01. Annual Reports & Independent Evaluations

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Making Waves: An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for the Blue Economy (2012–23) Approach Paper

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-03) Independent Evaluation Group

Marine and coastal resources are critical for human survival. The economies of many coastal developing countries and small island developing states rely heavily on maritime industries, associated trade, and tourism. In coastal and island developing countries, small-scale fisheries and other ocean sectors support a significant number of jobs and livelihood opportunities. Marine and coastal resources also provide critical ecosystem services on which the ocean economy relies. Yet historically, ocean-based sectors have expanded without sufficient consideration for sustainability, negatively impacting marine and coastal environments. Moreover, the negative impacts of climate change are exacerbating the serious threats posed to ocean economies. Coastal developing countries and small island developing state economies that heavily rely on tourism were negatively affected by COVID-19, and while there were some positive environmental effects, these have been short lived. Critical knowledge and skills gaps undermine the ability of many countries to sustainably manage their marine and coastal resources. Addressing the threats posed to marine and coastal resources is politically challenging since coastal areas attract many competing uses and diverging interests. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess how well the World Bank is supporting the sustainable and inclusive development of ocean and coastal economies to inform the future development of the blue economy approach.
The World Bank’s Role in and Use of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework: Independent Evaluation Group

(Washington, DC, 2023-05-02) World Bank

This evaluation, requested by the Committee on Development Effectiveness of the Executive Board of the International Development Association (IDA), is intended to provide input and insight into the upcoming World Bank–International Monetary Fund (IMF) review of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LICDSF) currently planned for fiscal year 2023. The sharp rise in debt stress among low-income countries and a changing global risk landscape leading up to and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed concerns with debt sustainability to the top of the global policy agenda. This evaluation assesses the World Bank’s inputs into the LIC-DSF and how it uses LIC-DSF outputs to inform various corporate and country-level decisions. Main findings and recommendations include: (i) Expectations of the World Bank in taking the lead on long-term growth prospects should be clarified. (ii) Recently increased attention to debt data coverage should be sustained and extended; greater attention is needed to assess data quality. (iii) The DSA should be more directly and consistently used to inform priorities for the identification of fiscally oriented prior actions in development policy operations and SDFP performance and policy actions. (iv) The World Bank should continue to give increasing attention in the LIC-DSF to the long-term implications of climate change, in terms of both growth and fiscal requirements of adaptation and mitigation.
Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan. First Progress Report: Forging Ahead on Development-Centered Climate Action

(World Bank, Washington DC, 2023-05-02) World Bank

The Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan (NGACBP), launched in 2020, provides a platform to further galvanize climate action by prioritizing its focus on Sub Saharan Africa’s development challenges and priorities. The plan focuses on food security, energy, and environmental and water security while also proactively supporting countries to manage climate shocks and harness the urban transition through climate smart pathways as core strategic directions. Strategic areas of emphasis include the cross-cutting issues of climate-informed macroeconomic policies and green and resilient infrastructure. Two years after the plan’s release, this progress report aims to provide an update on the status of the NG-ACBP, highlighting key accomplishments and success stories, defining emerging areas of engagement, and setting out a roadmap for the next four years of the plan’s delivery. The latter is especially important as we ensure full alignment with the International Development Association (IDA) 20 policy commitments, the World Bank’s Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP), and regional priorities for Eastern and Southern Africa (AFE) and Western and Central Africa (AFW).
World Bank Group Support to Somalia, Fiscal Years 2013–22 - Country Program Evaluation (Approach Paper, March 2, 2023)

(Washington, DC, 2023-03-22) World Bank ; Independent Evaluation Group

Somalia is today among the poorest and most fragile countries in the world, facing myriad development challenges related to ongoing conflict, climate change, food insecurity, natural disasters, and displacement. Overlapping crises related to the COVID-19 pandemic, a prolonged drought, and macroeconomic shocks from rising food and fuel costs have worsened socioeconomic conditions (World Bank 2022). Seventy-one percent of Somalis lived in extreme poverty in 2021, compared with 28 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank 2021). Average life expectancy was 57.4 years, and maternal mortality stood at 734 for every 100,000 births (World Bank 2018d). The country’s Sustainable Development Goal ranking was 160th out of 163. The Somalia Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the evolution of the World Bank Group’s support over fiscal years (FY)13–22 and the extent to which the Bank Group adequately prepared for an eventual normalization of relations with Somalia, tailored its support to the conflict and fragility situation in Somalia and evolving circumstances and country priorities, and learned from experience. It will seek to inform the preparation of the next Somalia Country Partnership Framework (CPF) and may be relevant to broader Bank Group engagement in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV).
The World Bank Group in Mozambique, Fiscal Years 2008-21 - Country Program Evaluation

(Washington, DC, 2023-03-22) World Bank

Between 1993 and 2013, Mozambique became one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa boosting incomes and living standards. Political and macroeconomic stability provided the foundation for robust growth led by a rebounding agricultural sector and significant donor support. Growth, however, decelerated beginning in 2016 in the face of low commodity prices, a hidden debt crisis, and natural disasters. In FY18, Mozambique was formally classified as a fragile country. The Covid-19 pandemic further eroded growth. In light of the country’s evolving context, this Country Program Evaluation (CPE) reviews the World Bank Group’s engagement in Mozambique over the period FY08 into FY21. The CPE assesses the extent to which the Bank Group’s support was relevant to Mozambique’s main development challenges and drivers of fragility as well as how Bank Group support evolved and adapted over time. The evaluation delves into four themes that are relevant to Mozambique’s pursuit of the Bank Group’s Twin Goals of Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity: (i) low agricultural productivity; (ii) unequal access to basic services; (iii) weak institutions and governance; and (iv) vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters. The evaluation presents findings from each of the four themes covered and distills lessons from Bank Group experience in Mozambique to inform future strategies and engagements.
Evaluation Insight Note: Transport Decarbonization

(Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank

Transport is a priority action area under the World Bank’s Climate Change Action Plan. Climate action in the transport sector is essential as the sector emits approximately 24 percent of the global total of energy-related carbon emissions and, without aggressive measures, the World Bank expects emissions from transport to grow 60 percent by 2050. This EIN was guided by the overall question: How has the World Bank been approaching transport decarbonization To answer this question, the note uses existing evidence from the self-evaluation system of the World Bank, including Implementation Completion and Results Reports prepared by the project teams and the associated Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) validations, relevant information from other project documents, literature from policy and academic sources, advisory services and analytics, country strategies, and existing IEG evaluations. This systematic review provided the basis for four main insights into the current patterns of World Bank work on transport decarbonization and the identification of a range of potential actions to exploit opportunities for decarbonization: (i) The World Bank has steadily increased the number of projects with decarbonization content, especially in low income countries, and has recently put together a strong knowledge base on transport decarbonization. (ii) Nevertheless, transport decarbonization in World Bank lending remains timid against the needed contributions to the Climate Change Action Plan. (iii) Country-specific decarbonization diagnostics and analytical work has been limited, and transport decarbonization seldom makes it onto the World Bank’s strategic country agenda. (iv) The World Bank has rarely measured transport decarbonization directly.
MIGA Annual Report 2022

(Washington, DC : Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, 2022-10-06) Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency

In FY22, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) issued 4.9 billion dollars in new guarantees across a record 54 projects. The projects focused on encouraging private investors to work with host governments by helping manage and mitigate political risks. Working with the clients and partners, the Bank supported 6.5 billion dollars in total financing (from private and public sources). Almost a third of our gross issuances supported projects in International Development Association (IDA) (lower-income) countries; 12 percent went to fragile and conflict-affected countries; and 28 percent of the total guaranteed investment of the projects supported contributed to climate finance. FY22 issuances are expected to help provide access to power to some 15 million people, support nearly 20,000 jobs, and enable 1.9 billion dollars in loans, including those for small and medium enterprises and climate-related activities. An institution of the World Bank Group, MIGA is committed to strong development impact and promotion of projects that are economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable. MIGA helps investors mitigate the risks of restrictions on currency conversion and transfer, breach of contract by governments, expropriation, and war and civil disturbance, as well as offering credit enhancement on sovereign obligations.
Reducing Disaster Risks from Natural Hazards: An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support, Fiscal Years 2010–20

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08-24) Independent Evaluation Group

Disasters caused by natural hazards are increasingly threatening the lives and livelihoods of the world’s poor and disaster-vulnerable populations. Climate change is further exacerbating the negative impacts of disasters caused by natural hazards. Investing in disaster risk reduction (DRR) has strong economic and social benefits and is essential for achieving climate change adaptation. IEG's evaluation shows that the World Bank is successfully supporting clients to increasingly take up DRR actions through strategic and comprehensive country engagement. The World Bank has developed an extensive portfolio of DRR activities, tripling its support over FY10-20. It focuses its DRR work on countries with the most serious natural hazards, uses synergistic pillars of DRR engagement, and increasingly mainstreams DRR into sector operations. Support for DRR in IDA, small island developing states, and IDA-FCV countries has been comprehensive. The Bank has also shifted from post-disaster response toward pre-disaster risk reduction. The Bank has shown that it is able to overcome political and financial constraints to DRR client uptake by engaging the right decision makers using rigorous evidence and by building on disaster reconstruction efforts. Analytical work that quantified risks, assessed costs and benefits and communicates impacts has highly influenced DRR uptake. However, there are gaps in coverage for some regions, sectors, and hazards that require attention. There are DRR coverage gaps in Europe and Central Asia and the Middle East and North Africa for all serious hazards. Also, while the World Bank is conducting analytical work on the needs of disaster vulnerable groups, there has been slow progress on incorporating their needs into operations. There are also missed opportunities to use conflict-sensitive approaches to mitigate conflict risks and pursue peace-building. Also, the Bank’s frequent inability to demonstrate the effects of its DRR activities on reduced exposure and vulnerability has consequences on its ability to make a development case for risk reduction. Most DRR operations are not providing sufficient information to establish the level of DRR being achieved, inhibiting an understanding of how DRR contributes to development impacts, such as reduced economic loss and mortality. IEG offers the World Bank four recommendations to improve their performance on disaster risk reduction: (i) Incorporate DRR activities in regions and sectors and for hazards that exhibit significant coverage gaps. (ii) Identify and measure the effects of DRR activities on exposure and vulnerability to strengthen the development case for clients facing serious disaster risks. (iii) Integrate the needs of populations disproportionately vulnerable to disasters caused by natural hazards into DRR project targeting and design, implementation, and results reporting. (iv) In countries affected by serious natural hazards and fragility and conflict risks, identify and assess the ways in which hazards and conflict interrelate and use this to inform country engagement and project design.
Approach Paper, Country Program Evaluation - Papua New Guinea: An Evaluation of World Bank Support FY08-22

(World Bank,Washington, DC, 2022-06-28) Independent Evaluation Group

This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the World Bank Group’s engagement in Papua New Guinea between FY08 and FY22. The Papua New Guinea has an abundant resource endowment of oil and mineral wealth, but this wealth has not translated into significant welfare gains for most citizens. Papua New Guinea’s fragmented geography and frequent exposure to disasters caused by natural hazards present significant challenges for delivering services to citizens. The evaluation is designed to derive lessons from Bank Group engagement in Papua New Guinea to inform the next Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The CPE will also provide lessons on the implementation of the International Development Association special themes of climate change, gender, and fragility, conflict, and violence and of the cross-cutting issues of debt sustainability and governance and institutions. Lessons may also be of relevance to other resource-rich countries.
The World Bank Group in Chad, Fiscal Years 2010–20: Country Program Evaluation

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-06-28) Independent Evaluation Group

This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) assesses the World Bank Group's development effectiveness in Chad over the past decade within a context of high fragility and extreme poverty. The report covers the implementation of the Interim Strategy Note (2010–12) and the Country Partnership Framework (16–20). This CPE draws lessons to inform the design and implementation of the next partnership strategy with Chad. IEG finds that World Bank Group's support to Chad was aligned with government priorities and World Bank diagnostics. Bank Group support helped advance several human development objectives. It especially increased access to health services, primary and secondary education, and social protection in targeted areas as well as gender equality. Notwithstanding the challenges inherent in working in a fragile and conflict-affected situation, the performance of the Bank Group portfolio in Chad was weak. Timely budget support helped stave off an imminent fiscal crisis but did not achieve sustained reform. Few results were achieved in agriculture, infrastructure, and public resource management. Overall, performance was undermined by procurement delays, high turnover of government counterparts, and a lack of continuity in World Bank staff working on Chad. The following three lessons are offered for consideration. First, timely and targeted analytical work is necessary to inform priority setting, policy dialogue, and the design of reforms. Given the prevalence of capacity and absorptive constraints, it is essential to strategically prioritize analytical work to help identify and understand the most binding constraints to development gains and inform efforts to address them. Second, procurement challenges warrant greater attention to address the underlying political and bureaucratic obstacles, which will require a higher-level dialogue with the government. Lastly, although working in Chad is challenging, it is critical to strengthen incentives to attract and retain talent. This is needed to improve continuity of engagement with country authorities and compensate for weak client capacity, including the high turnover of government officials.