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Libya Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Stabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivity
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-06) World Bank
Libya’s economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd in 2024, GDP is anticipated to shrink by 2.7 percent this year. As oil output recovers in 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.2 and 1.3 mbpd, respectively; GDP growth is expected to rebound to 9.6 percent and 8.4 percent in 2026. Meanwhile, non-oil GDP growth is estimated to grow by 1.8 percent in 2024 supported by private and public consumption, and average around 9 percent during 2025–2026 to reflect strong recovery in oil exports. Despite the fall in oil revenues in 2024, both the fiscal and external balances surpluses are expected to widen to 1.7 and 4.1 percent of GDP, respectively, due to contractionary public and capital spending and falling imports. The outlook is subject to significant downside, as well as upside risks. The recent CBL crisis highlights the fragility of the political situation which had a direct short-term impact on the economy. Prospects for political stability and consensus would be a major upside for the Libyan economy and citizens. In the medium term, the main challenge remains economic diversification and reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Lower oil prices not only reduce government revenues but would also add fiscal burden through higher cost of subsidies. Intensification of regional conflicts in the Middle East may disrupt trade, FDI, and financial flows but may also create revenue windfalls for Libya through higher oil prices. Extreme climate events may cause loss of human lives, severe damage to infrastructure, lower growth, and financial instability. The Special Focus Section “Stabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivity” provides an overview of Libya’s past drivers of economic growth and productivity trends. For over a decade now, the conflictual transition has had a devastating impact on the Libyan economy, estimated at US$600 billion in constant 2015 dollars. In 2023, Libya’s GDP absent the conflict is estimated to be 74 percent higher than the realized GDP. The high reliance on the oil sector, weak diversification, low and falling productivity owing to inefficient allocation of labor and capital, and deteriorating health and education quality are some of the key challenges that are holding back Libya’s long term prosperity. In the short-term, priorities should be enhanced security, governance and stability. With GNI per capita at $7,570 (2023), Libya is classified as an upper-middle-income country, however, it falls behind its peers on most development indicators. With the global transition to cleaner and greener energy, Libya’s growth strategy should focus on promoting non-oil sectors with high value-added job opportunities to maintain its upper-middle-income status. This could be achieved by promoting private sector-led growth.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Mounting Burdens on a Crisis-Ridden Country
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-10) World Bank
The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The Monitor places these developments, policies, and findings in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Lebanon.
Algeria Economic Update, Fall 2024: A Holistic Framework for Sustained Export Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-04) World Bank
This Algeria Economic Update reports on the main recent economic developments and policies. It places them in a global and longer term context and assesses the implications of these developments and policy changes for Algeria’s economic prospects. The report is intended for a broad audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals working in/on Algeria. The report is divided into three chapters. Chapter 1 presents macroeconomic developments in Algeria over the year 2023 and the first half of 2024, while Chapter 2 describes the short- and medium-term outlook for the Algerian economy, and Chapter 3 presents macroeconomic considerations in support of non-hydrocarbon export development. This report is based on data available on October 30, 2024.
Tunisia Economic Monitor: Equity and Efficiency of Tunisia Tax System - Fall 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-14) World Bank
The Tunisian economy experienced a modest growth of 0.6 percent in the first half of 2024, following zero growth in 2023. By the end of 2024, Tunisia is projected to be the only country in its region with a real GDP still below pre-pandemic levels. The limited recovery in agriculture, coupled with declines in the oil and gas, garments, and construction sectors, hindered economic growth. Below-average rainfall restricted agricultural growth, which only recovered a third of the significant losses from the first half of 2023. The garment sector suffered due to reduced demand from the European Union, Tunisia's main export market. Oil and gas production continued its decade-long decline due to a lack of new investments, and the construction sector was impacted by limited domestic demand and challenging external financing conditions.
Morocco Economic Monitor, Summer 2024: Unlocking the Potential of the Private Sector to Spur Growth and Job Creation
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-17) World Bank
This report includes a special focus chapter focused on the dynamics of the Moroccan private sector. It is based on the results of an analysis jointly conducted with the Moroccan Observatory of Small and Medium Enterprises (OMTPME) which exploits a comprehensive database on formal firms. The productivity performance of the private sector has been lackluster, primarily due to a worsening of allocative efficiency. Larger firms tend to exhibit a lower productivity than their smaller peers, suggesting that markets are not sufficiently rewarding more efficient and innovative firms. In addition, Moroccan SMEs struggle to grow, and the density of High Growth Firms remains very low. This is problematic feature of the private sector given that in other settings such firms have been shown to disproportionately contribute to job creation. Addressing the constraints facing the private sector would help overcome the disappointing job creation capacity that the Moroccan economy has exhibited in recent years.
Algeria Economic Update, Spring 2024: Investing in Data for Diversified Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-23) World Bank
Algeria’s growth was robust in 2023, and inflation started to decelerate. GDP growth accelerated to 4.1 percent, supported by hydrocarbon sector growth, as natural gas production compensated for successive crude oil production quota cuts. Non-extractive GDP growth reached 3.7 percent as investment growth accelerated, supported by a marked recovery in public investment, and leading to a surge in imports. Private consumption remained dynamic, stimulated by growing public sector wages, and pulling sectors serving households. Inflation remained at 9.3 percent over 2023 but moderated to 5.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, amidst a sustained decline in fresh food prices, a strong dinar, and lower import prices. Continuing to strengthen data systems would support investment and public policymaking. In 2023 and 2024, digitalization efforts accelerated, as did efforts from the Bank of Algeria and ONS to strengthen their publications, with notably the first GDP rebasing. The alternative data sources used in this report, such as satellite data on crop development or nighttime lights, represent a useful complement to conventional economic and social statistics. Yet, improving the availability, granularity, and timeliness of official economic data, most notably relating to activity, investment, and the labor market, remains of utmost importance. Enhanced data systems would support the authorities’ pivot towards performance-based budgeting and support evidence-based policymaking. They would also provide accurate and exhaustive economic data to researchers and analysts, potential domestic and international investors, alleviating economic uncertainty and fostering investment.
Tunisia Economic Monitor, Spring 2024: Renewed Energy to the Economy
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-09) World Bank
Tunisia’s already modest economic recovery almosthalted in 2023, amidst a severe drought, tight financingconditions and the modest pace of implementingreforms. With this slowdown, the Tunisian economy in2023 was still below its pre-Covid level, marking oneof the slowest recoveries in the Middle East and NorthAfrican region. Agriculture was the main driver of the2023 economic slowdown, declining by 11 percent asthe drought forced the government to introduce irrigationrestrictions. This highlights the urgency for Tunisiato adapt to climate change. The weak domesticdemand and the fiscal consolidation appear to haveadded to the drought-related losses, with the declinesin construction and commerce sectors offsetting someof the gains from export markets, particularly tourism.The growth slowdown–especially in labor-intensivesectors–translated into higher unemployment andlower labor force participation.
Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2023 - Building Success, Breaking Barriers: Unlocking the Economic Power of Women in Jordan
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-21) World Bank
Jordan’s real growth registered 2.4 percent in 2022 and has accelerated to 2.7 percent in H1-2023, compared to a pre-COVID-19 (2012-2019) average of 2.4 percent. Growth was supported by the services sector, agriculture sector, in addition to a robust contribution from agriculture. Inflation decelerated significantly in 2023, supported by favorable base effect, monetary policy tightening and lower global commodity prices. External imbalances have narrowed, supported by a string recovery in tourism activity and travel receipts. Central government fiscal balance was supported by economic growth and revenue-enhancing reforms, whereas total expenditure grew at a slower pace. Despite these positive developments, entrenched structural constraints weigh on labor market outcomes, as labor force participation continues its gradual decline driven by a fall in both male and female participation. Jordanian female labor participation remains among the lowest in the world. Debt-to-GDP ratios continues to rise from already elevated levels with persisting pressures from the electricity and water sectors. The global and regional environments remain challenging. In particular, the conflict in the Middle East has the potential for material economic spillovers on the Jordanian economy, including through its impact on tourism activity. The “In Focus” section highlights the role of women and their increased economic participation as central to Jordan’s development agenda. The piece takes a life cycle approach and follows the journey of girls and women from birth through education and into the labor market. It sheds light on two of the main barriers to women’s increased participation in the economy: childcare and public transportation. A comprehensive institutional renovation, together with enabling policies and a clear signal regarding the role of women, are all crucial in removing barriers and facilitate the integration of women into the labor force.
Morocco Economic Monitor, Fall 2023: From Resilience to Shared Prosperity
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-20) World Bank
The Moroccan economy is recovering. Following a sharp deceleration in 2022 caused by various overlapping commodity and climatic shocks, economic growth increased to 2.9 percent in the first semester of 2023, driven primarily by services and net exports. Inflation has halved between February and August 2023, but food inflation remains high. Lower commodity prices havealso contributed to a temporary narrowing of the current account deficit. The response to recent crises and the unfolding reform of the health and social protection systems are exerting pressures on public spending. However, the government is managing to gradually reduce the budget deficit.
Algeria Economic Update, Fall 2023: Continuing the Diversification Effort
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-08) World Bank
Algeria’s GDP recovered to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, while high oil and gas prices allowed for marked improvements in its external and fiscal balances. The recovery continued during the first half of 2023, albeit at a slower pace, supported by nonhydrocarbon activity and investment. Oil and natural gas prices and exports declined in H1–2023, adding pressure on external and fiscal balances. Inflation remained elevated, reaching 9.7 percent in H1–2023, now driven by fresh food prices, mostly produced domestically. Growth is expected to recover in 2024 and 2025, while the fiscal and external balances would stabilize after an initial drop. The macroeconomic outlook hinges on volatile hydrocarbon prices, and the regional context underscores the reality of the climate risks to which Algeria is also exposed. These risks underscore the importance of sustainably improving macroeconomic balances, while continuing efforts to foster private sector-led investment, growth, and diversification. Diversifying export revenues away from hydrocarbons and attracting foreign investment would improve Algeria’s resilience to oil and gas price fluctuations. On the fiscal front, higher spending rigidity contrasts with volatile hydrocarbon revenues, generating significant uncertainty. This underlines the need to raise more tax revenues and strengthen spending efficiency in an equitable way, notably that of public investment. Consistent with the 2021 Government Action Plan, continued implementation of reforms to stimulate private sector to become the engine of sustainable and diversified growth remains essential to the performance and resilience of the Algerian economy.