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Tunisia Economic Monitor, Winter 2021: Economic Reforms to Navigate Out of the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-20) World Bank

The Economic Monitor examines four possible factors behind Tunisia’s slow recovery. First, the drop in mobility related to the pandemic may have been more harmful in Tunisia. However, mobility in Tunisia has dropped to a similar extent as other countries and it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels following the acceleration in the vaccination campaign since July. If anything, the mobility drop in Tunisia has resulted in a lower reduction in economic activity than in comparator countries as Algeria and Egypt. Second, it could be that the level of public support to the ailing firms and households may have been particularly low. However, at 2.3 percent of GDP, the Covid-19 stimulus package in 2020 was in the same ballpark as other comparators in the region. Third, the structure of the Tunisian economy, particularly its reliance on tourism, may have exposed it to the negative demand shock more than other countries. Indeed hotels, cafe and restaurant and transport are the sectors which have contracted the most since the start of the pandemic. The losses of these sectors explain a significant portion of the negative effects of the crisis in Tunisia, although they do not fully account for such slow recovery.
Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting Course

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022) World Bank

Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting Course provides the first comprehensive analysis of the pandemic’s toll on poverty in developing countries. It identifies how governments can optimize fiscal policy to help correct course. Fiscal policies offset the impact of COVID-19 on poverty in many high-income countries, but those policies offset barely one quarter of the pandemic’s impact in low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries. Improving support to households as crises continue will require reorienting protective spending away from generally regressive and inefficient subsidies and toward a direct transfer support system—a first key priority. Reorienting fiscal spending toward supporting growth is a second key priority identified by the report. Some of the highest-value public spending often pays out decades later. Amid crises, it is difficult to protect such investments, but it is essential to do so. Finally, it is not enough just to spend wisely - when additional revenue does need to be mobilized, it must be done in a way that minimizes reductions in poor people’s incomes. The report highlights how exploring underused forms of progressive taxation and increasing the efficiency of tax collection can help in this regard. Poverty and Shared Prosperity is a biennial series that reports on global trends in poverty and shared prosperity. Each report also explores a central challenge to poverty reduction and boosting shared prosperity, assessing what works well and what does not in different settings. By bringing together the latest evidence, this corporate flagship report provides a foundation for informed advocacy around ending extreme poverty and improving the lives of the poorest in every country in the world. For more information, please visit worldbank.org/poverty-and-shared-prosperity.
The World Bank Annual Report 2022: Helping Countries Adapt to a Changing World

(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022) World Bank

The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submit the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-11-22) Hoogeveen, Johannes G. ; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys ; Hoogeveen, Johannes G. ; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys

COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about $227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Pre-pandemic MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. This Report investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with micro-simulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty and inequality. The two approaches perform a complementary task by corroborating each other’s results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This Report’s results show that in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly, and that inequality will widen. A group of “new poor” is likely to emerge that may have difficulty to recover from the economic consequences of the pandemic. The Report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modelled micro-macro simulations and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive and sustained economic recovery.
The World Bank Annual Report 2021: From Crisis to Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Recovery

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-10-01) World Bank

The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submits the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
Remarks at the Human Capital Conclave

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-05) Malpass, David

David Malpass, President of the World Bank, discussed the importance of investing in human capital for a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery from the Coronavirus disease crisis. He highlighted three important measures: 1) investing in people; 2) efficient expenditures and good governance; and 3) freeing up fiscal space.
Living with Debt: How Institutions Can Chart a Path to Recovery in Middle East and North Africa

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-04-02) Gatti, Roberta ; Lederman, Daniel ; Nguyen, Ha M. ; Alturki, Sultan Abdulaziz ; Fan, Rachel Yuting ; Islam, Asif M. ; Rojas, Claudio J.

Economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain in crisis. The World Bank estimates the regional output to have contracted 3.8 percent in 2020 and expects it to rebound by only 2.2 percent in 2021. The regional output is expected to be 7.2% below where it would be in 2021 without the pandemic. The region’s average GDP per capita is estimated to have declined 5.3 percent in 2020 and expected to rebound by only 0.6 percent in 2021. The number of poor people in the region—those making less than the $5.50 per day poverty line—is expected to increase from 176 million in 2019 to a conservative estimate of 192 million people by the end of 2021. The region’s public debt is expected to rise significantly. Most notably, MENA oil importers have the highest levels of debt. As the region copes with the economic consequences of the pandemic, most countries will face tensions between short-term needs and the long-term risks of debt-financed government spending. Countries must make tough choices along the road to recovery. During the pandemic, fiscal spending is arguably best used to support vulnerable families and invest in public health—such as disease surveillance, data transparency, and vaccinations. Public health investment as a short-term response to the pandemic could also bring long-term gains. As the pandemic subsides, there are good reasons to be cautious with additional fiscal stimulus, especially for countries with high debt, poor governance, and lack of transparency. After the pandemic, economic growth remains the most sustainable way to reduce the debt-GDP ratio, and this requires much-needed deep structural reforms. Strong institutions can chart a path to recovery. Investing in testing, disease surveillance, and data transparency can reduce the economic costs of the pandemic. As the pandemic subsides, effective and transparent pandemic surveillance would help boost demand from domestic and foreign sources. Good governance in public investment decisions can raise the effectiveness of public investment. Public debt transparency can help reduce borrowing costs. Institutional reforms can be implemented with limited fiscal costs and hold the promise of boosting long-run growth.
Remarks to the World Food Programme Executive Board

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-16) Malpass, David

World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about how in its first year, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is pushing one hundred fifty million people into extreme poverty, ending two decades of steady progress on poverty reduction. Coronavirus (COVID-19) has altered every aspect of commercial activity and trade, shrinking gross domestic products (GDP), fueling a debt crisis and triggering severe food crises. He cautioned about the long-standing problems in the global food system, and how World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated that the number of people facing acute food insecurity will double to two hundred sixty-five million people in 2020. He spoke about working along with IMF on effective approaches for debt reduction and debt resolution to address low income countries’ unsustainable debt burdens. He highlighted on establishing a fast-track Coronavirus (COVID) response that has delivered emergency support to one hundred twelve countries so far. He explained that in response to the global food security crisis, the World Bank Group has significantly stepped up investments to strengthen food security in client countries.
Speech at the 2020 Annual Meetings Plenary

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-15) Malpass, David

David Malpass, President of the World Bank, spoke about what the World Bank Group has accomplished since last year’s Annual Meetings, particularly the response to COVID-19 and progress made on debt transparency. The COVID-19 pandemic’s toll has been enormous, and people in the poorest countries are likely to suffer the longest and hardest. In response, the approach at the World Bank Group has been comprehensive, focused on saving lives, protecting the poor and vulnerable, working toward sustainable business growth, and rebuilding in better ways. He touched on the four most urgent aspects of this work: 1) poverty and inequality; 2) human capital; 3) debt burdens; and 4) fostering an inclusive and resilient recovery. The scale of the challenges ahead is staggering. IDA-19’s three-year envelope of USD82 billion will not be nearly enough to meet the needs of the world’s poorest countries at this desperate time. IDA has taken broad and fast action to frontload IDA-19 resources and provide surge financing this year to support the initial efforts to address the economic and health impacts of COVID. A USD25 billion supplemental COVID emergency financing package will avert a “financing cliff” in FY22-23 and make available additional resources to IDA countries to support their recoveries.
Reversing the Inequality Pandemic

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-05) Malpass, David

World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that has already changed our world decisively and forced upon the world a painful transformation. He explained the World Bank Group’s approach that has been comprehensive by focusing on saving lives, protecting the poor and vulnerable, ensuring sustainable business growth, and rebuilding in better ways. He focused on four urgent aspects of this work: (i) first, the need to redouble efforts to alleviate poverty and inequality; (ii) second, the associated loss of human capital and what must be done to restore it; (iii) third, the urgent need to help the poorest countries make their government debt more transparent and permanently reduce their debt burdens, two necessary steps to attract effective investment; and (iv) finally, how we can cooperate to facilitate the changes needed for an inclusive and resilient recovery.