01. Annual Reports & Independent Evaluations
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Publication
International Finance Corporation Additionality in Middle-Income Countries: An Independent Evaluation April 17, 2022
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-03)Additionality is a core feature of private sector development finance institutions (DFIs). It is the unique contribution that a DFI or a multilateral/ bilateral bank brings to a private investment project that is not offered by commercial sources of finance. The key idea is that the investment project should add value without crowding out private sector activity. Identifying and articulating project additionality is particularly important in middle- income countries (MICs) since financial markets in MICs are more developed, and private investment far exceeds official development assistance. This evaluation report examines the relevance and effectiveness of IFC’s approach to additionality in MICs and seeks to explain the factors that contribute to or constrain its realization. While the evaluation focuses on IFC’s additionality on the level of the project, it also applies the lens of country and sector context to draw additional learning. Thus, it considers whether additionality can occur beyond the level of a single project—for example, at the country and sector level. Both at the project level and beyond the project, the evaluation derives lessons and offers recommendations on how IFC can further strengthen its additionality. -
Publication
The Rigor of Case-Based Causal Analysis: Busting Myths through a Demonstration
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-02)Several myths persist within research and evaluation circles about the power and limitations of evaluation designs that use cases (or case studies) as their primary empirical material (case-based evaluation designs). Using a real-world application, this paper busts two myths regarding the use of case-based designs in evaluations that aim to answer effectiveness questions and unpack the relationships between interventions and observed changes in outcomes (broadly known as causal analysis): that case studies cannot be used for causal analysis and that it is impossible to generalize from case studies. Through a detailed demonstration of how the evaluation of the World Bank’s support to carbon finance has been designed and implemented, the paper undoes these preconceived ideas about the inferential, explanatory, and generalizability power of case-based evaluation designs. -
Publication
The World Bank’s Role in and Use of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework: Independent Evaluation Group
(Washington, DC, 2023-05-02)This evaluation, requested by the Committee on Development Effectiveness of the Executive Board of the International Development Association (IDA), is intended to provide input and insight into the upcoming World Bank–International Monetary Fund (IMF) review of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LICDSF) currently planned for fiscal year 2023. The sharp rise in debt stress among low-income countries and a changing global risk landscape leading up to and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed concerns with debt sustainability to the top of the global policy agenda. This evaluation assesses the World Bank’s inputs into the LIC-DSF and how it uses LIC-DSF outputs to inform various corporate and country-level decisions. Main findings and recommendations include: (i) Expectations of the World Bank in taking the lead on long-term growth prospects should be clarified. (ii) Recently increased attention to debt data coverage should be sustained and extended; greater attention is needed to assess data quality. (iii) The DSA should be more directly and consistently used to inform priorities for the identification of fiscally oriented prior actions in development policy operations and SDFP performance and policy actions. (iv) The World Bank should continue to give increasing attention in the LIC-DSF to the long-term implications of climate change, in terms of both growth and fiscal requirements of adaptation and mitigation. -
Publication
World Bank Group Support to Somalia, Fiscal Years 2013–22 - Country Program Evaluation (Approach Paper, March 2, 2023)
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-22)Somalia is today among the poorest and most fragile countries in the world, facing myriad development challenges related to ongoing conflict, climate change, food insecurity, natural disasters, and displacement. Overlapping crises related to the COVID-19 pandemic, a prolonged drought, and macroeconomic shocks from rising food and fuel costs have worsened socioeconomic conditions (World Bank 2022). Seventy-one percent of Somalis lived in extreme poverty in 2021, compared with 28 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank 2021). Average life expectancy was 57.4 years, and maternal mortality stood at 734 for every 100,000 births (World Bank 2018d). The country’s Sustainable Development Goal ranking was 160th out of 163. The Somalia Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the evolution of the World Bank Group’s support over fiscal years (FY)13–22 and the extent to which the Bank Group adequately prepared for an eventual normalization of relations with Somalia, tailored its support to the conflict and fragility situation in Somalia and evolving circumstances and country priorities, and learned from experience. It will seek to inform the preparation of the next Somalia Country Partnership Framework (CPF) and may be relevant to broader Bank Group engagement in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). -
Publication
The World Bank Group in Mozambique, Fiscal Years 2008-21 - Country Program Evaluation
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-22)Between 1993 and 2013, Mozambique became one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa boosting incomes and living standards. Political and macroeconomic stability provided the foundation for robust growth led by a rebounding agricultural sector and significant donor support. Growth, however, decelerated beginning in 2016 in the face of low commodity prices, a hidden debt crisis, and natural disasters. In FY18, Mozambique was formally classified as a fragile country. The Covid-19 pandemic further eroded growth. In light of the country’s evolving context, this Country Program Evaluation (CPE) reviews the World Bank Group’s engagement in Mozambique over the period FY08 into FY21. The CPE assesses the extent to which the Bank Group’s support was relevant to Mozambique’s main development challenges and drivers of fragility as well as how Bank Group support evolved and adapted over time. The evaluation delves into four themes that are relevant to Mozambique’s pursuit of the Bank Group’s Twin Goals of Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity: (i) low agricultural productivity; (ii) unequal access to basic services; (iii) weak institutions and governance; and (iv) vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters. The evaluation presents findings from each of the four themes covered and distills lessons from Bank Group experience in Mozambique to inform future strategies and engagements. -
Publication
Evaluation Insight Note: Implementation Lessons from World Bank Operations in Supporting Indigenous Peoples
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-22)This Evaluation Insight Note builds on Independent Evaluation Group evidence to identify lessons for working with Indigenous peoples who live in poverty. Extreme poverty—measured as living on less than US$1.90 a day—is apparent among Indigenous peoples in developing countries. Indigenous peoples have lower levels of employment, living standards, health, and housing. Geographic isolation, linguistic barriers, and lack of political representation affect education and employment opportunities for Indigenous peoples. Yet, Indigenous communities are often highly resilient. A recent study surveying 15 Indigenous communities in six countries in Central America highlights three critical factors—natural capital, cultural capital, and social capital—that account for the resilience shown by these communities in the face of recent extreme climate events and the COVID-19 pandemic. To identify lessons from World Bank operational experience in addressing implementation challenges in reducing poverty among Indigenous peoples, the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) synthesized findings in Project Performance Assessment Reports (PPARs). Additionally, we referenced select academic literature focused on Indigenous peoples and analytical reports by the World Bank and other international organizations. We also drew on Implementation Completion and Results Report Reviews (ICRRs) from Vietnam for an earlier, focused, analysis on Indigenous peoples. This Evaluation Insight Note provides a limited perspective that can be expanded by drawing from other evidence, such as data from community-level civil society organizations engaged with Indigenous peoples. The methodology is summarized at the end of this paper. -
Publication
An Evaluation of World Bank Group Support to Jobs and Labor Market Reform through International Development Association Financing (Approach Paper, March 2, 2023)
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-22)The International Development Association (IDA) has included jobs as a special theme since the 17th Replenishment of IDA (IDA17) in 2014, when it explicitly recognized the role played by labor markets in intermediating between growth and inclusion. This acknowledgment of jobs marked a shift in IDA’s inclusive growth strategy. Before the IDA17 strategy paper, IDA emphasized growth and the use of social safety nets to mitigate the effects of poverty. Beginning in 2014, however, jobs became more central to IDA’s strategy for inclusive growth and for achieving the twin goals. IDA17, the 18th Replenishment of IDA, and the 19th Replenishment of IDA established specific policy commitments and results indicators under the jobs-related special theme. At the same time, the World Bank Group expanded and deepened its attention to jobs, resulting in an increasingly multidimensional jobs agenda characterized by a growing body of lending, technical assistance and diagnostics, and a strong focus on IDA-eligible countries, including through use of the Country Private Sector Diagnostic and IDA’s private sector window. This evaluation will assess IDA’s support for jobs-related objectives over fiscal years (FY)14–22, the period covering three IDA replenishments during which jobs became an IDA special theme (IDA17, the 18th Replenishment of IDA, and the 19th Replenishment of IDA). The objectives of this assessment are to interrogate the contribution of IDA’s Bank Group financing to improving outcomes related to more, better paying, and more inclusive jobs; the role of IDA’s jobs strategy at the corporate, country, and operational levels in this context; and the analytical underpinnings of jobs-related interventions. The evaluation will provide lessons and recommendations to inform the design of the Bank Group’s future multidimensional jobs support and enhance IDA’s effectiveness in this space based on eight years of strategic, diagnostic, and operational experience. -
Publication
World Bank Group Support to Demand-Side Energy Efficiency: An Independent Evaluation March 2, 2023
(Washington DC, 2023-03-14)Improving energy efficiency—using less energy to do the same amount of work—has both supply-side and demand-side aspects. Improvements in energy efficiency are reductions in the energy required to maintain or improve energy services to households, businesses, and communities. Supply-side energy efficiency approaches target energy generation via grid infrastructure, utilities, and power producers. Demand-side energy efficiency (DSEE) focuses on the energy use of industries, commercial entities, and households. The Bank Group has committed to supporting DSEE which focuses on the energy use of industries, commercial entities, and households. DSEE is critical for energy savings and reducing greenhouse gases in line with the Paris Agreement and relevant sustainable development goals (SDGs) and increasingly for contributing to energy security. This evaluation focuses on the World Bank Group’s approaches to DSEE and opportunities to scale them up, and proposes four near-term actions the Bank Group should take: (i) Intensify DSEE support to middle-income countries (MICs) for decarbonization and wider socioeconomic benefits. (ii) Develop energy efficiency sector-specific approaches in a select group of lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) that seek productivity gains alongside or via DSEE, even if EE policy reforms are in early stages. (iii) Expand DSEE approaches by incorporating reduction of indirect emissions (Scope 3), including embodied and operational carbon, in DSEE project design. (iv) Exploit untapped DSEE opportunities and help clients develop innovative approaches that adapt digital and financial solutions from developed countries. -
Publication
The World Bank Group’s Early Support to Addressing the COVID-19 Economic Response, April 2020 - June 2021: An Early-Stage Evaluation
(Washington, DC, 2023)In the face of the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the World Bank delivered the largest crisis response in its history. This evaluation assesses the Bank Group’s early response to the economic crises caused by COVID-19, and examines interventions over the 15 months from April 2020 through June 2021. The report considers two evaluation windows: the acute crisis phase (April 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020) and the incipient recovery phase (January 1, 2021 to June 30, 2021). The objective of identifying the two windows was to assess whether the Bank Group internalized learning from the first period of the crisis to address the challenges that were materializing in the (incipient) recovery phase. The evaluation assesses the relevance of the Bank Group’s interventions on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group targeted its early response based on clients’ and sectors’ needs, the extent to which the Bank Group used timely diagnostics and lessons from past crises to inform its early response, and the extent to which the early response leveraged the Bank Group’s comparative advantages. The evaluation studies the quality of the Bank Group response on three dimensions: the extent to which the Bank Group early response influenced client strategies; the extent to which the Bank Group coordinated its early response among its constituent institutions and with development partners; and how well the Bank Group early response handled monitoring, safeguards, and governance. The evaluation offers two near-term recommendations to strengthen the role of the Bank Group as a crisis responder, which is now more critical than ever. -
Publication
Toward Productive, Inclusive, and Sustainable Farms and Agribusiness Firms: An Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support for the Development of Agrifood Economies (2010–20)
(Washington, DC, 2022-08-29)The purpose of the evaluation is to assess how relevant and effective the World Bank Group has been in its support for agrifood system development (AFSD) —that is, in developing more productive, inclusive, and sustainable farms and agribusiness firms. The evaluation finds that the Bank Group’s interventions (FY 2010–20) were broadly relevant, although gaps remain in scaling up and better targeting support to countries that need it the most. Bank Group interventions were also effective overall in improving productivity, inclusion, and sustainability, but less so in LICs, particularly in West and Central Africa. World Bank interventions that focused on supporting production were less successful than interventions that combined production and market approaches. World Bank support for improving productivity was insufficiently diversified toward higher-value products that offer multiple benefits. IFC agribusiness investments faced challenges meeting environmental and social (E&S) standards, especially in LICs. IEG offers three recommendations to enhance Bank Group support for AFSD. (i) To enhance its effectiveness in developing agrifood systems, the World Bank Group’s efforts to support production technologies should be complemented by efforts to improve market access, especially in LICs and in countries at the traditional stage of agrifood system development. These can be pursued through synergies in Bank Group interventions or with partners; (ii) To achieve more sustainable agrifood systems, where conditions permit, the World Bank Group should support production diversification to meet the growing demand for undersupplied high-value-added, nutritious products while ensuring that smallholder farmers and SMEs benefit from the diversification; and (iii) To enhance the contribution of IFC support for AFSD, IFC should pilot and adopt more effective ways to support clients to better meet E&S Performance Standards, especially in LICs.