations by enabling meaningful tracking, self-assessment, and validation of Bank Group management’s implementation of IEG recommendations. The validation document covers IEG’s synthesis of progress toward achieving IEG evaluations’ intended outcomes and its assessment of the approach and evidence in management’s MAR report.
Poverty Mapping: Innovative Approaches to Creating Poverty Maps with New Data Sources

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08) Ziuli, Virginia ; Meckler, Jessica ; Hernández Licona, Gonzalo ; Vaessen, Jozef

Geographically disaggregated poverty data are vital for better understanding development issues and ensuring development efforts are directed to the places where they are most needed. Poverty has traditionally been measured by data on consumption, income, or assets. However, recent advances in computing power and the emergence of new methods has made it increasingly feasible to produce reliable, cost-effective, and timely poverty maps by extracting features from novel data sources such as satellite imagery, call detail records, and internet connectivity indicators. This paper explores the methodological implications of using both traditional and novel data sources to generate poverty maps. Specifically, it examines the applications of (i) survey and census data; (ii) Global System for Mobile Communications, smartphone, and Wi-Fi indicators; (iii) call detail records; (iv) daytime and nighttime remote sensing imagery; and (v) the Survey of Well-being via Instant and Frequent Tracking for poverty mapping. Each section provides a brief overview of the data requirements, methodology, and applicability considerations of the data source under consideration. In addition, the paper discusses the usefulness and limitations of each approach in the field of evaluation, providing concrete examples of poverty maps created from each of the listed data sources.
Approach Paper, Country Program Evaluation - Papua New Guinea: An Evaluation of World Bank Support FY08-22

(World Bank,Washington, DC, 2022-06-28) Independent Evaluation Group

This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the World Bank Group’s engagement in Papua New Guinea between FY08 and FY22. The Papua New Guinea has an abundant resource endowment of oil and mineral wealth, but this wealth has not translated into significant welfare gains for most citizens. Papua New Guinea’s fragmented geography and frequent exposure to disasters caused by natural hazards present significant challenges for delivering services to citizens. The evaluation is designed to derive lessons from Bank Group engagement in Papua New Guinea to inform the next Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The CPE will also provide lessons on the implementation of the International Development Association special themes of climate change, gender, and fragility, conflict, and violence and of the cross-cutting issues of debt sustainability and governance and institutions. Lessons may also be of relevance to other resource-rich countries.
Enhancing the Effectiveness of the World Bank’s Global Footprint: An Independent Evaluation

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-11) World Bank

*May 5, 2022: New version includes Green Sheet* The World Bank aims to further expand and adjust its global footprint by the mid-2020s, especially in lower-income countries and those affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). This first-of-its-kind evaluation assesses the effectiveness of the World Bank’s past decentralization efforts in a systematic way to inform the new expansion of the World Bank’s global footprint. Decentralization refers to the World Bank’s efforts to expand its global footprint by moving more staff, especially staff with operational and decision-making duties, to the field. The report examines the benefits and challenges of staff decentralization and makes recommendations to improve its process and outcomes, while also preserving the Bank’s global nature, which is one of its comparative strengths.
Meta-Evaluation of IEG Evaluations (FY15-19)

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-14) Independent Evaluation Group

IEG’s meta-evaluation serves as an input for the upcoming independent external review of its evaluations. The report focuses on aspects of credibility related to the rationale, focus, use of innovative methods, and various research design attributes as formulated in evaluation reports and their respective approach papers. Drawing on a set of 28 evaluations published from fiscal year 2015 to 2019, the meta-evaluation offers six major conclusions and suggestions based on a systematic review of evaluation scope, reliability, validity (including construct, internal, external, and data analysis validity), consistency, and the integration of innovative methods.
The International Finance Corporation’s and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency’s Support for Private Investment in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations, Fiscal Years 2010–21: An Independent Evaluation

(Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank

The World Bank Group estimates that, by 2030, up to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor will live in countries characterized by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). The Bank’s FCV strategy emphasizes the critical role the private sector plays in providing jobs and income in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) and its importance in contributing to sustainable development in FCS countries. Supporting investments in FCS has been a strategic priority for both the Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) for over a decade. In fact, IFC and MIGA adopted ambitious volume targets for investments and guarantees in International Development Association (IDA) and FCS countries. For instance, IFC committed to delivering 40% of its business volume in IDA and FCS countries, and 15–20% in low-income IDA and IDA FCS countries by 2030. MIGA committed to increasing the share of the volume of guarantees issued to projects in FCS and IDA countries to 30– 33% of its guarantee volume by FY23. But despite gradually deploying new tools and instruments in FCS, increasing investments in FCS has been challenging. This evaluation assesses IFC’s and MIGA’s effectiveness in supporting private investment and development impact in Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS) and identifies key factors constraining private investment in FCS and possible trade-offs that practitioners and policy-makers need to consider. Based on its findings, IEG makes three recommendations to strengthen the relevance and effectiveness of IFC’s and MIGA’s support to investments and private sector development in FCS.
The World Bank Annual Report 2022: Helping Countries Adapt to a Changing World

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022) World Bank

The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submit the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
The World Bank Annual Report 2021: From Crisis to Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Recovery

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-10-01) World Bank

The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submits the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.